Originally Posted By Mr X <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/americas/06/05/brazil.plane.crash/index.html" target="_blank">http://edition.cnn.com/2009/WO...dex.html</a> ***"It has been verified that the material did not belong to the plane," Brig. Ramon Borges Cardoso told reporters in Recife, Brazil, about the material recovered Thursday. "It is a pallet of wood that is utilized for transport. It is used in planes, but on this flight to Paris, there was no wooden pallet." He added that oil slicks seen on the ocean were not from the plane either and that the quantity of oil exceeded the amount the plane would have carried. "No material from the airplane was picked up," he said. The announcement left open the question of whether other debris that had not yet been plucked from the ocean might be from the plane.*** So, what does this mean? Have any other planes been reported as missing? I'm VERY confused!! (also, I think it's a little weird that this info has been floating around the internets for pretty much a whole day before being picked up by CNN...I understand "due diligence" and all that, but is there no such thing as "breaking news" in the mainstream media anymore!?) Thoughts? Conjecture? All I can think is that this was somehow a midair collision of some sort. Of course, all the facts are not in yet (nor might they ever be)...but, maybe a drug running plane contributed the debris they found? Or a military jet of some sort?
Originally Posted By wahooskipper I don't know but I'd sure like them to figure it out quickly. I'm flying an Airbus...over the Atlantic...next week. But, I'm afraid they will never find the answers which will be very sad for the families of the victims.
Originally Posted By Mr X I'm totally sure you will be fine Wahoo. Seriously, bro...if you're really worried, just look at the statistics. The odds of you having trouble are comparable to striking gold and subsequently getting hit by lighting on the same day. Or something like that. And if you're worried about airbus, they seem to be extremely safe to me. And any last minute info will surely be passed on to your pilot, who (don't forget) wants to land safely just as much as you do! Happy travels! Will we get a trip report on this Atlantic crossing of yours?
Originally Posted By wahooskipper Perhaps. We are off to Italy (via Zurich) for a wedding. Stops include Rome, Florence/Siena, Venice and Milan before we head back. No Mickey on this trip but lots and lots of wine!
Originally Posted By velo wahooskipper - my son is flying Air France to Paris in a week; I've got the same, um, nervousness... (in general, I know that Airbus' are very safe planes but it's going to be a long day when he leaves..)
Originally Posted By wahooskipper I'm no more concerned about flying after this crash than I was before. Fact of the matter is, the odds are more favorable for a safe trip as airline crashes are so uncommon and a second crash within a couple of weeks would be extremely rare. That said, I still hope they can find SOME information just to provide closure for those families.
Originally Posted By Dabob2 <Perhaps. We are off to Italy (via Zurich) for a wedding. Stops include Rome, Florence/Siena, Venice and Milan before we head back. No Mickey on this trip but lots and lots of wine!> Dang, dude, what a great trip. Enjoy!
Originally Posted By SingleParkPassholder Here's a rather interesting thread about this flight from a well respected aviation board. A lot of it is technical jargon, but nonetheless good reading. They discourage wild speculation. <a href="http://discussions.flightaware.com/viewtopic.php?t=8463&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=0" target="_blank">http://discussions.flightaware...&start=0</a>
Originally Posted By SuperDry <<< Fact of the matter is, the odds are more favorable for a safe trip as airline crashes are so uncommon and a second crash within a couple of weeks would be extremely rare. >>> What was your grade in statistics? The real fact of the matter is that the odds of a safe trip next week are exactly the same as they always have been, without respect to what happened this week.
Originally Posted By wahooskipper Never took statistics. But, you will have to walk me through that. The odds of being killed in a plane crash are X. There are Y number of plane crashes in a year. So, I have to guess that the Air France plane going down would statistically mean there is that lesser of a chance that mine will go down. But, I'll admit, math is not my strong suit.
Originally Posted By SuperDry <<< The odds of being killed in a plane crash are X. There are Y number of plane crashes in a year. So, I have to guess that the Air France plane going down would statistically mean there is that lesser of a chance that mine will go down. >>> There may be an *average* of Y plane crashes a year based on the number of flights and the probability X that any particular flight will crash, but the actual number of crashes a year will vary. But when a plane does crash, the odds of the very next flight crashing or any other particular flight crashing are just the same as they were before (setting aside issues like increased pilot and maintenance vigilance). It's a very common statistics misunderstanding. Instead of plane crashes, consider the roll of the dice. Rolling a single die has a 1/6 chance of each of the particular outcomes. Let's say that by chance you roll three 6's in a row. What is the probability that the next roll is a 6? It would be a mistake to say that it's very low, since the chances of rolling four 6's in a row is very remote. In reality, the chances that the next roll is a 6 is the same as it always was: 1 in 6. While it's true that two major unrelated airplane disasters on subsequent weeks are rare, that's just because plane crashes in general are rare, so they tend to be spread out. If it were two weeks ago and you were betting on the odds of having a major plane crash this week and another next week, then yes, that would be an exceedingly rare event. But in your situation, boarding a single flight next week, the odds of that flight crashing are the same as they always were, without respect to what happened this week.
Originally Posted By wahooskipper Man...it is like a rebirth for me. Where have you been all my life? No wonder I always lose in Vegas!!! But, explain to me why celebrities always die in 3's.
Originally Posted By wahooskipper Thanks much. I'll be thinking of all my LP friends while I'm over there. I think I posted from northern Italy a couple of times when I was over there last. But, if it comes down to drinking wine in the country side or posting on LP then...well...I'll catch up with ya'll when I get back to the States!
Originally Posted By Ursula Post #12 is a great example of why the casinos show the last 20 numbers hit on a craps table on a bright big sign with flashy lights. They WANT you to think that either 7 (or whatever) will or will not come up again. (and I'm not neglecting a possible mis-weighted table or a dealer's uncanny knack for always releasing the ball at the same spot using the same force, either) It's not like the ball or the die remembers where it hit last time...
Originally Posted By RockyMtnMinnie >>>It's a very common statistics misunderstanding. Instead of plane crashes, consider the roll of the dice. Rolling a single die has a 1/6 chance of each of the particular outcomes. Let's say that by chance you roll three 6's in a row. What is the probability that the next roll is a 6? It would be a mistake to say that it's very low, since the chances of rolling four 6's in a row is very remote. In reality, the chances that the next roll is a 6 is the same as it always was: 1 in 6.<<< That would be true if a plane crash is a factor of chance. But the odds are much more likely that any given air flight will land safely and not crash. The odds that two planes would crash on two consecutive days are statistically even slimmer. Yes, it could happen. But statistically if you look at it as a factor of two planes crashing in a certain time period, than statistically the odds are less likely that the second plane would crash, than if you look at the odds of a single event happening (aka only one plane will crash in a specific time period).
