Albeit still within the margin of error, but in any case... Yikes! I'm starting to think it's going to happen, folks. I really am. Clinton is a horribly weak and flawed candidate, and from what I've seen so far she has neither the wit nor the charisma to challenge the oompa-loompa in a head-to-head battle. Start getting used to it, folks. President Trump is going to take some getting used to, after all.
Why do we always get stuck with the worst possible candidates? Well, if Trump wins there will be some very beautiful people in the White House.
Talk to me in 3 weeks. I said as soon as Trump clinched his nom that we would see some tightening in the polls. Clinton still lead in the aggregate (average) polls, but not by as much as she did. But this was predictable, given how freaking tribal we've become. One Trump clinched, most Republicans - many of whom in polls in March and April said they'd never vote for Trump if he was the nominee - have gotten used to the idea and consolidated behind him. So the vast majority of Republican voters are now saying they'll vote for Trump in these polls. Meanwhile there's a fairly sizable slice of the Democratic electorate still holding out hope for Sanders. I think that's the moment we're in now, and it's a specific moment that may not last. After Clinton clinches, I think most Democrats will - like those Republicans who said they'd never vote for Trump - get used to the idea and consolidate behind her. I think how Sanders concedes is important... but then again, it's not like Cruz or most of Trump's main rivals gave him anything like enthusiastic endorsements (Christie did, but I'm talking Trump's main rivals who actually lasted) and still most GOP voters have fallen in line. Let's see what the polls say a week or two after the CA/NJ primaries. Especially if Sanders is even semi-conciliatory and sends the message that "Donald Trump in the antithesis of everything our movement is about," then I think you'll see Clinton widen her lead back to about where it was a month ago. Then the conventions happen, and it starts to get serious. Let's all remember that Dukakis was leading in the polls at this point in '88, Bush was leading at this point in '92... I'm NOT saying Trump couldn't win. He could. We're so tribal that each major party candidate starts with about 40% as a base no matter how flat-out unqualified he is, and look no further than this year for proof. Then it's basically up for grabs. So it could happen, but it's not anything like a done deal yet. If "President Trump" sounds scary to you, you should consider WORKING to prevent it. I did some work for Obama in PA on weekends in '08 (because NY was considered a lock), and I may do the same this year.
I remember all those polls that had Obama and that Mormon in a dead heat. Right up to election day. Fingers crossed that these polls are just as arbitrary and flawed.
Nationwide polls mean very little. Until we have state by state polls and projected electoral vote totals, we really don't have anything. My gut feeling is that electoral projections will show Hillary well in the lead.
My powers of prognostication are about as good as a Magic Eight Ball, since I thought Trump would have been finished by the end of last August. So I'm not really comforted by any polling data these days since so much of this political season is all-new terrain. The professional pundits have no better track record this time around than I do. Trump's advantage is that he really can't seem to say anything that will shake his supporters loose, so the old threat of a candidate saying something offensive or shocking is pretty much off the table for Trump. Hillary can't say anything to win Republicans over. So once again, the outcome will hinge on those undecideds and who bothers to vote in November. I can't fathom how anyone could be undecided when presented with two such very different candidates like this, but somehow, undecideds still exist.
Until the whole of Congress is wrestled from the hands of the five-year-old brats currently running it... Trump in the White House doesn't really matter at this point, with one exception: SCOTUS nominees. That single POTUS authority is justification enough to keep Trump out. But even if Clinton wins, she's going to have an even larger hurdle than Obama to get anything accomplished. It will be the Obstruct Obama campaign on steroids. The Dems need a solid two-thirds of the Senate and a majority in the House to get anything done. Period. Taking back the Senate in November won't make much of a difference unless Schumer can do the one thing Reid refused to do, and that's go nuclear option. And how likely is that to happen? Seriously, it's over. The oligarchs won. The One Percent controls our country, our government... everything. Unless the Dems can take back full control of D.C. nothing is going to change. And that's not likely to happen until many more people become far more desperate than they are right now. Trump isn't the problem. Trump is a symptom of a political tuberculosis that's been slowly eating away at our democracy since Reagan infected the nation. And the only cure is an antibiotic so powerful that many support systems will become long-term disabled if not permanently disabled as a result. Just like trying to cure the real tuberculosis. It's going to be ugly. It's going to be deadly. But it's the only way our democratic republic will ultimately survive.
Funny you would mention Reagan. That is who I was thinking about when I got on here. I was pretty young but I do remember that when he said he was going to run for governor of California........ Most of us thought that was a joke too.
It's great to hear from various generational perspectives on stuff like this. I've heard many liberals mention this, but I was 9 when he became president so I didn't experience Hollywood Reagan (political version aside lol), and he never seemed like as much of a joke to me. However, I recall many of the adults remarking about "Bedtime for Bonzo" and whatnot, so it wasn't completely foreign for me — just not quite tangible. But growing up with his presidency as I did, and despite his comforting uncle persona, I was able to take note of his many missteps and outright crimes while in office. Some good stuff, sure, but a lot of bad too, along with heaps of irresponsible shenanigans he shouldn't have gotten away with. He got by with a lot due to his enormous popularity, and the times we were living in. Fast forward to the younger generations, the ones who never experienced his administration, and you've got this cult of personality where Saint Reagan is the pinacle of all things conservative (he wasn't). And folks like Obama (Obama! Who clearly should've known better!) talking him up adds even more fuel to that bizarro fire. Which begs the question...will there ever be a time in the future where Trump comes to be regarded as a legitimate statesman?
