Originally Posted By Mr X Any pre-decision conjecture? Want to throw out your predictions and see if you are in-line with the big nine? Seems like this issue might be settled as early as today or tomorrow, either way they swing it's going to be big news. Thoughts?
Originally Posted By Mr X My prediction: it'll come down to a 5/4 squeaker. I know, I'm really sticking my neck out, but that's my prediction and I'm sticking to it!
Originally Posted By Dabob2 My first thought is that they'll probably save this for Monday rather than today. (Now that I've said that, watch: breaking news in 5...4...3...2...1...) I also think a 5-4 decision in favor of equality is the most likely. Possibly 6-3, if Roberts is conscious of his legacy and wants to be on the right side of history. My guess is that if he does that, he will write a separate concurring opinion that bases it on gender discrimination rather than gay people per se being covered by the 14th amendment. He seemed to be testing the waters for that during oral arguments. I further predict that if the decision is indeed for equality, that there will be a flareup of backlash for the next year or so. Some right-wingers are already vowing that this "won't be over," and will be the next Roe V. Wade. I further predict that they will be wrong. They will try, and may even create legal mischief for awhile, but they will fail. It won't be the next Roe v. Wade, but the next Loving v. Virginia (which is a much much closer analog to begin with, obviously). We already have more of the country backing marriage equality now than supported interracial marriage in 1967. And those who opposed interracial marriage then either got over it, or continued to oppose it - but impotently in terms of the law. Hey, some people went to their graves thinking interracial marriage was wrong. Some people STILL think so. And they have every right to think so. But their views didn't resonate with the country as a whole, and the same will happen here. In the decades to come you'll still have people convinced it's wrong, but most of the country will support it, and young people will be amazed it was ever even a controversy.
Originally Posted By skinnerbox Decision won't be given until Monday. After the biggest Pride weekend in the nation. Don't know if that's a good thing or not-so-good thing. Thoughts?
Originally Posted By Dabob2 Did they say definitively not until Monday? I always assumed it would come on the last day of decisions, but they are announcing other decisions tomorrow as well as Monday. And I thought they didn't announce ahead of time which decisions come when. I expected King v Burwell (Obamacare) to be announced on the last day, too. Historical note: if they did announce tomorrow, that's the anniversary of the Stonewall Rebellion. It would be pretty poetic if they decided for equality on that anniversary. But I know full well that they announce when they announce, with little to no consideration of such things.
Originally Posted By ecdc I think tomorrow is the last day of the court and last day for decisions. Five left. A great day today. Obamacare is pretty much here to stay.
Originally Posted By Tikiduck I wonder if Vegas takes bets on this type of thing? Great news on Obamacare, and if that is any indication of the court doing the right, (and legal) thing, then it should be a go.
Originally Posted By Kar2oonMan I predict gay marriage will win and then I can get on with my real hidden agenda, which is marrying a farm animal. (I think I overheated my Sarcast-O-Meter on that one.)
Originally Posted By skinnerbox I heard that it's unlikely for the court to release all five decisions tomorrow and that some should be released on Monday, which lead to the speculation that gay marriage would probably be announced then. While everyone is expecting this decision to favor LGBT marriage rights, I wouldn't be surprised to see a 5-4 decision allowing individual states to not conduct gay marriages themselves but only be required to honor gay marriages from other states. That allows the more conservative Justices wiggle room in tossing a bone to the religious groups against gay marriage (an important political component of the GOP) while simultaneously maintaining the Constitutionality of gay marriage overall. If the decision comes out tomorrow, it will be 5-4 in favor of Federal protection for gay marriage across the board, with no leeway for states wanting to opt out of performing gay marriages. But if the decision does not come out tomorrow, then I expect a 5-4 decision in allowing the states to ban performing gay marriages but forcing them to honor marriages from other states.
Originally Posted By mrkthompsn Amendment X alone should cover marriage legality for all (government marriages, not holy matrimony)
Originally Posted By ecdc What a day. What. A. Day. No equivocating here. 14th Amendment guarantees a right to marriage.
Originally Posted By mrkthompsn The tenth amendment. No need to go to 14 amendment. Y'all still need to repent.
Originally Posted By SingleParkPassholder mrkthompsn, this decision today is a legal f--- you to you and yours. Repent your ass. Pleasantries out of the way, this decision is the proper one. It's one I have said for years and years was the only way to go. Nonetheless, prepare for gasbags such as thompsn here and other losers to spew all sorts of hate. I would also be mindful of the fact that a similar sect is against abortion, and every now and then while they are against the death of unborn fetuses, they have no problem cowardly using s sniper's bullet or a bomb to kill medical personnel who perform them. It seems so somewhat wrong to have to say congratulations to those who have now been granted what should all along have been a fundamental right, but just the same. congratulations to those affected. Welcome to just a little but more equality.
Originally Posted By ecdc >>Y'all still need to repent.<< You need to obtain some basic critical thinking skills and quit believing in fairy tales.
