Originally Posted By Spirit of 74 As I watch the chimp talk on TV and try to convince the great unwashed masses that the reason why we have a job problem is because there are too many teens entering the market and the reason gas is headed toward $8 a gallon is because that damn Congress won't let his oil cronies drill wherever they want etc ... I must say I'm just waiting for the floor to drop out on WDW and the theme park business as a whole. It's been very quiet at WDI for 8-9 months now in terms of future plans for the parks and I think it's quite simple: Disney isn't going to be going through on almost every plan you've heard ... all those grandiose plans for DCA? Don't count on it? New attractions in Florida? Doubt it. Expansion in HK? Well, that's not here, so that's still in play. The economists/marketing people who really run Disney may be stupid, but they're not idiots. They see the future when the airlines this week announced thousands of layoffs, when GM announced more factory closures, when even Ed McMahon is about to be foreclosed upon. They're telling Bob Iger what anyone here who isn't high or very wealthy already knows, that our economy is a complete and utter disaster (again, unless you're a corporation or very wealthy or just believe your preacher on Sunday when he tells you that the man upstairs sent George to lead and you gotta keep the faith even as you lose your health insurance or home)and that Disney vacations aren't going to be a priority when simple matters of survival are. Sorry to sound dire, but I'm awake and can see what's going on around me. And when I talk to people in Glendale and Burbank about future parks plans, I just get vagaries now ... as in 'well, we're working on (fill in the blank) but there's no timeline' ... that to me speaks volumes. I know a major announcement was supposed to be coming at DCA's MM opening and that it is no longer the case. Some folks will say 'oh, that's just because Disney doesn't have to tip its hand now that the SunCal housing deal is dead and buried.' Simply not the case. Disney doesn't want to commit to ANY major investment or reinvestment in its parks under the current climate. And it isn't the kind of thing we'll be out of tomorrow (unless you believe we won't have troops in Iraq in 20 years). So bookings are still solid, although watch the cancelations for late summer and beyond start to pick up speed. (oh, oil is up $10.47 as we speak ...) I'll just leave you with this, if it isn't DVC, don't expect construction anytime soon beyond what's been officially announced and begun! Now let's all put on some happy Disney music and pretend that our country isn't one massive disaster.
Originally Posted By SoThisIsLove But...it's a great, big beautiful tomorrow isn't it? I hope what you've said isn't going to really come true. While the USA is struggling, how about places where the currency vs the dollar is good? Will that bring enough economic activity to keep things shored up during the next little while? I'm not an insider or an economist, so please forgive in advance if my questions sound naive. They are. *feeling like curling up in the fetal position and listening to the happy Disney music*
Originally Posted By demderedoseguys Heard last night on the news that the airlines have cut flights to Orlando by 20%.
Originally Posted By Spirit of 74 <<I hope what you've said isn't going to really come true. While the USA is struggling, how about places where the currency vs the dollar is good? Will that bring enough economic activity to keep things shored up during the next little while?>> Oil is up 44% thus far in 2008. We just hit $139 a barrel. I'm trying very hard to not be political here because I am well aware that Disney fans tend to skiew to the right. But things are a disaster and they're only going to get worse. We're in for a long, hot summer. As to the strength of the dollar ... soon it will be worth whatever Cuban currency is worth. <<I'm not an insider or an economist, so please forgive in advance if my questions sound naive. They are.>> I'm not either. But I know the basics. And I see what is happening. I really hope all those folks wake up before the next election (not that anyone is going to be able to clean this mess up). <<*feeling like curling up in the fetal position and listening to the happy Disney music*>> So do I ... so do I. I'd get in my car and drive to WDW, but I really don't feel like spending over $100 on gas and tolls only to go pay for a WDW meal that has jumped 20-30% since a year ago. Maybe I'll just go down to my community pool and watch how my neighbors (who have very nice second homes here, but are mostly wealthy South Americans) are taking it all in stride! ;-)
Originally Posted By Spirit of 74 <<Heard last night on the news that the airlines have cut flights to Orlando by 20%.>> It's actually higher on some airlines -- AirTran, Continental and Delta. Orlando is almost exclusively a leisure market and that means the fares are much lower, plus you have many frequent fliers using miles to take the family on a vacation. So, even in the best of times, it's not a market the airlines roll in cash over ... Las Vegas is seeing similar sized cutbacks for the same reasons. But none of it bodes well for our economy or WDW. That's why I wouldn't be shocked to see the next DVC resort (not Contemporary) start construction soon. Disney is going to have to pull the profits from somewhere after all.
Originally Posted By davewasbaloo and don't count on the Europeans. times are tough here, and despite the dollar being worth very little, flights jumped up by 40% overnight, food is a lot more expensive. Heck, even parking at the train station went up 10% in the last 6 months. Now you are seeing why DLP really had problems in Frnace. The economy is still not as bad as it was in 1993. Sad times indeed.
Originally Posted By mousermerf The airline that handles 1/5 of all traffic to MCO is also the strongest domestic airline and has only marginally done anything to its flights to MCO, moreso changing the planes to a different departure point to fit need.
Originally Posted By Spirit of 74 <<and don't count on the Europeans. times are tough here, and despite the dollar being worth very little, flights jumped up by 40% overnight, food is a lot more expensive. Heck, even parking at the train station went up 10% in the last 6 months.>> Dave, I think that's what the beancounters are saying. They haven't been overly concerned with the direction of our economy over the past year to 18 months, even with the housing crisis. But I believe they're looking at Europe and starting to get very, very concerned. That's why they're so desperate to get as much DVC cash as quickly as possible. My gut tells me that the WDW parks are going to resemble ghosttowns by mid-August at this rate. I guess I'll know by the discounts. So far, they haven't been great (just got an email offer of $94 for a value, yeah, I'll rush to book that) ... but when those $49 rooms at the values return and $89 at the mods <<Now you are seeing why DLP really had problems in Frnace. The economy is still not as bad as it was in 1993. Sad times indeed.>> The problem is I don't think we've even hit the bottom ... and then the hole in the floor opens.
