Originally Posted By Darkbeer <a href="http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1548" target="_blank">http://www.zogby.com/news/Read...?ID=1548</a> >>Pollster John Zogby: "Clearly, Palin is helping the McCain ticket. She has high favorability numbers, and has unified the Republican Party. The striking thing here in this poll is that McCain has pulled ahead among Catholics by double-digits. On the other hand, Palin is not helping with likely voting women who are not aligned with either political party. The undecided independent women voters decreased this week from 15% to 7%, but those women went to Obama. Palin is also helping among men, conservatives, notably with suburban and rural voters, and with frequent Wal-Mart shoppers, who tend to be "values" voters who like a good value for their money."<< And the margin of error factor is only about half the lead that McCain has.... Should be an interesting next two months....
Originally Posted By Mr X ***The striking thing here in this poll is that McCain has pulled ahead among Catholics by double-digits.*** No surprise there. With a McCain win, Roe v Wade will soon be a thing of the past. Count on it.
Originally Posted By oc_dean I say this is all superficial. This is all flying high on her rousing speech at the convention. Well .. how about we get past all that "fluff" ... and get down to business and serious matters like how the McCain/Palin ticket is going to help the economy, among other pressing issues?
Originally Posted By oc_dean If any of those bumps are due to the all the rah-rah-rah cheering at the convention ... How about Rational America (if there is one) take those glossy, exciting conventions and speeches for what they are, and then see what the next several weeks materialize, to make up their minds. It's like my complaint about the Disney Character changes to 'it's a small world'. Are people so caught up with the slick looking "facade" that, that is all anyone needs anymore to be convinced that "everything's all hunky dory"? uhhh ... take a look at what's "behind". You might be surprised at what you see.
Originally Posted By SingleParkPassholder Well, that's it. The latest Zogby poll, done two months before the election and right after a rousing personal attack sppech by their designated pit bull has the Republicans up by an insurmountable "almost four points". No need to do anything further. It's over. Sheesh.
Originally Posted By Darkbeer One interesting note, how Governor Palin has increased the Catholic vote. That is a sign that many Hispanic voters will vote Republican, as the majority of Hispanic are members of the Catholic Church.
Originally Posted By SingleParkPassholder Darkbeer, are you really so backwards as to support someone who would force a loved one of yours to keep a rape or incest child?
Originally Posted By SingleParkPassholder It's an honest question Darkbeer. We all know you're around here somewhere. Answer it and show your own thoughts for a change. Could you look a loved one in the eye and tell her you're for someone who would do that to her? I'm curious to find out how anyone could support someone like that. It's basic human decency.
Originally Posted By SingleParkPassholder I also don't see how this position of Palin's reconciles at all with the Republican mantra of "less government" in an individual's life. If a law making a rape victim have the baby isn't the ultimate intrusion into one's life, besides the rape itself, I don't know what is.
Originally Posted By fkurucz <<With a McCain win, Roe v Wade will soon be a thing of the past.>> Are there any SC Justice vacancies coming up? If so, will the Democrat controlled Congress just roll over and play dead?
Originally Posted By Dabob2 Good questions, SPP. Maybe Darkbeer will have the stones to answer, maybe not. FWIW, Gallup still has Obama up two, I think Rasmussen also. As several of us predicted two weeks ago, Obama got a decent convention "bump" then McCain got his bump, and we're essentially back where we started.
Originally Posted By SingleParkPassholder "Good questions, SPP. Maybe Darkbeer will have the stones to answer, maybe not." I'm not holding my breath.
Originally Posted By chickendumpling I agree with oc_dean in post #3: this is just convention bounce. Frankly, it is not a very good bounce either. Obama got about an 8 pt bounce with virtually no after convention media coverage (hurricane + Palin announcement + holiday weekend occupied press coverage that normally would've been spent on Obama). But after McCain announced Palin we went straight to RNC and it's been non-stop coverage that only generated half the bounce? I wouldn't be too excited about that if I were heading the campaign - especially given the fact that McCains' numbers have taken a serious hit among independents.
