What does everyone think the odds are that Trump lasts a full 4 years? Obviously, we have the Russia stuff; if it turns out there's a smoking gun linking his campaign with Russian attempts to sway the election, that is potentially impeachable. He hasn't divested himself of nearly anything and still has financial interests all over the world. If he can be shown to be basing US policy on moves that would personally benefit himself or his family, that could be a problem. If he is shown to be accepting anything of value from foreign countries, that's blatantly unconstitutional (against the emoluments clause). Of course, what is an impeachable offense is basically what a majority of House members say it is. So even if there was a smoking gun, he'll only be impeached if a majority of House members want to go there. At present, I don't think they would. If Trump's popularity continues to tank, though, the Democrats could take back the House in 2018, even with gerrymandering being what it is, and with fewer Democrats typically turning out for midterms - they turned Bush's severe unpopularity into a huge win in 2006, and arguably they're more energized now. So if the Democrats take over in 2019, all of a sudden impeachment becomes much more plausible. But I think it's possible even before then if there's ENOUGH of a smoking gun, or enough smoking guns (plural). Nearly everyone in Congress looks out for #1 above all things. And if GOP Congressman X makes the calculation that supporting Trump is more detrimental to his re-election chances than opposing him, he'll stop supporting him. Right now the calculus is the other way, especially in deep-red districts, but that can change if the offenses are egregious enough and/or if Trump's behavior becomes more (obviously) unhinged and disconcerting. And at that point, some Congresscritters may decide they'd really prefer Pence anyway. What do you all think? How likely is Trump to last a full 4 years? I'd put it at less than 50/50. He may not even weather the Russia stuff if enough shoes drop, or if the FBI has the goods on him (Comey was awfully closed-mouth about the current investigation yesterday.) If he does weather Russia, the possibilities for conflicts of interest with his business ties are legion and something that no one's talking about now could erupt at any moment. There's also the possibility that if the heat gets too much, he'll resign before he can be impeached (especially if the Democrats take over), a la Nixon. He'd probably get Pence to agree to pardon him first, like Ford did (which Pence would probably jump at), and then claim for the rest of his life that he was hounded unfairly by liberal elites and fake news and never ever did anything even remotely wrong. And that he was the greatest President ever and would have been vindicated had he stayed on, but he just didn't feel like it.
I am putting all of my eggs in this particular basket just to save my sanity. I am pretty sure he will not last 4 years. But I think it is a tossup as to whether it will be impeachment, resigning or dropping dead of a massive coronary. Personally, I would like to see us get the Houses back but let him keep floundering and disassembling the Republican party. The very thought of a President Pence terrifies me as well as most of my friends and family.
If I thought he could flounder without doing major damage to the country I'd agree with that. But I'm not sure he can.
Yes, I agree. We are terrified when we think of him being faced with any real situation, foreign or domestic.
If not after the midterm elections, then the sooner the better. Robert Reich has been posting FB live videos almost nightly to answer people's questions and go over the latest from this so-called administration. Reich enumerated several reasons, including violation of the emoluments clause (which the Occupant is in violation of because he has not divested from his business interests and has been reported as encouraging foreign dignitaries to stay at his properties). At this point, even though Pence is as horribly regressive as the Occupant, he is a politician and they can be predictable.
I have no idea. I don't want to think he makes four years, but how won't he? I'm not sure his ego will allow him to resign. He may get bored of the whole thing, but maybe he'd rather just let Bannon/Miller run things and just sign things when he's supposed to and show up for the photo ops he wants. I don't think Congress is willing to go impeachment yet because they are so desperate to get Gorsuch on the court, revoke a bunch of protections and get the budget they want. In some quarters, I think this is all going "according to plan." They have sold their souls to the devil for a dollar. So that leaves waiting until the midterms, and I still don't think the electorate blames "their guy." Especially, in the not-purple areas. The "cost" of all of this is going to likely take awhile to show up. Markets won't crash overnight, not enough people who can't be categorized as some sort of "those people" won't start starving in the streets tomorrow. Even if they find some of this outrageous, their lives are still generally the same as they were So even though I strongly hope otherwise, I think he'll just be like one of those ineffective presidents in the pre-Civil War era that people don't remember. We limp along, becoming weaker and weaker, hoping that nothing too serious happens and wondering if anyone learned anything.
