Moody's Economist; Tax Cuts = ineffective stimulus

Discussion in 'World Events' started by See Post, Feb 8, 2009.

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  1. See Post

    See Post New Member

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    Originally Posted By Mr X

    <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE4BA6PC20081211?sp=true" target="_blank">http://www.reuters.com/article...?sp=true</a>

    ***In congressional testimony in July, Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Economy.com, laid out the multipliers that he estimated applied to range of measures from tax cuts to government spending.

    Zandi found that tax cuts delivered the least bang for the buck, with a dollar's worth of a temporary nonrefundable tax rebate worth $1.02 with a one-year lag. Permanent tax cuts yielded less than 50 cents of additional spending.

    In contrast, actual spending increases were worth $1.36 if they were disbursed as aid to state governments; $1.59 if the money went on infrastructure; $1.64 for extended unemployment benefits and as much as $1.73 from an increase in food stamps.

    "The money goes to people who have already suffered a decline in their standards of living and pretty much all of it gets spent," said Chad Stone, chief economist at the Center on Budget and Policy Priroties, a liberal Washington-based think tank.***

    I don't have much to add, except to say that it makes sense to me.

    And I really can't understand what the Right Wing counter-argument can be in the face of data such as this.
     
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    Originally Posted By dshyates

    I think they believe that if you give big corporatios tax breaks they will hire folks to sit in the lounge since they all have huge surplus inventories right now.
    And you know that they HATE giving poor people ANYTHING. They tried to get the food stamp increase cut out because its socialism. Ignoring that it is the most bang for the buck in stimulus terms. Just the word food stamps causes their blood to boil. They don't understand why the welfare losers don't get a job. Nevermind that most people on food stamps ARE fully employed (at $6.55/hr.). Usually 2-$6.55/hr jobs.
     
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    Originally Posted By planodisney

    Yah, us Republicans hate giving poor people anything.

    That's why my wife and I support at least 2 families every christmas.

    We support a family with money every month in her home country of Brazil and we support a missionary family in a southern Brazilian Indian tribe to teach them to read and write and have healthcare.

    WE do it ourselves and don't depend on governments to do the good work we are on earth to do.

    Democrats are great at aspousing empathy for the poor and needy, but Republicans pull much more of the weight.

    Of course their are exceptions and I know many liberals who bust their butts to help those in need.

    But I am sick of people like you questioning my, and other conservatives hearts.

    You are so concerned about those in need, so I would love to here what you personally do for the betterment of society and couldn't give a crap who you vote for.
     
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    Originally Posted By dshyates

    Well, I volenteer at the Salvation Army helping distribute food to needy families. And I also have been driving for the senior center taking folks to their doctors apps and such.
    I work disaster relief for the Red Cross when I can.
    Being unemployed I don't really give much money so time is all I have to give. I also take my 2 daughters with me when I have them to show them that volenteering is NORMAL. Plus the older folks just love kids.
    If I had money I could just write a check and feel good about myself.
     
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    Originally Posted By dshyates

    I got involved with the red cross after a local gas station blew up and my brother and I ended up in the middle of a flaming inferno carring 4 busted up burnt folks out. 4 other didn't make it out, but after that I got to know the Red Cross folks pretty well, and have been to New Orleans (Katrina) where I drove donated stuff down, So. Cal. (wildfires) where I did nothing, and Ohio and Northern WV (ice storm) delivering generators, blankets, kerosene and such.
     
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    Originally Posted By planodisney

    dshyates, that is AWESOME with a capitol
    A. Actually giving of your time and energy is more important than just giving money.

    If more people had your heart, society would be alot better off.

    Believe me, I don't just help with my check book, and I don't make enough money that every time I write a check or give cash to someone in need or a worthy cause, it doesn't hurt. It does and has left me short a few times.

    I just hate the old standby arguement that republicans don't care about the needy.

    It just isn't true.
     
