Trump Campaign Collapsing?

I feel like he's going to bail out. Like he's been pinking us for some reality show.

 

It's quite telling that none of surviving Presidents, including both Bush's do not support Trump. And I just read that Meg Whitman will actually be backing Hillary.

 

It seems like once that starts, there's going to be a tipping point where they just pile on him and smother him.

 

I think it will vary by state deadlines, but yes, the Republicans are entitled to pick whomever they want, by any means they choose.

Would that person have a shot in the General? Uh, sure. As long as the Trump supporters don't get mad. ;-)

 

Trump threatened riots if (in what seemed a plausible possibility in Feb/March) he got to Cleveland with the largest plurality of delegates, but not a majority, and therefore the convention would be contested and have to go past a first ballot.

In other words, if delegates became unbound on 2nd (or 3rd or 4th) ballots and decided to vote for someone else - which, of course, is completely within party rules - he threatened his people would riot.

What would they do if he literally had the nomination taken away from him after being anointed? The mind boggles.

Of course, if he himself whines that the whole thing is "rigged" and bails out on his own, that might be a little different. Then who knows what could happen. One thing I do know is that Pence would not automatically rise to be the nominee. He was nominated for VP, which is technically a separate thing entirely. He might be in the running, but the RNC would have to meet and choose someone else for the top slot.

It would certainly be chaos in the short run. Cruz would certainly put himself in there (might even take it as a sign that he really was divinely "chosen" to be President), but I doubt he'd be the only one clamoring for it. Lord knows how many ballots it would take and I'm not even sure who within the RNC is authorized to have a vote on it. I saw one report that said "about 100 people," but it didn't say who they were, how they were chosen, or if they're already chosen just in case something like this happens.

Would this new nominee have a better chance against Clinton than Trump? Quite possibly.* The polls say she's the most unpopular major party candidate ever... except for Trump. But would the chaos leave a bad taste in voters' mouths and make the Republicans look like amateur hour? Quite possibly. So much would depend on when and how it all went down.

At a certain point it could be difficult to get the new name on the ballot in certain states. I'm not sure when that point is, though.

*I don't think Cruz would. He's extremely unlikable himself, polls from the Spring showed Clinton beating him in the General, and Trump supporters (a significant chunk of GOP voters now) really, really, really can't stand him. He pointedly refused to endorse their man at the convention, and Trump hasn't even pretended to make nice with him since the Spring. He's also the guy Trump most accused of trying to "rig" the convention itself through the delegate process, thus turning his acolytes against Cruz even more. Enough Trump supporters hate Cruz that I don't think he could beat Clinton.

 

I posted this in another thread, but it may be more appropriate here:

"I saw a very astute piece by a Republican who said that what could really start the flood (or at least a mini-flood) of Republicans disowning Trump is the fact that primary season is coming to a close (some states don't hold their primaries till August or even early September).

In this theory, Republican officials worried about being "primaried" by those farther to their right have been holding their tongues, wary of ticking off the base and rabid Trump supporters. Once the primaries are over, that worry goes away, plus they now have to appeal to a general electorate, which is different from the GOP primary electorate.

The redder the district, the less true that is. But for those in even somewhat purple districts, or state-wide officials like Senators and Governors, the calculations change once the primaries are over.

True, it might not be "profiles in courage" for these guys to disown Trump after the primaries. But it may turn the trickle of disowning into something more of steady stream."

 

Today's revelation by Joe Scarborough that in a one hour briefing, trump asked 3 times why we can't use nukes ought to be enough to give everyone pause. But most, if not all, Trump supporters probably think, "Hey, yeah. He's right! Why can't we just nuke ISIS? That's what they're there for, right?"

 

So who cursed the world with, "may you live in interesting times?"

Although, philosophically, I'm not sure when we decided that a peaceful and prosperous world (mostly) was the normal state of affairs. I am starting to feel like all of this is just a "regression to the mean." The last 70 years, especially the last 30 (end and post cold war) has been merely an aberration in human history and now we're going back to the way things used to be: conflict and struggle. I don't have much faith in a large enough chunk of society to believe that we can avoid "licking the frozen pole." The Italian Job re-make's definition of FINE (freaked out, insecure, neurotic and emotional) is a good descriptor for a lot of people right now. And it doesn't seem to be compatible with intelligence, reason, cooperation, measured approach or any of the values we would, as a society, claim to want out of our leaders. It's been so easy (relatively) people have no concept of what bad really looks like.

Anyway, on one hand I can't believe how we could end up here. But on the other hand, I wonder how could we not.

 

Very insightful hopemax.

Anybody besides be remember *Bury* Goldwater? He went down to a landslide and I have to imagine the same for Trump or I will never get another night's sleep.

 

The problem is that the people that voted down Goldwater, even though he was talking tough, were people that have seen the really bad side of humans. They were people that experienced not always getting a trophy just for participating. They were the ones that had to work for things and, dare I say, listened to country music that was about love or real individual human problems, not how we were going to put a boot up someones butt. We had just done that in WWII and took a lot on the chin during the Korean and Vietnam conflict. Our lives were not just about milk and cookies and who could speak the loudest. Those people, or many of them, have gotten off this mortal coil since then and what is left are spoiled, entitled grown up child like people that just want everything their own way with no idea what reality is.

I have a very educated daughter that believes everything that Drump has ever said, no matter how ridiculous it might be. I guess I sheltered her a bit too much, because she doesn't seem to realize just how bad things can be. She hasn't realized that she has two children and a nephew that are old enough to be brought into a conflict should it get serious enough. She's not thinking about that, she is thinking that "the mouth" will solve our problems by school yard bullying. What she doesn't seem to understand is that there are other bigger, badder bullies out there that will not be intimidated by a 6 foot pile of manure with red hair or whatever that is on top of the pile. It is my real hope that she uses those brain cells soon and realize what a mistake she is making at least before the election.

 

That alone speaks volumes.

My condolences. Seriously. I would have such a hard time with that. *I told ya so!* just isn't enough payback for a ruined country and possibly world.

 

So small wonder they like Trump - the poster boy for all of the above!