Originally Posted By Spirit of 74 <<The airline that handles 1/5 of all traffic to MCO is also the strongest domestic airline and has only marginally done anything to its flights to MCO, moreso changing the planes to a different departure point to fit need. >> Bottom line is Orlando is losing a tremendous amount of seats across the board. There's no spinning it as anything but bad for Disney, Universal, Busch and well Floridians!
Originally Posted By mousermerf When analysts where saying things were going to nosedive and be poor in the earlier quarters for this year, they were dead wrong. Disney is more resilient then you think. It's a luxury that people like a necessity.
Originally Posted By Spirit of 74 There's a beaking point for everyone and everything. I was at WDW in the late 70s ... and the early 90s and 2001-04 ... the outside world affects The World.
Originally Posted By Witches of Morva ORGOCH: Instead a worryin' 'bout makin' reservations fer Walt Dizzy Whirl, I think it's 'bout time we all started makin' reservations fer that great big Magic Kingdom in the sky. They calls it Heaven. This ol' Earth ain't gonna' be the same place fer much longer. More Earthquakes, tornados, cyclones, volcanos, crime 'n smut! It ain't lookin' good, ducklin's. Better git ready ta meet yer Maker 'cause He's a commin' back soon. When He does, DCA's just gonna be fergotten...
Originally Posted By dshyates I think everybody should spend their tax rebates on WDW and machines. So there will be jobs at the machine making places and WDW.
Originally Posted By socalkdg <<< gas is headed toward $8 a gallon is because that damn Congress won't let his oil cronies drill wherever they want etc ... >>> Carpool, ride a bike, take a bus, sell your SUV, become less dependent on oil. If you don't want to do that, and still don't want to rely on the middle east, then you need to use the land that we have such as Alaska. <<<They see the future when the airlines this week announced thousands of layoffs, when GM announced more factory closures, when even Ed McMahon is about to be foreclosed upon.>>> GM union workers were making on average over $30 per hour plus huge benefits in a World Economy that averages less than half that. Ed McMahon has made over $50 million in his life and somehow can't afford a $5 million house?
Originally Posted By Skellington88 is Star Tours 2 cancelled? or did that survive since work has already been put into it?
Originally Posted By Witches of Morva ORDDU: This morning Ed McMahon sort of admitted that he hadn't been spending his money as wisely as he should have. Bad financial choices can catch up with anyone--regardless of past riches.
Originally Posted By Spirit of 74 <<Carpool, ride a bike, take a bus, sell your SUV, become less dependent on oil.>> Fine. But doesn't the government have some responsibility for making that all easier. In Europe, you don't need a car. In 99% of the USA, mass transit is a joke. In Florida, it is. There's no mass transit option at all for me. <<If you don't want to do that, and still don't want to rely on the middle east, then you need to use the land that we have such as Alaska.>> You know, I promised Doobie, I'd keep this more on the economics/Disney angle than politics. But really this is a very tired argument. Goes something like this. We have enough oil for the whole country but those damn treehuggers won't let us drill (and anyone who thinks drilling in enviromentally sensitive lands isn't a disaster obviously slept through the Exxon Valdez). I just want to know if Alaskan oil is so important to us, how come we don't use it? How come much of it is exported to Japan and elsewhere? If it's so important to our energy equation why isn't 100% of it going to American consumers? <<<They see the future when the airlines this week announced thousands of layoffs, when GM announced more factory closures, when even Ed McMahon is about to be foreclosed upon.>>> <<GM union workers were making on average over $30 per hour plus huge benefits in a World Economy that averages less than half that.>> Yes. This argument is much like the 'if it's good enough for Six Flags' comment Pressler made many years ago about DCA. We're the United States of America. We're supposed to be better than that. What's next? Maybe we can pay people what those factories in China do? Experienced workers should make real livable salaries. GM doesn't want to pay people $30 an hour. It would much rather pay $10. <<Ed McMahon has made over $50 million in his life and somehow can't afford a $5 million house? >> i don't know his particulars. I just know the man is beloved and has done a lot of good work and given millions away to charities and helped make multiples of that for them. The fact he is also caught up in the mortgage crisis is sad. What's worse is the fact the government wants to protect all the companies behind it, while hanging the people who were hoodwinked into bad mortgages to begin with. I have never seen such a pro business administration in my life at a time when business in this country has never been as morally bankrupt (Enron, MCI, WalMart, Haliburton etc ...)
Originally Posted By Spirit of 74 <<is Star Tours 2 cancelled? or did that survive since work has already been put into it? >> No, it has not been cancelled.
Originally Posted By Spirit of 74 <<ORDDU: This morning Ed McMahon sort of admitted that he hadn't been spending his money as wisely as he should have. Bad financial choices can catch up with anyone--regardless of past riches.>> No. They only catch up to individuals. They don't catch up to corporations or the people that run them. That's why a company can steal its employees pensions and the government gives its blessing (anything to keep that company going) but if you default on $7,000 to Discover Card, it will haunt your grandchildren's grandchildren due to all the pro-business legislation that has been pushed through. Companies get all the breaks, while the little people simply get broken. It sucks and we're a better nation than that.
