Originally Posted By velo Ha! Love your topic wording! If I were an Iowan, I'd be embarassed at the circus that is "the straw poll."
Originally Posted By ecdc In fairness to Iowa, this is the Republican straw poll. Somewhere in the state sane Democrats are embarrassed. Trust me, I know the feeling, Iowa moderates and liberals.
Originally Posted By Kar2oonMan I really hope Bachmann gets the GOP nomination. Talk about a house of cards.
Originally Posted By Dabob2 I don't see her having staying power. And I see Perry taking away any possible wins for her in evangelical southern states, because he's both evangelical AND southern. I think she could well win the Iowa caucuses. But for the last few GOP presidential cycles, what has happened is that by the time SC rolls around, it's all over but the shouting. Whoever won 2 of the first 3 (IA, NH, SC) would be the winner, and though of course they had to go the other states, the writing was very much on the wall. This time, I could see Bachmann taking IA, Romney taking NH, and Perry taking SC. Then what? Then they have to compete in states that haven't mattered in GOP primaries in a long time. And I don't see Bachmann beating Perry in any southern states. And no midwestern states with full primaries are as dominated by evangelicals as the IA caucuses are, so Romney probably wins there (especially if Bachmann and Perry split that vote). So if I was predicting today, I'd say it comes down to Romney and Perry. Can Perry attract establishment money away from Mitt? Can Perry play north of the Mason-Dixon line? If "yes" to both questions, Perry could take this thing. If not, I think we'll have the usual "primogeniture" thing for the GOP and Romney wins.
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Originally Posted By Kar2oonMan I think Romney is hobbled by his support of healthcare in MA. At this late date, he still hasn't come up with an answer on that to satisfy the wingnuts. It's been a constant refrain against him. I am certain that Bachmann will go all scorched earth in her attempt to get the nomination.
Originally Posted By Kar2oonMan >>what is the appeal to Bachmann?<< I have no idea at all. But for at least 5 years now, i haven't understood GOP politics. I think part of it is that when the left mocks someone in the GOP, they defensively rally around that person. It's almost like "You can't tell US who to support!" defiance. See also, cutting off one's nose to spite one's face.
Originally Posted By Dabob2 <I think Romney is hobbled by his support of healthcare in MA. At this late date, he still hasn't come up with an answer on that to satisfy the wingnuts.> Oh, I know. And to anyone even moderately moderate, Perry looks like "George W. Bush without the brains." (Seriously. It's sad, but true.) So I don't know which of those two is going to prevail in the end. But Perry also comes across as "Bachmann with a southern accent (and testosterone)" which usually plays well in the GOP primaries, so I think he'll outlast her. Just a hunch. Just a thought here: wither John Huntsman? Remember how the media said he'd be a "top tier" candidate if he'd just get in the race? Tons of buzz. But he's been a no-show on the buzz meter ever since he got in. Shades of Fred Thompson from last time. Same thing COULD happen to Perry, I suppose. But I think that swath of the GOP primary voters who are still just dandy with Bush will go gaga for him.
Originally Posted By fkurucz "And I see Perry taking away any possible wins for her in evangelical southern states, because he's both evangelical AND southern." Bachmann is a true believer and I suspect that Fundy voters know that. Perry doesn't go around telling people that he talks with God. The GOP has painted itself into a corner. Other than the richies, the Ayn Rand crowd (AKA the Tea Party), the gun nuts and the racists, the only other voting block they have are Protestant Fundies, to which they have to pander to get their votes. And now its no longer good enough to field candidates who pretend to care about abortion or gays. The Fundies are going to insist that one of their own be the candidate. This of course will scare moderates away. Some will stay home on election day and some might even vote for Obama as a lesser of two evils.
Originally Posted By fkurucz I do think that the GOP nominee will be either Bachmann or Perry. I don't think that either Mormon Romney or Hunstman stand a change with Protestant Fundy voters.
Originally Posted By RoadTrip The conservatives always claim that Obama is just an empty suit. Well, Perry is just an empty suit with good hair. As for Bachmann... NUTS. Who will ever forget her sucking face with Dubya? <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LfJepxPPBok" target="_blank">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...epxPPBok</a>
Originally Posted By fkurucz Bachmann appeals to the religious right more than any other candidate and she appeals to the Tea Party with her calls to dismantle welfare and to the Ayn Rand crowd with her calls to abolish minimum wage and other worker protections. She's an equal opportunity kook.
Originally Posted By Donny "The conservatives always claim that Obama is just an empty suit" Thats because he is,even MSNBC is starting to loose faith.
Originally Posted By Dabob2 <Bachmann is a true believer and I suspect that Fundy voters know that. Perry doesn't go around telling people that he talks with God.> Oh, but he does sometimes (albeit not as often as Bachmann) - look it up. And why do you think he held that prayer rally? If he's not as blatant about it (as often) as Bachmann, he knows all the codes, just like Bush did, and uses it often.
Originally Posted By Dabob2 Oh, and I also think Bachmann legitimately scares the moneyed interests of the GOP, with her talk about how we "should" default, and never underestimate the power of those interests to derail someone they're legitimately scared of.