Originally Posted By mawnck You guys are doing it again. Getting distracted. Losing focus. I just watched McCain on Meet the Press, and he said ALL the things I've been wishing one of the candidates would say for this whole election. That the ENTIRE government is corrupt, BOTH parties, and that somebody's gotta get in there and knock some heads together or it'll never get fixed. If he sells me on the idea that he's the guy who will do this, I'm going to be seriously considering voting for him, Palin be durned. (And as I'm constantly reminding the Repubs, "no he's not no he's not" isn't going to cut it.) I have not heard Obama or Biden say the same, except in the most general, campaigny sort of terms. If the economy gets REALLY bad, like Germany in the 1920s bad, Roe vs. Wade isn't going to matter much. Obama needs to get on the stick and convince me that he, too, understands that corruption is the biggest factor in our current economic mess, and he has the skills and cajones to stand up to the System and fix it. McCain has found the message that's going to win him the moderates, and Palin is the cover he needed to deliver said message without losing all the extreme right-wingers. As the economy accelerates its drain circling, this message is only going to increase in appeal. If the Dems don't quit foaming at the mouth about this awful Palin person (and she's awful, I'm not saying she's not), they're going to be finding themselves trying to explain away the importance of McCain/Palin's 12% lead.
Originally Posted By Dabob2 You saw McCain on Meet the Press? I watched that today and saw Biden. Maybe McCain was on Face the Nation or This Week? Anyway, I disagree that corruption is our biggest issue. I agree with what inlandemporer said; McCain is proposing Bush's policies minus the corruption. That's not a fundamental change, and it won't fundamentally change our economy. We'll still be swimming in red ink, we'll still be mired in Iraq (and maybe Iran - and that and red ink are not unrelated), we'll still be letting under-regulated financial institutions and corporations run roughshod over us... McCain does not promise to fundamentally alter Bush's economic direction, just to cut out the corruption. Even IF he could manage that (and there's a big difference between promising to do it and doing it - MOST politicians posit themselves as "anti-corruption"), we'd still be on Bush's economic path. And it's not a good one. Bush's policies without the corruption isn't what we need right now.
Originally Posted By gadzuux >> Palin is also helping among men, conservatives, notably with suburban and rural voters, and with frequent Wal-Mart shoppers, who tend to be "values" voters who like a good value for their money. << Wal-Mart shoppers?! Is this a voter demographic now? They tend to be "values" voters? This sounds like a dumb joke, but they don't seem to be kidding. Ironically, there was a news story about a month or so back in which wal-mart management was not to subtlely letting it be known that there would be hell to pay for employees who were obama supporters. And - for the record - I occasionally shop at wal-mart, and feel a little guilty about it when I do. It's just that they're right across the street from where I work every day, and it's convenient and, yes, cheap. I'm not going to swear them off entirely, but now I'm going to think twice and even three times before going in there. It's against my 'moral values'.
Originally Posted By planodisney Gallup has McCain up by 3 points today and that gap should widen tomorrow. It is basically a dead heat and the debates and turn out will determine this election. After the Democratic convention and the Obama speach in front of 80,000 people, I thought it was going to be very difficult for McCain to bring this race home, but it looks like he has a very good shot.
Originally Posted By mawnck >>After the Democratic convention and the Obama speach in front of 80,000 people, I thought it was going to be very difficult for McCain to bring this race home, but it looks like he has a very good shot.<< ... provided the new "Palin is a racist" thing doesn't stick ...
Originally Posted By Mrs ElderP This guy has an entirly different take: <a href="http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/" target="_blank">http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/</a> For those of you who don't want to click on the link, he's got Obama up 303 to 234 on the electoral vote and in the popular vote ahead 50% to 47.5%. I heard an interview with him on WNYC's On The Media today. (An NPR program) His is sort of a Meta-Poll, combining all polls he get his hands on, adjusting for past reliablity of each poll, as well as using other statistical information. Interestingly enough he came to this field (election statistics) by way of sports statistics. After spending time predicting such things as how many homeruns A-Rod would hit in the comming season he moved on to this. During the interview he did single out Zagby as one of the least reliable polls. Of course, this all just a case of my experts are cooler than your experts until it's done and someone has one. *Then* it becomes a case of my experts WERE cooler than your experts!! (During the same show there was an interesting bit by an ex-Gallop pollster on how polls are manipulated.)