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    Originally Posted By Dabob2

    <You are so concerned about those in need, so I would love to here what you personally do for the betterment of society and couldn't give a crap who you vote for.>

    I actually just got home from playing a fund raiser (as a musician) through a church of one of the other bandmates. We raised a pretty nice sum of money (only in the thousands, but still), half going to local food pantries, and half going to a middle east peace initiative that does things like get Israeli kids and Palestinian kids together in soccer camp.

    The woman from the food pantry said that recently "business" was up about 30%, and the increase was largely families with small kids and the elderly.

    Everyone in the band donated their time. We all voted for Obama, by the way.

    Individual charity work and the most effective forms of stimulus (and food stamps ARE effective stimulus) are two entirely different subjects.

    I alluded to this study in another thread, X. Zandi, BTW, was an economic adviser to McCain in 2008, so this is not some liberal spin. This is just plain facts.
     
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    Originally Posted By dshyates

    You know, I was at a party of College Republicans where we were celebrating beatig the whinning liberals because they wanted to stop the local refinery from polluting the area. See the area around Ashland Oil has a 60% higher cancer rate than 35 miles away in any direction. 1/3 of the refineries employees have Leukemia. Well we worked with Ronald Reagan to gut the EPA regs so that is was FAR cheaper to pay the fine than fix the problem. We had a big ol celebratory party that we, the College Repubs, beat the libs. No one seemed to care that it allowed Ashland Oil to continue lkilling people. I left the Republican Party the next day.
    I am pretty sure that if they don't care if they kill you, then helping feed you is probally really out of the question.
    And I can't tell you the number of conversations I have had regarding food stamps and the welfare state.
    Sorry Plano, but I don't get the warm and fuzzy vibe from the Republicans. Particularly after the recent war we started for the profit of private corps.
     
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    Originally Posted By Mr X

    ***I alluded to this study in another thread, X. Zandi, BTW, was an economic adviser to McCain in 2008, so this is not some liberal spin. This is just plain facts.***

    That's interesting.

    I wonder what the Right Wing response to this is. That Zandi is just wrong? That it's not true?

    What's the deal with food stamps anyway? If it's true that food stamps actually ramp up the economy in a big way, why not just divide up $900 billion in food stamps for all and be done with it.

    Crisis solved.

    (I sure as heck would be more willing to spend on other stuff if the food bill were significantly reduced! Wouldn't anyone?)
     
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    Originally Posted By vbdad55

    common sense tells me if the cost of 'staples' goes down a person has more disposable income. Now that amount may still be very small - but my guess is most people are NOT making it check to check these days - hence the huge CC debt - HEL's etc..

    reduce : heat / electricity/ phone / food / gasoline and more money will be left after payday
     
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    Originally Posted By planodisney

    dshyates, many of us are against the wellfare state, not because we don't have a heart, but because we believe, with all our heart, that the wellfare state has utterly destroyed the human spirit and the will to achieve.

    I absolutely believe in a safety net, and in programs to help those who can't help themselves.

    Many of us just happen to believe that the liberal philosophy on such matters simply feeds system that keeps the poor, poor.

    I can assure you that having a D or an R by your name has nothing to do with the size of your heart.

    The amount of help my church, which is probably 95% conservative, gives to the less fortunate and those in serious need is astounding.

    I honestly don't mean for this to be rude, but if you don't believe conservative people have a heart for those in need, then you are living in ignorance and have never been to the south and seen the way communities and families pull together to help those in need.

    I see it everyday and it makes me proud.

    Now, concerning your oil refinery in Ashland, all I can say is that I believe that both sides get carried away with their core beliefs at times.

    I believe that the Democratic party supports infanticide in the name of one of their core values, meanwhile not realy contemplating the ULTIMATE result.

    I certainly don't believe that is any less cruel than your example.
     
  12. See Post

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    Originally Posted By Mr X

    Well, the price of gasoline has already been significantly reduced. So that's a start.

