Originally Posted By Darkbeer <a href="http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/03/wrights_rantings_wont_sink_oba.html" target="_blank">http://www.realclearpolitics.c om/articles/2008/03/wrights_rantings_wont_sink_oba.html</a> >>Let's start with two basic facts: (a) Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.) has already won the Democratic nomination. It's over. Regardless of how the remaining primaries and caucuses go, including Michigan and even Florida, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) can never catch Obama in elected delegates. His current lead of 170 pledged delegates will not be overcome no matter what happens. Even if Clinton beats him by 10 points in each of these primaries, he will still lead among elected delegates by over 100. The superdelegates will not override the will of the voters unless Obama is in jail. They will not let themselves in for a civil war by overruling a black man who is beloved by the young by going over the heads of the electorate and naming the candidate that lost the primaries as the nominee. Regardless of how damaged Obama may be by the Wright tapes, it will not provide sufficient cover or cause for them to do so.<< It is over, and Hillary has no real chance of getting the Democratic nomination.
Originally Posted By Darkbeer <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/20/us/politics/20memo.html?ei=5065&en=54bceb4cb5012903&ex=1206590400&partner=MYWAY&pagewanted=print" target="_blank">http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03 /20/us/politics/20memo.html?ei=5065&en=54bceb4cb5012903&ex=1206590400&partner=MYWAY&pagewanted=print</a> >>Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton needs three breaks to wrest the Democratic presidential nomination from Senator Barack Obama in the view of her advisers. She has to defeat Mr. Obama soundly in Pennsylvania next month to buttress her argument that she holds an advantage in big general election states. She needs to lead in the total popular vote after the primaries end in June. And Mrs. Clinton is looking for some development to shake confidence in Mr. Obama so that superdelegates, Democratic Party leaders and elected officials who are free to decide which candidate to support overturn his lead among the pledged delegates from primaries and caucuses. For Mrs. Clinton, all this has seemed something of a long shot since her defeats in February. But that shot seems to have grown a little longer. <<
Originally Posted By jonvn Right now Obama is about 7 points behind mccain. This is from being 7 points ahead. He can't win, the superdelegates probably know this, and if they vote for him, they know they will vote for a loser. Same with Hillary. SO, they're in a pickle, aren't they.
Originally Posted By Mrs ElderP However, Obama is not as far behind as Hillary. I still think that this is the Dem's year, and that right now the small split in the party is changing some votes. However, when they have a canidate AND they hold the conventions AND VPs are named you will start to see small shifts in the Dem's favor.
Originally Posted By jonvn The republicans will have a convention and a VP as well. A lot depends on McCain's VP. If he picks a nutjob like Huckabee, he's really done himself a lot of damage, for people who are OK with him, are not going to be ok with a righ wing extremist.
Originally Posted By Kar2oonMan >>people who are OK with him, are not going to be ok with a righ wing extremist<< True. I don't think he'll do it, but Lieberman would be an interesting choice -- someone who is in line with McCain on the war, but is socially liberal. (Has any VP candidate ever appeared on the ticket of two different parties?) I don't know how the GOP base would feel about that choice, though.
Originally Posted By gadzuux I think some people are being overly optimistic about mccain's chances. He's easy to trip up - especially for politicians as sharp and quick on their feet as either hillary or obama. Once we get down to a 'one-on-one', I can see mccain repeatedly making serious mis-statements and gaffes. And it's not going to be hillary. Failing some terrible event befalling obama, there's just no way for hillary to take the nomination. For once, DB is right - hillary's toast.
Originally Posted By jonvn "Has any VP candidate ever appeared on the ticket of two different parties?)" Well, that's how it kind of worked originally.
Originally Posted By RoadTrip There is one way that Hillary could totally dominate the remaining primaries. Name Bill as her VP and then promise to resign as president her first day in office. Anyone know if that would be constitutional?
Originally Posted By DlandDug >>Has any VP candidate ever appeared on the ticket of two different parties?<< As far as I know, only Andrew Johnson, who ran with Lincoln for his second term. Originally, the VP was to be whoever got the second highest votes in the Electoral College. This was changed by 1804 after the rise of political parties made it unworkable. Before that time, the concept of party candidates was quite different from what evolved throughout the early 19th century.
Originally Posted By RoadTrip <<Hey, have you ever tried really reaching out for the other side?>> He can't be elected President again, or can't serve as President again (or both)?
Originally Posted By RoadTrip ^^^ I hate it when you don't have on your clipboard what you thought you had. <<He can't become President.>> He can't be elected President again, or can't serve as President again (or both)?
Originally Posted By DlandDug It's called proof reading, Trippy. Try it before hitting that SUBMIT button!
Originally Posted By jonvn Actually, what it exactly says is this: 22d Amendment Sect. 1. No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice, and no person who has held the office of President, or acted as President, for more than two years of a term to which some other person was elected President shall be elected to the office of the President more than once. So, I guess he can do it, if he's not ELECTED.
Originally Posted By gadzuux That sounds like it would preclude him from being VP. What's the point of having a vice president that cannot be president? Kind of defeats the purpose of the position.
Originally Posted By woody >>So, I guess he can do it, if he's not ELECTED.<< Bill can only only serve one term as President to serve out Hillary's term. Bill Clinton would be a lame duck President.
Originally Posted By Kar2oonMan >>What's the point of having a vice president that cannot be president?<< It helps him meet more chicks?
Originally Posted By Darkbeer <a href="http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0308/9149.html" target="_blank">http://www.politico.com/news/s tories/0308/9149.html</a> >>One big fact has largely been lost in the recent coverage of the Democratic presidential race: Hillary Rodham Clinton has virtually no chance of winning. Her own campaign acknowledges there is no way that she will finish ahead in pledged delegates. That means the only way she wins is if Democratic superdelegates are ready to risk a backlash of historic proportions from the party’s most reliable constituency. Unless Clinton is able to at least win the primary popular vote — which also would take nothing less than an electoral miracle — and use that achievement to pressure superdelegates, she has only one scenario for victory. An African-American opponent and his backers would be told that, even though he won the contest with voters, the prize is going to someone else. People who think that scenario is even remotely likely are living on another planet. As it happens, many people inside Clinton’s campaign live right here on Earth. One important Clinton adviser estimated to Politico privately that she has no more than a 10 percent chance of winning her race against Barack Obama, an appraisal that was echoed by other operatives. In other words: The notion of the Democratic contest being a dramatic cliffhanger is a game of make-believe.<<
Originally Posted By jonvn David, the latest polls shows that Clinton is actually more popular across the nation than Obama is. They are almost identical candidates anyway. I don't think either one will win the election. Best thing is that the convention is thrown into a real fight, and someone else comes out as the candidate.
