Originally Posted By RoadTrip Obama now has 9, soon to be 10 victories in a row. Is it time for Hillary to step aside and unify the party behind Obama? The guy has won it fair and square. Hillary started out the odds on favorite, but the more people see of him the less they like her. Or maybe it's the more they see her the less they like her. Either way, it is not her time. The day belongs to Obama.
Originally Posted By dshyates Stick a fork in her, she's done. She may get Texas, but I think Ohio will sway towards Obama.
Originally Posted By friendofdd She has been setting herself up for the presidency since Obama was a boy. I don't see her leaving unless he has a huge lead. Even then it will be hard to convince her to withdraw. Bill probably has strategies that will leave us breathless as the Clinton team uses all their many skills to try to bring down the opponent.
Originally Posted By Mr X I agree with DD...I don't think she's going anywhere and I believe we'll see some more strategies for bringing Obama down... Is there a more powerful political family in that party than the Clintons? If so, I've not seen em (well, maybe the Kennedys?). As such, I think the superdelegates will probably do as they're told. Noticed how worried Obama is about that? There's good reason.
Originally Posted By ecdc >>Stick a fork in her, she's done. She may get Texas, but I think Ohio will sway towards Obama.<< I actually think it might be the other way around. After Super Tuesday, Obama was trailing by big double-digits in Texas, easy. Now, he's closed the gap to anywhere from 2 to 5 points, depending on the poll. Ohio, most commentators agree, is about as Hillary-friendly as a state gets. It's largely blue collar and the demographics are definitely for her. The problem she faces is that Obama continues to out-perform most projections. Right up until the polls closed today in Wisconsin, all we heard was how close they were. Obama ended up winning it pretty handily. If he wins Texas, it's over; sure, he might only win by a couple of points, so the delegate split is almost even. But Hillary's momentum is gone at that point. The big problem is, I don't see her stepping down. When the Clintons are at their best, we've got some great leaders on our hands. But more and more this election is showcasing that when they're at their worst, they're just nasty people. It might have to take Howard Dean and other Democratic party leaders meeting with the superdelegates to convince them to go public with support for Obama. Even Chuck Schumer, a big Hillary supporter from New York, said on Meet the Press that there's no way the party can tolerate this thing dragging out 'til the convention.
Originally Posted By Mr X Having said that though, I think she SHOULD...Obama obviously has the momentum on his side and if she were to win in a brokered convention I think it would harm the party immeasurably come November.
Originally Posted By ecdc >>As such, I think the superdelegates will probably do as they're told. Noticed how worried Obama is about that? There's good reason.<< I actually disagree. Some superdelegates, sure. But others have already recognized the political suicide in supporting Hillary when their constituents went for Obama. Can you just see that political ad when someone's up for re-election? [Cue ominous music] "The people in district 12 wanted Barack Obama to be the next President of the United States. John Lewis wanted Hillary Clinton. Who did we all get? John McCain. John Lewis thinks his political favors are more important than the will of the voters." I think the superdelegates, by and large, will go with Obama if his streak continues. If Hillary does better than expected on March 4th, it'll be even tougher.
Originally Posted By RoadTrip I've been a huge Clinton supporter in the past, but this primary season has been very enlightening. As ECDC mentioned we have seen Clintons at their worst, and at their worst they aren't very darned attractive.
Originally Posted By Sport Goofy Hillary Clinton needs to stick it out to the end. The longer this primary goes on, the more it delays the onslaught of Republican campaigning against Obama. That is a good thing for Obama. Once Obama becomes the clear victor, he becomes the sole target of the Republican attack machine. He's generating a lot of positive press ever time he wins one of these primaries. If Clinton bows out, the press shifts gears from covering primary victories to speculation about the general election. I don't think a long run up to the general election works in Obama's favor. One thing that most people haven't considered is that Clinton's campaigning has been restricted from a lot of negative attacks largely because of gender. A woman can't really go on the attack, lest she get labeled as a b**** that upsets the male voting population. A male Republican candidate can be far nastier without any of the negative consequences. I've already seen GWB issue a couple of one-liner attacks against Obama -- things that Hillary could probably say if she was a man, but can't due to gender politics. Keeping the primary going for a few more months delays the start of the negative campaign against Obama. I think the Obama wave is reasonably strong enough to withstand a lot of scrutiny, but time is probably not on his side in a lengthy general election battle.
