Originally Posted By Dabob2 ***Well, the polls are saying at this point that Hillary would win handily over Trump.*** <True enough, though this far out it's hardly reassuring. The fact that she *can't* beat the others (at least not easily), even CRUZ, is telling.> I get that. But she's polling even with Cruz, and he hasn't had 25 years of attacks against him. Most Americans even today aren't familiar with him, but that would change if he actually got the nomination. And the more people learn about him, the less they like him. Meanwhile, EVERYONE knows Clinton, and opinions on her are kind of "baked in" at this point. In other words, her negatives probably can't grow too much higher absent some major new revelations, whereas Cruz's can, because to millions of Americans they will BE new revelations. <The Republicans would be smart to blow up Trump, even with all the short-term blowback that's surely entail, but ONLY if they can convince him not to mount a 3rd party assault (and who can really guarantee that!?).> No one. The Republicans could still win this thing, but it's going to be hard. If Trump gets the nom, his negatives outstrip Clinton's, will probably grow even higher, and I think she beats him. There is some evidence that he's finally losing his luster even among Republicans in general, not just the "establishment." If Trump doesn't get the nom, after almost certainly going into Cleveland with the most delegates, that means he either does or doesn't run on a 3rd party. If he does, game over. Clinton wins easily. If he doesn't, it's possible those very committed Trump voters who Trump himself has told to loathe Cruz, stay home in November. Perhaps most of them do show up, hold their noses, and vote for Cruz, but if even a couple of million of them don't - game over. I don't think Trump has any particular loyalty to the party (or to anything except himself), and if he perceives them as treating him unfairly (which he certainly will if he doesn't get the nom), it's hard to see him endorsing the eventual nominee in any sort of convincing way, even if he doesn't run 3rd party. On the other hand, I think Sanders takes his potential defeat like an adult, recognizes what a disaster for the country a Trump OR Cruz presidency would be, and wholeheartedly endorses Clinton (as Clinton did for Obama after a primary season that was more acrimonious than this one, which people sometimes forget). So the Democrats will be more united than the Republicans; it's hard to see the Republicans being united after Cleveland, EVEN IF the major players try to pretend they're making nice... and that's a yuuuuge "even if."
Originally Posted By mawnck >>her negatives probably can't grow too much higher absent some major new revelations<< And there CAN'T POSSIBLY be anything like that, right? (/s) That's the trouble with the Clintons. The scandals just ... don't ... stop.
Originally Posted By Mr X Perception is reality, ECDC, and they HAVE been caught in some shady situations (sure, mostly Bill, but anyway). Most of the negatives, I think, come from her being unpleasant and shrill (see post #1 here, which you guys thought was cool but people not as warm on her in general surely would balk at), coupled with the constant drumbeat of accusations that she's a shady criminal. Not a good mix to hand to the fence-sitters, who've been known to vote for sillier reasons than that.
Originally Posted By RoadTrip ^^^ The very unfair result of Republicans having accused her of all kinds of crap over the past 20 years. None of it has been proven, but the Republicans have been very effective at building a false aura of scandal around her. Republicans may be stupid enough to buy into that, but I certainly hope Democrats aren't.
Originally Posted By Dabob2 "And there CAN'T POSSIBLY be anything like that, right? (/s)" Didn't say that. Of course there could be. That's why I mentioned it in the first place. But neither can we assume there will be anything of substance. And if there isn't, I think she beats trump easily and Cruz too, albeit closer. A lot can happen between now and November of course.
Originally Posted By Mr X ***None of it has been proven*** Bill *was* impeached. That's hard to bounce back from, perception-wise. And now there's this new thing with him in Massachusetts which I find extremely distasteful. And again, I know it's not HER in these cases, but it reflects badly off her, and the voting public isn't known for making such subtle distinctions.
Originally Posted By RoadTrip I've always said... if the most powerful man in the world can't get a blow-job in his office, what has this world come to?? Just kidding... more or less. ;-)
Originally Posted By ecdc >>Not a good mix to hand to the fence-sitters<< So let's hand them the self-proclaimed Socialist instead. They'll love that and I'm sure the GOP will go easy on him.
Originally Posted By Mr X ***So let's hand them the self-proclaimed Socialist instead. They'll love that and I'm sure the GOP will go easy on him.*** Normally I'd agree with you. But I really do wonder if their "OBAMA IS A SOCIALIST!" meme might have deafened folks to the term. Notice that already Trump is calling Sanders "our communist friend", but let's not forget the reason they switched from "commie!" to "socialist!" in the first place was because commie had lost it's bite over the years, mostly thanks to that OTHER over-the-top red scare the right wing overplayed way back when. I could be wrong though. We'll see (or rather, we won't, because only one of those scenarios will actually play out).
Originally Posted By Mr X I honestly don't think, though, that there's much merit to the notion that one of the two would hold up fine against right wing attacks, while the other is so much more vulnerable. I just don't see it. I think they're both easily attacked, and neither are particularly good at deflecting/mocking/refuting like Obama is. As insane as it may seem, I think one of those right wing clowns just might pull it off this year.
Originally Posted By mawnck >>None of it has been proven<< The fact that she was illegally running a personal email server is pretty much a slam-dunk at this point. At best, the pro-Hillary argument is "well that's not THAT bad". Moot point, though. She's got the nomination in the bag.
Originally Posted By Yookeroo "Republicans may be stupid enough to buy into that, but I certainly hope Democrats aren't." Some Bernie fans are. "The fact that she was illegally running a personal email server is pretty much a slam-dunk at this point." <a target="blank" rel="nofollow" href="http://www.npr.org/sections/itsallpolitics/2015/04/02/396823014/fact-check-hillary-clinton-those-emails-and-the-law">http://www.npr.org/sections/it...-the-law</a> And she was just doing what all her predecessors were doing.
Originally Posted By ecdc >>Has everybody else been unable to access these boards for about 3 days?<< Worked fine for me. I think Ted Cruz's aura in New York is so toxic it messes with everything (Boards were down for me for about a week, I think.)
