Originally Posted By Mr X Not lookin too good right now. Asia crashed noticably on the heels of Fridays 400 point DOW reversal, Europe seems to be following suit, and the futures markets are pointing to a sharp drop. That coupled with the fact that a LOT of people this week are going to sit up and take notice re 3q 401k's...that whole "perfect storm" potential makes me shiver. On the other hand, as some have said the markets are horribly oversold and WANT to go up again (this is chartist territory, I don't claim to know much about it), but I think it would take a catalyst and I wonder if there are any more rabbits left in the hat at this point. A big rate cut? How much more can they really do, sitting here at 2% as we speak. Something else entirely? Thoughts?
Originally Posted By SuperDry <<< That coupled with the fact that a LOT of people this week are going to sit up and take notice re 3q 401 >>> A friend of a friend is a private fund manager, and has voiced exactly the above warning. <<< A big rate cut? How much more can they really do, sitting here at 2% as we speak. >>> Well, based on the track record of the central bank of Japan, I'd say about 1.99%!
Originally Posted By Mr X Futures markets continue sliding, DOW is now set to open at -225. And Russia crashed (again). This is just getting scary, honestly. I'm no magician and I have no idea what will happen..for all I know today will be a big turnaround....the overall vibe though, is pretty nervewracking since you'd think they would get SOME sort of bounce from that 700 billion!
Originally Posted By mawnck I think it's starting to hit a few people that it's going to take the guv'mint a while to get going on this bailout. Merry Christmas.
Originally Posted By RoadTrip What goes up must go down. And vice-versa. The market will continue to be a roller-coaster ride while the credit thing works itself out. For some positives... the dollar is up and the price of oil is way down. Gas at my local station was $3.17 when I drove by this morning. Some of the LP prognosticators were predicting $5+ gas just a few months ago. I'm not scared. Sure, as I've mentioned I sold a chunk of my mutuals over the summer to buy the condo and moved another chunk into ING savings. But I'm still continuing my planned monthly investment in each of my mutuals that I've had for the past five years. I figure I'm picking it up at fire sale prices and that it WILL go up again.
Originally Posted By vbdad55 when the retailers forecasts for the holidays comes in,and they order far less stock than ever before stand clear. Hell stores already discounting Halloween stuff asmuch as 50% - 60%. Nothing is selling...no one has any disposable cash
Originally Posted By vbdad55 <For some positives... the dollar is up and the price of oil is way down. Gas at my local station was $3.17 when I drove by this morning. Some of the LP prognosticators were predicting $5+ gas just a few months ago. > Ipaid $4.29 this AM - so thank your lucky stars you are where you are --not everyone has seen that drop orice hereis closer to that $5 range than your $3.17
Originally Posted By fkurucz We are seeing prices in the 3.40's. <Hell stores already discounting Halloween stuff asmuch as 50% - 60%. Nothing is selling...no one has any disposable cash>> Seeing similar situation here. Lots of sales and lots of empty stores.
Originally Posted By vbdad55 empty restaurants - most have cut hours around me. Now remember, I live in what is supposed to be some kind of haven.( not sure why they let me in) ...you know -- top 5 best places to live last 5-6 years, median income 3-4 times the national average etc etc... and stores are closing, construction has virtually stopped
Originally Posted By fkurucz As of about 10:40 AM ET the Dow is down about 5% and the Nasdaq and SP500 are down about 6%, The confidence is gone.
Originally Posted By RoadTrip vbdad, Chicago is certainly higher than the Twin Cities. $4.29 is high though even for the Chicago suburbs. You might want to look at this site. I couldn't find a listing for the suburb you live in, but found prices for Lisle which is right next door. <a href="http://www.chicagogasprices.com/Lisle/index.aspx" target="_blank">http://www.chicagogasprices.co...dex.aspx</a>
Originally Posted By fkurucz <Now remember, I live in what is supposed to be some kind of haven.( not sure why they let me in) ...you know -- top 5 best places to live last 5-6 years, median income 3-4 times the national average etc etc... and stores are closing, construction has virtually stopped>> Sounds like over here, except for the income multiplier (were are only about 2-3x). The car dealerships are ghost towns. The only place that seems busy at all are the WalMarts. <empty restaurants - most have cut hours around me.>> Ditto. There is almost never a wait to get in anywhere.
Originally Posted By RoadTrip Want to guess end of the day DJIA and see who comes closest? I predict -142.
Originally Posted By vbdad55 <vbdad, Chicago is certainly higher than the Twin Cities. $4.29 is high though even for the Chicago suburbs. You might want to look at this site. I couldn't find a listing for the suburb you live in, but found prices for Lisle which is right next door. <a href="http://www.chicagogasprices.co...dex.aspx" target="_blank">http://www.chicagogasprices.co...dex.aspx</a> < was out this AM- stations around me are $4.04 - $4.09
Originally Posted By fkurucz <Want to guess end of the day DJIA and see who comes closest? I predict -142.>> I think that the Plunge Protection Team is out of ammo. I also think that we might see a last minute emergency Economic Stimulus Checks #2 before Christmas. It won't help, but at this point what have the gov't got to to lose?
Originally Posted By Sport Goofy << For some positives... the dollar is up and the price of oil is way down. >> Where is the dollar compared to where is was 2 years ago? Where is oil compared to where it was 2 years ago? Daily fluctuations in prices, stock market included, are not very representative of the overall health of the economy. Where was the DJIA 10 years ago? Where was the S&P 500 10 years ago? Look at these long term trends and tell me that you have any good news.
Originally Posted By vbdad55 <I also think that we might see a last minute emergency Economic Stimulus Checks #2 before Christmas. It won't help, but at this point what have the gov't got to to lose?< I am not sure anyone will use those checks for Christmas ( likely just buy food and pay bills) - but they will need to do something or suffer the worst holiday shopping period in quite a while. The kids in my house have already been told- pick 1 nice thing out - the party is over
Originally Posted By RoadTrip Where was the DJIA ten years ago? Thanks for asking! On October 16, 2008 the DJIA closed at 8,416.76, AFTER the largest weekly gain in history.