Tell a lie enough times................................... There is a wonderful book by Will Bunch called "Tear Down This Myth ". It is well written and factual. The author points out things he did well and sites sources. It also points out the many things for which Reagan was given credit in which he actually had no part. I just wish I could get some of my Reagan worshipping friends to read it. So far, none have taken me up on it.
One of my favorite quotes: "Reagan taking credit for ending the cold war is like the rooster taking credit for the sunrise."
>>will there ever be a time in the future where Trump comes to be regarded as a legitimate statesman?<< It's certainly possible, because the bar keeps lowering in the GOP. I thought we'd reached the depths when Palin came along, but no, that was just the beginning. Then there was Herman Cain, and bizarro brain doctor. If you look at the whole set of folks who ran for the GOP nomination this time, it was a collection of extremism and crazy that made George W. Bush seem like George W. Washington. The thing that helps me sleep (fitfully) at night is that, even if he should win, 99 44/100% of the nonsense promises he's made are constitutionally and/or fiscally impossible. I hope that his nomination fires up Democrats and moderates to actually bother to vote in the fall, but I think Trump is entirely about Trump, and he will most likely sway they way the popular wind blows should he be elected. He'll walk away from positions at the drop of a hat, because he does it constantly. And when challenged on it, he'll look the questioner square in the eyes and say he never made that promise or that he was "always" against/for this or that. Which is kind of true, because his positions are constructed on a firm foundation of populist Jello. But the thing that keeps me awake is knowing how dangerous a mob can be. Angry people make terrible decisions, and TV celebrity is worth pure gold in forming public opinion. There's a whole lot of angry, uniformed people out there who believe in Trump's magical powers and his vapid, compulsive lies. And they WILL vote in the fall.
I also think Trump could do lasting damage to international relations as well as our own economy. I can see major companies ramp up offshoring, because who needs the headaches. Trump is the sort of racist that is absolutely unaware of how racist he is, the drunk uncle who "loves the blacks" and then goes on a rant filled with racist stereotypes. And even though there are plenty of racists who will happily support him, their numbers are slowly fading. I see this as (hopefully) their last angry breath on the big political stage.
<Which is kind of true, because his positions are constructed on a firm foundation of populist Jello.> Remember way back in the olden days of 2004, when Republicans called out John Kerry for supposedly flip-flopping on a host of issues (only 2 or 3 of which were legit), and saying that you therefore couldn't trust his positions, which made him unqualified for the presidency; whereas with George W. Bush, even if you didn't agree with him, at least you knew where he stood? I don't think they do. Now, you hear apologists saying about Trump, "It's not flip-flopping, it's remaining flexible. Unpredictable. And that's a good thing. We need more of that." It just goes to show that people (and I include Democrats here) can talk themselves into almost any position they want if it backs up "their side."
It just goes to show that people (and I include Democrats here) can talk themselves into almost any position they want if it backs up "their side."<< Absolutely. I am talking myself into voting for Hillary even though I'm not thrilled about it, which means overlooking a lot of stuff. But I think a minimal requirement for president is at least having been elected to at least once, so that there is a track record of some sort, some example of being able to work within government, some level of understanding how government works. The romantic notion that some "outsider" is going to show up and "fix everything" is such childish revenge fantasy.
Comes from growing up with Dirty Harry, Harry Potter, and Katniss Everdeen. All three were outsiders who brought change. But the idiot fans keep forgetting... lots and lots and lots of people died in the process.
The "BernieOrBusters" pretty much make me wanna hurl. I've heard these idiots phone in to Thom Hartmann's show on Sirius/XM. And they are NOT trolls. They are totally and completely earnest in their arguments! They seriously believe TRUMP would be a "more truthful hence more trustworthy" POTUS than Hillary! GOODEFFNGAWD!!! How many times did their mothers drop them on their heads??? I am mortified at the potential -- possibly permanent -- damage Bernie's campaign has done to the Democrats. Just like Trump, Bernie has been some kind of political magnet for white voters who not only feel disenfranchised, but downright entitled to do ANYTHING to get their guy elected. Or their runner-up. Don't get me wrong; most of the Bernie supporters are disenfranchised, decent folks. They support Bernie because they desperately hope to change our political mess before it's too late and believe Bernie is their best shot. But there's this other group of mostly young white professional males who are ANYTHING but disenfranchised (I'm looking at YOU, Mr "Feel The Bern" Google Techie, spending $300 on five days worth of groceries at Whole Foods and being a TOTALLY rude MTHRFCKR to the hardworking cashier for NO REASON WHATSOEVER!!!) yet feel they're disenfranchised for a host of illogical reasons. And these jokers believe the only way to "FIX" politics is to throw the baby out with the bathwater and bring in outsiders. Yeah. Let's burn everything to the ground and start from scratch. Yeah. Let's chop off the entire nose for a tiny 1mm spot of skin cancer on the tip. How amazingly STUPID for people with ivy-league college educations.
