Originally Posted By ecdc <a href="http://money.cnn.com/2007/08/16/markets/markets_1200/index.htm?cnn=yes" target="_blank">http://money.cnn.com/2007/08/1 6/markets/markets_1200/index.htm?cnn=yes</a> Stocks are plummeting. My guess is they won't turn around too quickly, but I hope I'm wrong. Any time there's a recession or even a Depression, it's typically preceded by warning signs that are largely ignored. In this case, the housing market and the plight of the middle-class have gone unnoticed by those raking in the dough over the market.
Originally Posted By wahooskipper If you are concerned about the short term activity of the stock market then you shouldn't be in the stock market to begin with.
Originally Posted By RoadTrip You have to keep this in perspective. The DJIA is still 200 points ABOVE where it was two years ago. If a person invests for the long term (which should be the ONLY way anyone invests) they will be fine. If they panic now and sell stock that they bought at a considerably higher price a month ago they will have to absorb the loss resulting from their stupid actions.
Originally Posted By Sport Goofy << You have to keep this in perspective. The DJIA is still 200 points ABOVE where it was two years ago. >> Or you could consider that the DJIA is only 1,000 points above where it was 7.5 years ago -- so not even keeping up with inflation during the same period. The S&P 500 is lower today than it was 7 years ago -- so not only is it not beating inflation, it's down in absolute dollar terms as well.
Originally Posted By davewasbaloo Inflation is scary though. Here in the UK, we have had 5 0.25% interest rate hikes this year to try to compensate. That means in real terms I am paying $200 more a month on my $278,000 mortgage than I did a year ago. Reposessions in the UK have shot up to 30%!
Originally Posted By Sport Goofy Interest rates aside, hopefully the UK government does a better job of reporting inflation than the U.S. Our government's figures are so skewed towards keeping entitlement COLA adjustments low that they are meaningless as an inflation gauge.
Originally Posted By davewasbaloo I feel the UK is pretty transparent in the reporting. But this has been building for a while now. I find it really ironic that again it's at a time when Disney is investing more in California and PAris, while the economy is cooling.
Originally Posted By Kennesaw Tom Disney needs to remain competitive when vieing for customers in a free market. Especially when you have Universal Studios saying they are going to build a third gate in Orlando around the successfull Harry Potter franchise. I don't know about France, but Disney NEEDS to spend some money at DCA.
Originally Posted By RoadTrip <<Or you could consider that the DJIA is only 1,000 points above where it was 7.5 years ago -- so not even keeping up with inflation during the same period.>> My various mutual funds have an average 5-year return of 11.5% and a 10 year return of 7.4% -- and that does not include the dividends I receive. You certainly aren't going to get that kind of return from your local savings and loan!! Of course the sky is falling types never see that. ;-)
Originally Posted By Sport Goofy << Especially when you have Universal Studios saying they are going to build a third gate in Orlando around the successfull Harry Potter franchise. >> I'll be surprised if this happens close to the timeline prescribed or with the amount of development that has been proposed. I expect a significant down-sizing of this project.
Originally Posted By BeautysBeast Dont be too surprised..Ms Rowling has final say on the project so expect many millions to be invested to assure the highest quality HP experience.Just makes sense.
Originally Posted By irishfan I thought HP was going into Islands of Adventure,where and when did this third gate info pop up?
Originally Posted By jonvn I heard it's not a third gate, too. Just throwing a bunch of decor on top of an already existing area in IOA.
Originally Posted By wahooskipper I think I read a new land. They do have some areas for expansion there at IOA. I'm thinking between Jurassic Park and Dueling Dragons.
Originally Posted By jonvn Found this: Islands of Adventure is expected to convert some of The Lost Continent's current rides, such as the roller coaster The Dueling Dragons into Harry Potter themed rides. We are also likely to see such exhibits as Hogwarts Castle and The Burrow, as well as numerous shops and taverns that can be found in Rowling's fantasy world. The Wizarding World of Harry Potter is expected to open by late 2009. Universal has stated that it expects to break ground late this summer (2007), but the theme park will remain open during construction of the new Harry Potter island.
Originally Posted By fkurucz <<If you are concerned about the short term activity of the stock market then you shouldn't be in the stock market to begin with.>> True, but this could be the beginning of a nasty bear market. A lot depends on what will be done regarding the mortgage and housing market meltdown. What concerns me the most is that while only a fraction of subprime loans have reset to their non-teaser rates we are seeing record numbers of foreclosures in the US. In other words this isn't just going to blow over and take care of itself. The mortgage market is virtually paralyzed because lenders are unable to sell securities to fund loans. This is because the market is unable at this point to determine fair market value for securities that are collateralized by subprime mortgages on properties that in many markets have already lost 10-20% of their value. The market hates uncertainty and the Fed can only cut rates so far (you can't get any lower than 0%).
Originally Posted By DouglasDubh <we are seeing record numbers of foreclosures in the US> Really? When and what was the old record, and how far above that are we?
Originally Posted By wahooskipper Foreclosures in Ft Lauderdale/Palm Beach are up 74% over the first six months of 2006. I've seen homes on the market for well over a year now and NOTHING is moving.
Originally Posted By imadisneygal According to this story, the last record high quarter was in 2002 (.50%) and in the last quarter of 2006 the average foreclosure rate was .54% (the new record, which was up .08 from the third quarter 2006). <a href="http://money.cnn.com/2007/03/13/real_estate/record_high_foreclosures/index.htm?postversion=2007031312" target="_blank">http://money.cnn.com/2007/03/1 3/real_estate/record_high_foreclosures/index.htm?postversion=2007031312</a> Here's another one explaining the same info from the Mortgage Bankers Association. <a href="http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/us-new-foreclosures-record-delinquencies/story.aspx?guid=" target="_blank">http://www.marketwatch.com/new s/story/us-new-foreclosures-record-delinquencies/story.aspx?guid=</a>{47265D5E-2C72-44B7-97A1-99D439D1D1B8} A little Google goes a long way.
Originally Posted By RoadTrip I think the worst of the mortgage problems will be over in the next year. Some problems have been created by ARM rates going up or 5-year ARM's coming due now and people not being able to re-finance them. As you said, the majority of those situations may still be in the future. But I don't think that is where the major losses are coming from. The really big losses are from lax requirements for getting a mortgage resulting in people qualifying for mortgages that they really couldn't afford. And I think we have already seen most of the impact from that. I know that at least in the Twin Cities area when you look at a foreclosure map they are really concentrated in the poor parts of town... places where people really could not afford to be homeowners. As for the market; the market has been freaky since 9/11 and you almost have to expect large swings any time news is bad (or good). Already the market is back up more than 200 points from where it was a couple of days ago. I still believe that the long term investor has nothing to worry about.
