Originally Posted By TDLFAN This news item appeared on Joe's Tokyo Disney Resort site today. Go here to read: <a href="http://www.jtcent.com/extras/news/news_060403.html" target="_blank">http://www.jtcent.com/extras/n ews/news_060403.html</a> Many thanks to www.jtcent.com (the very best TDR english language fan site ever) for allowing me to bring this link to you.
Originally Posted By SuperDry That's interesting. For the record, I was doin' my part last fiscal year, contributing 11 turnstile clicks to the total.
Originally Posted By TDLFAN Interesting... I wonder if that is the same reason why WDW's number are so inflated lately..since one single person with a ...say... 4-day passport, can probably be counted as 4 guests in a fiscal year due to the nature of the ticket system.
Originally Posted By WorldDisney That sucks . Oh well, its still pretty good no matter how you look at it. Heeeey, I wonder if HKDL has anything to do with this and taking away their business since they are so close now? Naaaaaah ;p
Originally Posted By irishfan >>nteresting... I wonder if that is the same reason why WDW's number are so inflated lately..since one single person with a ...say... 4-day passport, can probably be counted as 4 guests in a fiscal year due to the nature of the ticket system.<< Hasn't that always been the case? Wouldn't that be the same for say a two day pass for a tokyo park?
Originally Posted By TDLFAN In a sense... yes, but at TDR the average visit is 2 days for most guest, and of course... just like WDW, the APers do help push the numbers as well... Still even with this 1% drop, TDR is in the black and healthy enough to afford big celebrations and the like.
Originally Posted By SuperDry If a 2-day visit is the most common, I wonder what the breakdown is between people doing both days at TDL vs. one day at TDL and one day at TDS? If quite a few people do one day at each of the parks, then this is one reason why they're unlikely to offer park-hoppers on 1- or 2-day tickets - having one full day at TDS must help reduce overcrowding at TDL by a great deal. Also, I have to wonder about the notion of the average visit being two days. [Pointy-head talk warning:] I wonder if "average" means the mean, median, or mode? I can see the the mean visit being 2 days, but I would think that the mode would certainly be 1 day, at least for those visitors that are "commuting" to the park as a day trip from their homes. About 25% of the population of Japan is in the greater Tokyo area, but I would expect that region to represent a much higher percentage of TDR guests, and that most of them would commute rather than stay on-site. So I guess what I'm saying is that I would expect on-site visitors to be mostly 3- or 4-day visits, and commuters to be mostly 1-day visits. So, the "average" (mean) visit may be 2 days, even though it's may be the least popular among guests. Another factor is that 2-night on-site visitors may be likely to get an evening ticket on the day of arrival, and then a 2-day pass for the next two days because it's slightly cheaper. I'm sure there are smart people at OLC that know all the ins and outs of this, and I'd be willing to bet that the reason for the lack of parkhopping on the 1st or 2nd day of multi-day tickets is found in these details.
