Originally Posted By Mr X Or, at least, there are smarter folks out there than them who understand how the process is playing out this year. I tend to go with "MSM hype" though, they want a close race and they've convinced everyone that's what it is. But wall street disagrees. There is a place now where you can "invest" in the candidate of your choice. It's called the WORLD SPORTS EXCHANGE (WSEX.COM.) Futures on both candidates that trade like stocks. McCain currently $37-$42 bid ask and Obama is $60-$65. The price actually dropped the last 1/2 hour on McCain, after revealing his hockey-mom to the world. So, there you have it. When the bids start going strong for McCain...THEN we'll know we have a tight race.
Originally Posted By Mr X Yet another "investing" service called "intrade" is basically 60/40 Obama with a much tighter spread. Blowout city.
Originally Posted By gadzuux Pollsters don't call cell phones - only 'land lines'. A huge number of young americans only have cell phones and no land line. This means that people without a land line are not included in polling data, which skews the results to older americans who are more inclined to favor McCain.
Originally Posted By DlandDug This is really pathetic. So the REAL place to get accurate political analysis is a fantasy league betting service. Yeah.
Originally Posted By DlandDug >>This means that people without a land line are not included in polling data, which skews the results to older americans who are more inclined to favor McCain.<< And more inclined to vote, too. The only poll that really matters in the one that happens on election day.
Originally Posted By mawnck I still think the election will be decided by Putin. And if not him, then by how many Amurcans refuse to vote for a - what are they calling it now? Oh yes, "exotic."
Originally Posted By mawnck Not a card, and not a political argument. Just what I believe. I believe there are more voters for whom race is the only issue than there are voters for whom abortion is the only issue. If McCain had chosen a black running mate, these people would've just stayed home. It has nothing to do with ideology, and, so far as I can tell, nothing to do with any posters on this forum.
Originally Posted By ecdc >>Pollsters don't call cell phones - only 'land lines'. A huge number of young americans only have cell phones and no land line. This means that people without a land line are not included in polling data, which skews the results to older americans who are more inclined to favor McCain.<< This is an important argument. And yes, older people are more likely to vote, but if you're not surveying a good portion of the electorate, if only, say, 40% of them do vote, it's still a huge number you're missing. For example, both my wife and I only have cell phones. We're both voting Obama, and we haven't been surveyed.
Originally Posted By Mrs ElderP I've seen the "fantasy" leagues coverage in various places all through the primaries. If I recall correctly, they have been wrong before, but not often. Also, I seem to remember that those "leauges" where you have to put up some of your money and you win actual money tend to be more accurate. "The power of group think" or something like that...
Originally Posted By ecdc >>This is really pathetic. So the REAL place to get accurate political analysis is a fantasy league betting service. Yeah.<< Hmmm. I seem to recall someone saying yesterday that it's impossible to have a reasonable conversation on these boards. I suppose that's true when you go around calling other people's posts "pathetic" instead of just responding to them. What's even more pathetic is ignoring the obvious humor in X's post, smiley face emoticon and all.
