Originally Posted By Mr X Well, I had a chat from my Dad, who lives in one of those "pro-America" sort of places. (you know the ones, Palin talks about them all the time) And he said he is convinced that Obama has NO chance. He doesn't care about the polls, he believes they aren't accurate. He thinks the Bradley effect will be out in FULL FORCE come November 4th. As much as I talked about the momentum, and the excitement, and the electorate outlook...he firmly believes that Obama will be defeated handily on November 4th. (he's a liberal, by the way...albeit a cynical one) He also sadly reported to me that he has heard use of the "N" word more often these past few months than he has heard in his LIFETIME (including 4 years service in the Navy) in reference to Obama. I'm really bummed after getting off the phone with him this time.
Originally Posted By WorldDisney Wow dude, that sucks . Of course, I hope your dad is wrong or strictly in a state that will be going to McCain anyway. I certainly not where your dad is and lets be real, we seen ENOUGH video's to get an idea what the heartland thinks , but I think for all the people who wont vote for Obama solely because of race will be outmatched by people who, including first time voters, is just as excited to have him as President. I just cant fanthom that there are THAT many people still who is afraid of having a Black President, especially one who seems just as inclusive as anyone (but I guess these are the same people who thinks he's terrorist loving Muslim, so yeah, scratch that last argument ). And also, I was reading somewhere yesterday where a person mentioned the Bradley effect has not really happened again SINCE Tom Bradley's run as Governor and all the Black candidates who was marginally ahead or above average in the polls a few weeks before election have all gotten in their perspective positions. He is saying the Bradley effect is being overplayed and Obama's lead is only widening not narrowing, so it would be odd to see him not only defeated, but in a landslide at this point. Anway, we'll see.
Originally Posted By utahjosh That's awful. Even though I don't support Obama, I think he'll win. And if he loses because of racism, that's terrible.
Originally Posted By WorldDisney ^^Yeah, I'm just the opposite of you utahjosh, I really do want him to win, but if he does lose, PLEASE lose on the issues. It would break me, seriously break me as a Black man if he loses the majority of votes because of his race in 2008. I dont know, it would make me bitter at America over it, 100 times over electing Bush again. NOT because he would lose, but because of the racial component with it. I am prepared to see that happen of course and still 50-50 on if he will win. I just dont let myself to believe he will win yet (although admittedly everyday I allow myself a little more ), but dont let him lose over that.
Originally Posted By RoadTrip Even heartland states are leaning democratic for the first time in years. I'm amazed when I look at the electoral map and see Obama leading in Ohio, Indiana, Iowa, Colorado, and my God, in NORTH FREAKING DAKOTA!! I didn’t even think it was legal to vote for a Democrat in North Dakota.
Originally Posted By barboy I'd bet that Obama gets a net gain of votes due to his ethnicity--- somewhat like 'reverse discrimination'
Originally Posted By oc_dean I'm more optimistic. He stands a great chance. The so called "Bradley Affect" happened some 25 years ago. A QUARTER of a century. And though there's still racism in this country ... I don't think it's any worse since then .. in fact, I think there's been an improvement. Wishful thinking? Perhaps. But even my elders threw that "N" word around. But now .. they realize their mistake. It's not 1950 anymore.
Originally Posted By TheRedhead ABC News had an interesting story on the Bradley effect a while ago. They pointed out that there have been 3 big-type elections (I forget what they were) where a Black man won in the last 10 years, and the polling that led up to the election accurately projected the outcome. They also pointed out how all the polling for the Democratic primary race was dead on as well - it appeared that when people said they'd vote for Obama over Hillary in whatever state, they actually did. Things are nuts right now. And I think if you live in an area that's leaning one guy's way, it may seem that the election will go his way. I live in Northern Virginia (proud to say I'm not a real Virginian, Mr. McCain), and the way people carry on, you'd think the election was yesterday and Obama already won. It ain't over til blah blah.
Originally Posted By WorldDisney <<They also pointed out how all the polling for the Democratic primary race was dead on as well - it appeared that when people said they'd vote for Obama over Hillary in whatever state, they actually did.>> That's the point people seem to miss over and over again and why I'm optimistic that he wont lose based ONLY on race. It seems to me, if the guy was going to experience the Bradley effect in any significant way, it wouldve happened in the primaries already. The polling shouldve been very off there since its safe to say the people who put him through the primaries will pretty much be voting for him on election day. They alone proved the Bradley affect is more minimum than told. I just dont see how the polls could be so different from the primaries compared to the actual election at this point? And sure, its the general election now and more people voting and all of that, but it still seems to go the same way since most people seem to be honest in the primaries, why would it shift all of a sudden in the generals?