I'd kind of settle for that at this point, considering the alternative. I don't know if the AHCA (Obamacare replacement) will pass or not. (Maybe I should start a thread gauging people's take on THOSE odds). If it doesn't, then Trump and the GOP in general look weak in not being able to fulfill a strongly and repeatedly-offered promise. But the GOP may actually be in worse shape if it does pass. The CBO estimates 24 million people losing their insurance, and 14 million of them losing it by next year (i.e. election year). And as I've heard several people say lately, there are plenty of Trump-voting folks who didn't even realize that the Medicaid expansion that is now covering them IS Obamacare. But they're starting to figure it out (look at the town halls with people saying "Hey, you know, I voted for Trump, but...) and if it goes through, more of them will. As someone on the air put it: "People may not realize who gave them health care a few years back. But they're sure as hell going to know who took it away." Trump barely squeaked in as it was (taking FL, PA, MI, and WI by 1% or less). He cobbled together just enough people from a combo of true believers and half-hearted voters who didn't like Hillary or got conned into thinking Trump gave crap one about them, or just decided it was time for a Republican. The true believers may never desert him, reality be damned. But it may not take all that many of the latter group to turn against him to reach critical mass for the GOP House and Senate members making that cynical calculation "does it hurt or help ME to back him?" I still think it'll probably take a Democratic House to impeach. But it's not impossible that it wouldn't. Depends how much of a drag he becomes on the party - that may determine how quickly and how many Republicans start saying "Hey, I never liked him from the beginning!" If it gets too bad or Trump really goes off the rails, they may start hoping for a smoking gun.
This is from tonight's Resistance Report. At the 15 minute mark, he enumerates the areas of the Constitution the Occupant is in violation of.
I'm not sure what percentage I'd put it at. Certainly a lot less likely to last four years than previous presidents. But as you say, impeachment is a political act, not a legal one. Republicans have to believe it's in their best interest to do so, such as Trump being so unpopular they'll lose the House and Senate. In that case they may do it just to have Pence and perhaps stanch the wound.
Just not entirely true. Impeachment is both legal and political. The vote has to be founded on some unlawful action, some violation of a law other than an infraction and garner enough political support to move forward. If articles were drawn absent of law violation then the Supreme Court might step in to try and stop it due to Constitutional concerns.
Of course he will complete his term. By far the safest bet you can make. If you are expecting removal it won't happen. If you think assassination, then forget that too. The only realistic way he leaves before 4 years is if he drops from heart attack or stroke. But don't count on that one either because I'm sure a reputable doctor or two has already screened and tested him for signs associated with sudden dropping to the floor.
As for this idea Democrats taking over our House I think the nation has already learned that it spells disaster, especially when headed by an Obama. 19 trillion is a lot more debt than we can handle. Americans had enough of weak fiscal policy under Democrats. Debt slavery frightens.
Point of fact: deficits have gone down under the last several Democratic presidents, and skyrocketed under that last few Republicans. After Obama's first year, in which the stimulus was necessary to head off a second Great Depression (and this was NOT a gimme), the deficits declined every year. These aren't opinions. They are facts. Math. As Bill Clinton put it memorably at the 2012 Convention, "arithmetic." There's a real chance Democrats could take the House in 2018 if Trump remains as unpopular as he is now. And the House GOP isn't helping things lately either. The bill they put up to replace Obamacare fooled no one. It was nearly a direct swap: massive tax cuts for the 1%, paid for by kicking 24 million people off health insurance. Just 17% (17%!) of Americans favored it, which tells you even plenty of Republicans saw through it. And if those Republicans think Trump is a drag on their re-election efforts, they'll drop him fast. There's also talk today wondering whether Flynn, Manafort, or Stone will be the first to "flip," go to the FBI, and ask for a deal in exchange for spilling what they know. Stay tuned.
Arithmetic: US debt in 2008 10 trillion US debt in 2016 19 trillion What's with this smaller deficit stuff under Democratic leadership you are talking about?
Do you know how much health care 9 trillion can buy? That is so much coverage for all of us. What a waste.
You don't seem to understand the difference between the debt and the deficit. Or why the deficit was so prodigious in the early years of Obama after the mess left by Bush. When you've looked into that, you may be speaking from a place of greater credibility. P.S. - only one major political figure in recent years said, flat out, "deficits don't matter." You might want to look into who that was, too.
But you have not addressed the approx. 9 trillion increase in national debt in the last 8 years. I guess you just conveniently disregard that money we owe to other countries and entitled locals. As bad as the Bush people running up out national debt the Obama leaders were even worse. Deficits are connected to annual outlays and expenditues and collections. But this 19 trillion is unsustainable. No country had ever survived a debt this insurmoubtable
We can't even adequately service this outstanding loan debt let alone chip away at the principle 19+ trillion.
No, Obama was not worse than Bush. Bush handed Obama the worst economy since the Great Depression, which meant that revenues wouldn't be coming in, and outlays would have to go out just to stave off another Great Depression, which obviously would have been even worse. You also don't seem to realize when you say "No country had ever survived a debt this insurmountable" that our debt as a percentage of GDP is lower now than it was during WWII. Yes, we had to outlay big sums during WWII, for the obvious reasons, and we survived it. We had to do the same to stave off a 2nd Great Depression, and once that was averted, the deficit (though still too high) got lower every year. And I shouldn't need to point out that the only time we actually moved backwards on the national debt was during the Clinton years. And by the way, the largest outlays by far are the military and entitlements. Trump has promised to spend more on the military and to "not touch" entitlements. AND to slash taxes. So how exactly is that supposed to help the situation? The cuts he's proposed to discretionary spending are a relative drop in the bucket.