Originally Posted By Kar2oonMan Also, i saw one of the commentators last night, maybe pat Buchannan? who was actually talking about McCain & Huckabee when he suggested it was good for Huckabee to stay in it for McCain, because when it's a one person race, you don't get to make a victory speech. Every time he trounces Huckabee, he gets more air time to make a victory speech. I think even if the gap widens on th Democrat side, there's something to be said for keeping it going for that same reason.
Originally Posted By Kar2oonMan >>Once Obama becomes the clear victor, he becomes the sole target of the Republican attack machine.<< Yes, there was some of this last night. McCain fired off a few very thinly veiled references to Obama's message of hope & change.
Originally Posted By DAR Yeah I think it's time for her to step aside, but she won't. She has this idea in her head that it's her time to be President and she's not going to give that up. Here's another thing what if she carries this thing to the convention? Couldn't that split the Democratic party and it might take years for them to recover? I've been hearing that's a real possibility.
Originally Posted By Kar2oonMan I honestly believe that this country is tired of the same folks running the show all these years. If Hillary would have gotten the nomination, nothing, and I mean NOthing, would have galvanized the GOP faster. The absolute hatred of the Clintons by much of the right really cannot be overstated.
Originally Posted By DAR <<Yes, there was some of this last night. McCain fired off a few very thinly veiled references to Obama's message of hope & change.>> The statement about eloquent but empty promises? That's pretty tame if you look at the overall culture of politics these days.
Originally Posted By ecdc The New York Times had an article today talking about how Obama made some serious inroads with Hillary's key demographics in Wisconsin. Roughly 1/3 of Democratic voters identified themselves as union households and the vote was evenly split between Obama and Clinton. She's in trouble. I think Sport Goofy makes an interesting (and good) point about keeping it focused on the primaries being good for Barack. But I'm not convinced the good of that really does outweigh the bad of a deeply divided party and a brokered convention.
Originally Posted By ecdc I'll add, I think at this point if Hillary manages to score the nomination, the comparisons I've heard in some quarters to 1968 is right: Democrats wanted to vote for Bobby Kennedy or Eugene McCarthy and got Hubert Humphrey. It's like telling your kids you're going to Disneyland and then taking them to the dentist's office.
Originally Posted By Dabob2 <The absolute hatred of the Clintons by much of the right really cannot be overstated.> So true. And sure, the attach machine will go after Obama if/when he's the nominee, but I don't think it will resonate the same way as it would against Clinton. Hillary (and Bill) just makes a lot of right-wingers vibrate. One of the pundits last night pointed out that if Obama had lost 10 contests in a row, it really would be over. Hillary gets more chances to make a comeback than you can count. And yes, I think she really thought this was her year, and she'll stay in to the end, unless maybe if she loses both Ohio and Texas. It's probably not a bad thing for Obama, assuming he wins overall, because it allows him to keep winning his share (or more) of the contests. But if Hillary decides to take it to the convention, it could be a disaster. I think if Obama wins either Texas or Ohio, and has a decent lead in pledged delegates, there will be a). pressure from Dean and other party elders to get superdelegates to come out vocally for Obama, and b). pressure on Hillary to think of her alternative future in the senate, and not become persona non grata in the party. As another of the pundits said last night (I was nodding in and out, so I can't remember who said what), if she goes out gracefully, she can only gain stature in the senate, and if either Obama or McCain stumbles as president, who's the first person the news organizations will ask for comments from?
Originally Posted By DAR There's hatred of the Clintons on the right but could you imagine if Jeb Bush ever threw his hat into the ring?? Now there would be some hatred.
Originally Posted By Dabob2 Actually, the conventional wisdom on Jeb (and this includes people on the left) is that he was the "smart one" that should have run for president if anyone, but that GWB decided he would instead, and that ruined it for Jeb. I don't think, given what a disaster GWB has been, that Jeb will be running any time soon, but there doesn't seem to be any hatred for him. (I know left-leaning people in Fla., and they certainly don't hate him. They thought he was an okay governor.)