Originally Posted By SuperDry There are three kinds of "averages": mean, median, and mode. When "average" is commonly used, the "mean" version is what's usually meant. Without looking at a dictionary, here are the SD definitions of the three types of averages: Mean: Standard mathmatical average - add up all the values and divide by the number of values. Median: The single value that has an equal number of samples above and below it. Mode: The most common value. These three types of averages can be similar, or very different depending on the sample set. Which one you want to use depends on what you're trying to measure. Take for example the hypothetical situation of a room full of 36 full-time workers: 30 people work at minimum wage hourly jobs earning about $13,000/year, 5 people work salaried positions earning $60,000/year, and the final guy is Bill Gates who earns $1 billion a year. What is the "average" salary of the above group? Well, "average" usually means the mean, so with the above situation, the average (mean) salary is almost $28 million. While that's mathematically accurate, is that really a good measure of the "average" wage of the people in that room? Probably not, as Bill Gates skews the calculation so much that the mean is not really meaningful in any useful way. The median of this situation is probably $60,000/year, as this value is closest to having the same amount above and below it (although this is a very poor example). The mode is $13,000/year, as it's the most common value. When you read about home prices in the US, you almost always read about the "median home price" and not the "average home price." This is because the figure listed is not the mean price, but the median price (duh!). This prevents a small number of ultra-high-priced homes from skewing the numbers, and makes the "median home price" that's reported a number that's actually relevant to the most number of people, rather than some abstract, irrelevant figure that may be technically accurate. So, what does this all have to do with TDR ticketing? Obviously, I don't have access to the actual figures. But isn't it possible that the reality of the situation is soemthing like 75% of guests buy 1-day tickets, and most of the remaining 25% buy 3- or 4-day tickets? If this were the case, it could very easily be that the "average" (i.e. "mean") ticket is for "2 days" even though the 2-day ticket is the least popular ticket purchased. If this were true, then it's probably also true that there are two very distinct guest behaviors that need to be modeled by OLC: those of the 1-day visitors, and those of the 3-4 day visitors. They could have completely different behaviors as far as how they spend their time and their money in the parks. If this were true, you can imagine that it would be a huge mistake to make some calculation that said that the "average" resort visit was for 2 days and then make you planning based on that figure. Your "average" resort visit as calculated by the mean would be correct in almost none of the actual cases, yet your entire plannig model could revolve around that assumption. This is why a statement like "the average visit to TDR is for 2 days" must be very carefully scrutinized. There could be an inadvertant fundamental flaw incorporated into the number, and/or the calculation method. It also could be that the person quoting such a figure is deliberately cherry-picking a particular figure to make a point, and while that figure in isolation may be accurate per se, it may not have any relation to the totality of the situation. As an example, I would use the situation of a stat such as "TDR has by far the highest number of paid single-day passports sold at a discount of any Disney resort." Such a statement may very well be true in a mathematical sense while at the same time providing an impression to the casual and relatively uninformed reader that's completely the opposite of the real situation. Okay, I now take my propeller hat off and now return to the regular discussion of why TDS rocks and DCA sucks, even though attendance at TDS is "down" and that at DCA is "up."
Originally Posted By Park Hopper Hey, when we went to Japan in 2005 we visited both the Aichi World Exposition and the Tokyo Disney Resort. I don't know why everybody couldn't have done that! What's wrong with these Japanese people and their either/or mentality?
Originally Posted By leemac <<but at TDR the average visit is 2 days for most guest>> Not sure where you got that from TDLFAN but it is much much lower (less than 1.1 days per visitor actually).
Originally Posted By irishfan ^^^ Thats makes more since, as surely the average guest is just a day tripper.
Originally Posted By WorldDisney ^^Yeah, that does make more sense to me too since I'm assuming most people who visit the resort are locals like L.A. and hence just visit for a day.
Originally Posted By SuperDry <<< My migranes are killing me after reading that post #10!!! >>> I'm glad to be of service, as always. May the record show that I did provide a warning, then someone asked me to clarify. That will teach you. <<< Not sure where you got that from TDLFAN but it is much much lower (less than 1.1 days per visitor actually). >>> This being the case, I think they will always have a challenge in getting people into TDS. I'm increasingly coming to believe that any Disney resort that has mostly day visitors is always going to have difficulties with a second gate no matter what they do. Given a choice, people want to go do Disneyland - it may just be that simple. The reason the multiple parks work at WDW is because most people go for several days and many stay on site. Leemac, while we're talking numbers, if the average guest stay is for 1.1 days, I think that would also mean that the vast majority of tickets sold are single-day tickets. Do you know the breakdown between the two parks for this type of ticket? Getting at the same thing from another angle, would it be fair to say that most visitors to TDS are multi-day visitors (or APers)?
Originally Posted By LuvDatDisney ^^What I'd like to know is how many one day passes they sell for TDS and how many they sell for DCA. That would be interesting.
Originally Posted By TDLFAN >>Not sure where you got that from TDLFAN but it is much much lower (less than 1.1 days per visitor actually).<< I thought I read that somewhere in some japanese newspaper not long ago... Asahi maybe? However, I am not surprise it is actually less. Makes sense.
