Originally Posted By Mr X <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2007/WORLD/meast/03/27/us.gulf.ap/index.html" target="_blank">http://edition.cnn.com/2007/WO RLD/meast/03/27/us.gulf.ap/index.html</a> Yikes! Guess all that doom and gloom talk wasn't entirely hyperbole after all! I honestly hope it gets worked out in a positive way, and QUICK, but I'm afraid this might be just the excuse America has been looking for...
Originally Posted By jonvn Iran is simply provoking a war they feel they can win and humiliate the USA with. They're probably right.
Originally Posted By DlandDug Not wanting to rattle any sabres, but in any conventional war, the US should win handily. That's the problem with what is happening in Iraq. There is nothing conventional about it.
Originally Posted By jonvn What makes you think it would be any different in Iran than it is in Iraq? Do you think the Persians are stupid? I can guarantee you they are not.
Originally Posted By DlandDug >>What makes you think it would be any different in Iran than it is in Iraq?<< In Iran, there is a recognized government that is provoking tensions. In Iraq there is no recognized government that is opposing our troops. At this point we are trying to hold up a fragile created government while there is a civil war going on.
Originally Posted By mrichmondj << Not wanting to rattle any sabres, but in any conventional war, the US should win handily. That's the problem with what is happening in Iraq. There is nothing conventional about it. >> You obviously have no clue about Iran's war plans or strategy in the event of conflict with the U.S. The strategy is very non-conventional and would wreak havoc throughout the region. If you think gas is expensive now, just imagine the aftermath of having the Strait of Hormuz mined and no merchant shipping successfully navigating that crucial chokepoint. That's just one of the non-conventional strategies that the Iranians train to execute -- but nowhere near the most detrimental.
Originally Posted By DlandDug >>You obviously have no clue about Iran's war plans or strategy in the event of conflict with the U.S. The strategy is very non-conventional...<< Which is why I stated that, "in any CONVENTIONAL war, the US should win handily." Mining the Strait of Hormuz to restrict merchant shipping would, indeed, wreak havoc with world oil supplies. This would be expected, however, and hardly constitutes unconventional tactics. It also begs the question of how Iran would be able to ship the oil on which its own economy is so dependent. Again, I have no desire to see the US at war anywhere. But in the event of a conventional conflict, with a specific enemy, we are still well equipped to prevail.
Originally Posted By mrichmondj << It also begs the question of how Iran would be able to ship the oil on which its own economy is so dependent. >> I suggest you look at an atlas. Iran extends beyond the boundaries of the Arabian Gulf and could feasibly ship oil from a number of ports in the North Arabian Sea, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. << Mining the Strait of Hormuz to restrict merchant shipping would, indeed, wreak havoc with world oil supplies. This would be expected, however, and hardly constitutes unconventional tactics. >> When mines are deployed from vessels and aircraft that are in no way distinguishable from the 1000s of dhows, fast smuggler boats, and merchant ships that operate in the Gulf everyday, it becomes a very non-conventional conflict.
Originally Posted By tiggertoo <<I suggest you look at an atlas. Iran extends beyond the boundaries of the Arabian Gulf and could feasibly ship oil from a number of ports in the North Arabian Sea, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.>> But the U.S. Navy is more than capable of blockading or preventing shipping out of every major Iranian port. The wild card would be how China would react to a disruption in their oil supply.
Originally Posted By mrichmondj ^^ I hope you are right about the blockade prospects. I'd count the number of ships left in our Navy vs. what is required to do that mission before you jump to conclusions, though. This isn't the 1980s and the 400 ship Navy anymore.
Originally Posted By tiggertoo Besides that, I doubt Iranian ports would last one week following declared war with the West. All major ports would be bombed and/or likely occupied as strategic targets and probably end up being used American/British operations bases. Iran’s only hope for economic vitality would be northbound pipelines and pressure from Russia and the PRC.
Originally Posted By tiggertoo mrichmondj, Does the U.S. still maintain a strategic naval reserve in mothball? I know many have been sold for scrap. But also, the threat of air attacks from local carriers against strategic commerce like oil exports would mean that the Navy would not need to have a large contingent of ships to maintain an effective blockade.
Originally Posted By mrichmondj << Does the U.S. still maintain a strategic naval reserve in mothball? >> Sure there's a mothball fleet. It would take billions of dollars to activate, not to mention that there are no Sailors to man those ships, but it does exist. You can usually see it by air when you fly into Philly. The mothball fleet is really of no use to us, and not much of a practical solution. The U.S. has military capability well beyond that of Iran. No doubt about it. However, I think folks are kidding themselves if they believe that this will be the equivalent of defeating Iraq's conventional army. Iran has a lot of well thought out plans for warfare with the west. We don't have the specific weapons to defeat some of their more unconventional assets. They ultimately can't win that fight, but there could be casualties to U.S. forces well in excess of anything we've seen in Iraq if Iran executes their full wartime strategy. It won't be an easy thing to observe for most folks watching from the U.S.
Originally Posted By Mr X >>>Reading the topic title I keep hearing the Superfriends announcer.<<< Yup, that's what I was going for.
Originally Posted By Mr X In other developments, Stock futures crashed, gold prices firmed up, and oil briefly spiked up FIVE dollars a barrel...on rumors that Iran fired on a U.S. ship. Oil settled down, but the stock futures are still way low. Lotsa tension going on here!
Originally Posted By DlandDug Regardless of our abilities, I would not want to see us going into war with Iran. If there are reasoning, intelligent people there, they should know not to provoke the current administration. Unless, for some insane reason, they want a war with the West.
Originally Posted By friendofdd I thought I might hear more about this on the news, but they were busy telling me what dancers got dumped.
