Trump Pulls Ahead on 538.com

Discussion in 'World Events' started by Mr. X, Jul 25, 2016.

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  1. Mr. X

    Mr. X Active Member

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  2. Dabob2

    Dabob2 Well-Known Member

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    Me too. But not petrified. He got a fairly typical convention bounce.

    If he's still ahead 10 days from now then I'll be petrified.

    Pretty good first night of the DNC so far. Listening to Bernie now.
     
  3. mawnck

    mawnck Well-Known Member

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    Convention bounce.

    And I have absolute faith in Trump to put a stop to that with some stupid declaration or other. He said something tonight about literally shaking down NATO for higher payments.

    Trump Doubles Down On NATO Comments: 'We Have To Walk'

    And of course the Putin-is-behind-Wikileaks story is still heating up ...
     
  4. iamsally

    iamsally Well-Known Member

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    I will not rest well until it is all over. But I keep remembering how they kept saying 2012 was "too close to call" and look what happened. Hopefully these numbers are just as skewed. I really do not know what we will do if the worst happens. Leaving the country is not off the table.
     
  5. Kar2oonman

    Kar2oonman Active Member

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    There's really nothing logical that shows why the country should want to take a hard right turn with Trump. The economy is far better off than it was 8 years ago by any reasonable measure. Not perfect by any means, but clearly, objectively better.

    But that doesn't matter to Trumpettes. Key to his support are people who are getting a kick out of his constant tweets and insults. It's a thumb in the eye of the "elites" and the "establishment", and what mob of villagers doesn't enjoy that? His supporters hate the media (ironic, considering Trump is the embodiment of a media creation), they hate the "others", they really seem to pay zero attention to details. Which works great, since Trump really isn't giving much specifics. Mindless bumper sticker rage, with no constitutional backup, and his supporters lap it up giddily.
     
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  6. DAR1974

    DAR1974 Active Member

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    Trump makes all of these promises but here's the likely outcome for his supporters.

    [​IMG]
     
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  7. EighthDwarf

    EighthDwarf Active Member

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    The Trump (and, to some extent, Bernie) phenomenon has exposed a serious divide in our country, one that may actually be irreconcilable: the divide between thinkers and believers, the rational and the irrational. One easy example of this is when the Republicans start talking about the current state of the economy, crime statistics, etc. (anyone see Newt Gingrich in the John Oliver show Sunday night?). Facts don't matter, what matters is only what they BELIEVE to be true (i.e. what they WANT to be true). This has long been evident in the religion versus science debate but has now infected virtually every topic in the political conversation. People BELIEVE illegal immigration is to blame for so many of society's ills even though facts strongly show the opposite. People BELIEVE free trade is bad for the economy even though the facts contradict that. People BELIEVE Obama and Clinton want to take their guns away, despite zero evidence supporting this and mountains of evidence against it, so they refuse to even discuss gun legislation. People BELIEVE Obama is a Muslim.......

    When people disengage from rational thought and discussion, when they have no interest in what the facts are, what the truth is, it is an invitation for a dynamic leader to step in and say what they want to hear. Thankfully, Trump is a buffoon and is incapable of doing too much damage, even if he is elected. What worries me is that the political soil is becoming very fertile for something much more heinous. We have a lot of angry people right now despite the economy doing fairly well so imagine what it would be like if we were in the middle of a serious economic downturn. How long do you think it would take for these people to BELIEVE that Mexicans and Muslims are to blame and to demand serious action against them? Or to BELIEVE that our country is being punished for our positions on homosexuality and abortion? With the right type of leader and the right type of environment, these irrational believers could be stirred up into something truly frightening and there wouldn't be enough logic around to quell it.

    The sad part is that we have willingly done this to ourselves. Our own "democratic" system has led us here. Our political system relies on money. People donate money when they are stirred emotionally, not logically, so most politicians do everything they can to rile people up. That's how they get the funding they need. That's how the gain power, retain power: by turning people into irrational, emotional beings. How many political donations are gathered every day at anti-abortion meetings, at NRA dinners, at rallies against free trade? Have you ever donated money to a cause when you are promised a good compromised solution that makes sense? Of ocurse not. Emotion leads to power, logic leads to [yawn] progress.

    I have probably failed in making this clear, but this is not a Republican versus Democrat issue, it is a thinker versus believer issue. The thinker can defend his position rationally, with facts -- the believer can't -- and, yes, there are many rational thinkers on the right just are there are many irrational believers on the left. And yet the thinkers are at risk of being defeated by the believers. That's what this election is about for me. Can the thinkers defeat the believers? I have my doubts but they must.....or god help us.
     
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  8. mawnck

    mawnck Well-Known Member

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    Defying the laws of physics? (Sorry, that scene drives me nuts.)
     
  9. Kar2oonman

    Kar2oonman Active Member

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    Defy the laws of physics? They never studied law.
    (Borrowed from Roadrunner.)
     
  10. Kar2oonman

    Kar2oonman Active Member

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    Very well said, Eighth Dwarf.
     
  11. Kar2oonman

    Kar2oonman Active Member

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    He can't possibly deliver on most of the more outlandish promises he's spit out during this campaign. (When challenged, he often shrugs it off as if it's all in the distant past, water under the bridge, whatevuh.) But what he can do, at least, is continue the hate-filled, racist, dismissive, know-it-all attitude that will stir up turmoil and home and abroad. I keep hearing Trump supporters saying that he will "surround himself with good people." He thinks Roger Ailes is good people. If he has advisors, they are YES men, because no one is stopping him saying crazy stuff.
     
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  12. iamsally

    iamsally Well-Known Member

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    If I could like it 4X or love it; I WOULD!!!!!
     

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