    I agree with you about staples. And it's a mindset thing too, I think. People can live with the idea of putting off bills to a point (until the thread of a shutoff becomes real), but you can't put off buying weekly groceries.

    My guess is that is why food stamps are such an effective stimulus.
     
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    Originally Posted By dshyates

    "many of us are against the wellfare state, not because we don't have a heart, but because we believe, with all our heart, that the wellfare state has utterly destroyed the human spirit "

    better to have a broken spirit than starve to death.


    " but if you don't believe conservative people have a heart for those in need, then you are living in ignorance and have never been to the south and seen the way communities and families pull together to help those in need."

    Now this really cracks me up. Never been to the south. lol. I grew up in WV, I am a direct descendant of Davey Crockett and Jefferson Davis. I have lived in Richmond, Orlando, and San Antonio. But let me show you 3 real quick pics.

    Me:

    <a href="http://img84.imageshack.us/my.php?image=ranchhandbwqm6.jpg" target="_blank">http://img84.imageshack.us/my....wqm6.jpg</a>

    My kids coal dust covered Elementary School:

    <a href="http://www.appvoices.org/images/MarshForkSchool_full.jpg" target="_blank">http://www.appvoices.org/image...full.jpg</a>

    And the GIANT TOXIC coal Sludge Pond with a leaky earthen dam RIGHT ABOVE my kids school:

    <a href="http://www.ohvec.org/action_alerts/2006/images/marsh_fork_elem.jpg" target="_blank">http://www.ohvec.org/action_al...elem.jpg</a>
     
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    Originally Posted By dshyates

    And this is OUR state sport;

    <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oJ6b3IwMS6s&feature=related" target="_blank">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...=related</a>
     
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    Originally Posted By dshyates

    We have 2 restaurants One fancy (table service):

    <a href="http://img134.imageshack.us/img134/8858/dsc0041an9.jpg" target="_blank">http://img134.imageshack.us/im...1an9.jpg</a>

    And one fast food:

    <a href="http://img134.imageshack.us/img134/1416/dsc0045ux5.jpg" target="_blank">http://img134.imageshack.us/im...5ux5.jpg</a>
     
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    Originally Posted By DouglasDubh

    <I wonder what the Right Wing response to this is. That Zandi is just wrong?>

    Pretty much, yeah. His numbers fly in the face of what the CBO has said, as well as many other economists. In the 90's, Japan ramped up infrastructure spending to stimulate their economy - now they have a huge debt and their economy is still weak.
     
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    Originally Posted By Mr X

    ***His numbers fly in the face of what the CBO has said, as well as many other economists.***

    I'd like to see that info.

    Where can I find it?
     
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    Originally Posted By DouglasDubh

    <Zandi, BTW, was an economic adviser to McCain in 2008, so this is not some liberal spin.>

    Mr Zandi is a registered Democrat.
     
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    Originally Posted By DouglasDubh

    <Where can I find it?>

    There's this wonderful thing on the internets called "google". You could try that.

    Or you could start here - <a href="http://www.cato.org/fiscalreality" target="_blank">http://www.cato.org/fiscalreality</a>

    More about Japan's stimulus - <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/06/world/asia/06japan.html?_r=2&ref=todayspaper&pagewanted=all" target="_blank">http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02...nted=all</a>
     
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    Originally Posted By Mr X

    ***There's this wonderful thing on the internets called "google". You could try that.***

    I'll leave that to DarkBeer.

    What I was asking for, of course, were sources that you personally endorse..considering you claim that Congress and many other economists completely disagree.

    No need to bother with the Japan situation, it's apples and oranges as far as I'm concerned. You could point to any number of situations or nations who tried this and that, but the simple fact of the matter is that if countermeasures worked the same way every time, we wouldn't have crashes and crises like we do from time to time. Right?

    Yeah, I knew you'd agree.
     

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