Originally Posted By SuperDry "Tokyo region to face rolling blackouts through the summer" <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/asiapcf/03/31/japan.blackouts/index.html?hpt=T2" target="_blank">http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/...l?hpt=T2</a> To quote a Seinfeld episode: Seth: That's not going to be good for business. Jerry: That's not going to be good for anybody.
Originally Posted By SingleParkPassholder Just saw this as well. Of course, a CNN article isn't going to specifically address theme parks and their ability to re-open and stay open, but as Seinfeld said, hard to imagine this being good for the prospects. It's most definitely a region/country in massive flux right now.
Originally Posted By Mr X SD, I know you've mentioned the fact that there are a lot of things that can be done about this. And I heard a rumor from a friend last night that many entities with their own power sources (train companies, other corporations, etc...) have offered to sell their power to assist Tepco but Tepco refused. Any thoughts? And lmao on the Seinfeld reference. If this CAN be avoided, how long before other important corporations get fed up with this situation!?
Originally Posted By SuperDry Well, there's lots of things that can be done as far as power goes. You mentioned one possibility: companies with their own power generation capability "selling their power" to TEPCO. One way to do this would be in the literal sense, but this would require rewiring and some other changes. A more practical way would be for those entities that can run off-grid with their own power to do so over extended periods of time. Take for example a large data center. A single large data center might draw as much power as TDR does, and would have its own on-site diesel generating capacity so that it can run continuously during temporary blackouts. They typically would have 24-48 hours of diesel fuel on-site during normal times, and the way they would talk to their customers about their ability to operate without grid power is usually something like "indefinitely, assuming the ability to replenish supply of diesel fuel." With the road system and other infrastructure in Tokyo intact, this probably would not be an issue. An area the size of metro Tokyo probably has dozens such facilities. Then add in traditional telephone company facilities, which have the same capability, are more numerous, but might individually be smaller in terms of power consumption. Then you have the thousands of buildings that have their own generating capability to run elevators and other critical systems during an outage. If TEPCO were able to coordinate with all entities that can self-generate, I wonder how much it would be able to reduce the peak load. One problem is that it costs a lot more per KWH to produce your own electricity than it does to buy it from the grid. So, asking a particular self-generating entity to produce its own power for a prolonged period of time just out of the goodness of their heart might be unreasonable - why should only those entities that can self-generate have to pay way more for their power when everyone benefits from reducing blackouts? Perhaps a way around this is to subsidize the self-generators so that they are reimbursed for their extra cost and spread it among all the ratepayers.
Originally Posted By SuperDry Another thing that would be technically possible, but perhaps not permitted by regulation, would be for OLC to contract individually with some of these self-generating entities. Then, during periods when TDR is to be in the scheduled blackout rotation, OLC could pay self-generators that are not on the same blackout schedule to go off-grid anyway, reducing load an equivalent amount to allow TDR to remain "on." The net effect on the grid would be zero, and TDR would always have power. The cost would be whatever the differential in cost is between grid power and on-site diesel power at these other locations. Of course, I'm not an expert on the Tokyo power grid. I'm just speaking from a general knowledge on how these things work.
Originally Posted By Mr X As always, great info SD and thank you for your comment! I wonder how much of this is being discussed. I haven't heard much talk about this (or even that it's an option!). On the other hand, we can somewhat sympathize with the TEPCO people because they're pretty much destroyed from a business perspective. I wonder if nationalizing them might not put them out of their misery (and open up more options as well!)????
Originally Posted By DlandDug >>I wonder if nationalizing them...<< That would be so UNAmerican! Oh, never mind...
Originally Posted By SuperDry <<< On the other hand, we can somewhat sympathize with the TEPCO people because they're pretty much destroyed from a business perspective. >>> It happened to PG&E (one of the two largest power companies in California) that ended up in bankruptcy due to mismanagement of electricity market deregulation in California, yet the lights are still on. Despite the problems up north at Fukushima, I do have to say that I think that TEPCO has been managing the rolling blackouts quite well, given the circumstances. They have the schedules and zones all clearly described on their website in both English and Japanese, and all blackout periods are announced and well known far in advance. The only thing that is uncertain is when certain period become unnecessary so they end up leaving the power on, and that can't be known until right up to the deadline because of the unpredictability of weather and other factors that affect load. We had rolling blackouts here for one day a few weeks ago because of a temporary shortage, and there were no announcements or schedules - the lights just went off without notice several times during the day. It was very disruptive to everything.
Originally Posted By SuperDry <<< I wonder how much of this is being discussed. I haven't heard much talk about this (or even that it's an option!). >>> I would imagine that behind closed doors, everything I mentioned as well as many other options are being discussed. There are no doubt lots of people smarter about these things than me involved. There are all sorts of engineering, financial, public relations, and public policy factors that come into play.
Originally Posted By SuperDry Also, since the power shortage doesn't appear to be going away for at least a few months, I'm predicting a "long, hot summer" in Tokyo as one of the most obvious ways to reduce load in the summer months is to curtail the use of air conditioning.