Originally Posted By mawnck FWIW, X, I'm with your dad. I lived in the South way too long to expect otherwise. If Obama had a 25 point lead in the polls, then I'd feel good about this. But I went through the first Helms/Gantt senate race. Gantt (black centerist Dem) had a 10-point lead over Helms (KKK Grand Wizard) the day of the election, 20 points of which evaporated by the time polls closed. That taught me that riled up racists slither to the polls in droves. And they certainly are riled up, thanks to Winky. Add in the voting machines, and the nationwide disenfranchisement campaign the GOP is mounting, and the legal challenges, and the "stolen election" talk, and the likelihood of overwhelmed polling places, and Al Qaeda, and the crazies with guns, and the guy currently in the White House who doesn't let a little thing like the Constitution harsh his mellow ... there are still lots and lots of chances for Obama to not take office.
Originally Posted By WorldDisney Wow Mawnck, that DOES sound bad!! But to be fair guys, you are only talking about one section of the country and yes, a very big section, but one nonetheless. You bought up the Senate race which of course takes place in one state and if its a state that's usually red,then yeah its an uphill battle regardless. Dont get me wrong, Im not saying you guys are wrong and that none of this cant happen, Im just saying I dont see it being as country wide as some areas of the South thats all and Obama just has to hold on to one or two swing states at this point. I just dont see them ALL going to McCain all of a sudden, but I guess we'll see.
Originally Posted By RoadTrip You can see by the desperation of the he's a Muslim/radical/socialist/terrorist crowd that even THEY smell an Obama victory. By the way... did you ever notice that if you take ‘Obama’ and drop the 'a' and change the 'm' to an 'n'; you get the name of a very pleasant (though not great) single malt scotch? Oban. Just thought I'd share.
Originally Posted By hopemax >I'm really bummed after getting off the phone with him this time. < Take a look at the maps and numbers on RCP... <a href="http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/" target="_blank">http://www.realclearpolitics.c..._mccain/</a> They list not only this election but results but the results of the last 2 elections. Look at the percentages that Kerry and Gore won by and then look at Obama's: Single digit leads have turned into double digit leads. If you believe in Bradley (which I don't) Obama needs leads of +6. Look at the swing in states Obama is leading in, that Bush won... Even look at the states Obama may still lose... Alaska has every reason to vote for the McCain/Palin ticket. They have +15 McCain, but look at the previous two elections, Bush +20 and +30. Texas is +13.6 for McCain, but Bush won by +22. We're talking about Indiana as a toss-up, Bush won by 15 or 20%. Montana is down to McCain +3, but Bush won by 2o and 25%! Sure there are the states like Tennessee and Alabama that are really red then and now, but those are the minority. And were they going to vote for a Democrat anyway? Local boy, Al Gore couldn't even win TN. I think this election is going to show, that there are many areas where race doesn't matter, and that there still are many areas that race does matter. But they are the areas you pretty much expected anyway.
Originally Posted By hopemax And for dessert, how about this little nugget. Now, while I think the odds of AZ actually going blue are slim, it shouldn't even be up for discussion! This is from Daily Kos... Myers Research (D) & Grove Insight (D). 10/23-24. Likely voters. MoE 4% (No trend lines) Likely voters McCain (R) 44 Obama (D) 40 Early voters (34% of the sample) McCain (R) 46 Obama (D) 47 The sample was 40 percent Republican, 33 Democratic, and 26 percent independent. ASU has its own survey coming Monday, and they've hinted at similar results. Makes me wish I would've polled Arizona instead of Tennessee.
Originally Posted By beamerdog >>By the way... did you ever notice that if you take ‘Obama’ and drop the 'a' and change the 'm' to an 'n'; you get the name of a very pleasant (though not great) single malt scotch?<< phew, that one's a streth, RT, lol. For what it's worth, I was a statistics major in grad school and I never trust any of these polls. I give them a +/- of 30%.
Originally Posted By beamerdog Or, rather an over/under of 30 out of 100. I just wish I weren't gambling with my life.
