Originally Posted By Sport Goofy Latest poll of voters show Obama's lead against Clinton has slipped significantly in the past week. <a href="http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080319/pl_nm/usa_politics_poll_dc_2" target="_blank">http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/200 80319/pl_nm/usa_politics_poll_dc_2</a> He's also now trailing in the theoretical head-to-head match up with Sen. McCain. These polls generally lag the news cycle, so these numbers probably barely reflect any of the fall out over the Rev. Wright sermons. So, if Obama's numbers continue to erode in the national polls, will it influence the superdelegates? Or will they stubbornly vote for Obama if he goes into convention with a polling disadvantage for the general election? If Clinton's polling shows her beating McCain at the convention, will superdelegates give her support instead?
Originally Posted By WilliamK99 This is beautiful news for the Republicans, with McCain owning a nice lad over both Democrats in another poll. <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSN1824791220080319?feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews&rpc=22&sp=true" target="_blank">http://www.reuters.com/article /politicsNews/idUSN1824791220080319?feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews&rpc=22&sp=true</a>
Originally Posted By jonvn I am shocked. He's toast. She always was toast. The dems better figure this out and fast, or they have lost this election.
Originally Posted By Kar2oonMan Anyone can be toast. McCain just yesterday needed a little assistance from Joe Lieberman to avoid a pretty serious misstatement. At this point, any gaffe will be elevated out of all proportion. So, this is why we generally get the leaders we deserve. We have these screwy ways of determining who we are for and who we are against, and little of it is very "deep" or related to actual issues. It's all based on the latest verbal snafu, the past indescretion, any moment where a candidate actually acted human and made mistakes. Heroes are turned into traitors, wimps become macho men. Pathetic.
Originally Posted By jonvn "Anyone can be toast." Yes, they can be, but these two are. <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSN1824791220080319" target="_blank">http://www.reuters.com/article /newsOne/idUSN1824791220080319</a> Obama has swung 13 points down from where he was a couple weeks ago. That's just now. If he gets the nomination, once the Republicans are done with him, he'll have McGovern level numbers. McCain will win in a landslide, and it will be taken as a mandate to enact more Republican policies. Congrats, folks on the left. You've done a marvelous job of self-destructing.
Originally Posted By Dabob2 Polls that swing down can also swing up. Bill Clinton trailed Bush I badly in polls until about July or so. People were saying he was toast, he wouldn't recover from the "bimbo eruptions," the Democrats blew it again by nominating someone unelectable... then Bush took a bad tumble, mostly due to the economy, and never recovered.
Originally Posted By Kar2oonMan >>McCain will win in a landslide<< Maybe. But then again, you have to look at what happened yesterday. He made a pretty serious gaffe, luckily for him, it was overshadowed by Obama. Gerald Ford made a similar gaffe during a televised debate. It was a slip up, and it cost him the election. It's still too early for anyone to declare victory on either side. As Dabob points out, polls swing both ways, and it's a long way to November.
Originally Posted By jonvn "Polls that swing down can also swing up." All the republicans have to do is run that video of the minister with quotes by Obama calling him his mentor for 20 years. I am sure they also have more than that, but that'll be plenty on its own. "then Bush took a bad tumble" Bush looked at his watch during a debate. Bad thing. I don't wear wristwatches now because that is a bad habit of mine, too. "[McCain] made a pretty serious gaffe" Yeah, I saw that. So, is Lieberman his running mate, or what?
Originally Posted By Kar2oonMan >>Yeah, I saw that. So, is Lieberman his running mate, or what?<< That would be interesting. But Lieberman did a lot for McCain in that moment, allowing him to quickly recover from a statement that could have come back to haunt him later.
Originally Posted By Kar2oonMan >>All the republicans have to do is run that video of the minister with quotes by Obama calling him his mentor for 20 years.<< Yes, it's the Willie Horton playbook.
Originally Posted By jonvn "Yes, it's the Willie Horton playbook." yes....it works, too. While Obama made a nice speech, it's not as visceral as what got him in trouble in the first place. Most people in this country are not sophisticated enough to understand any of it. There are people who come even here to LP and say "USA! USA! #1! #1!" This is the greatest country in the world. When pressed to answer why, they don't know. The public in general is just not very smart.
Originally Posted By Dabob2 <<Polls that swing down can also swing up.>> <All the republicans have to do is run that video of the minister with quotes by Obama calling him his mentor for 20 years. I am sure they also have more than that, but that'll be plenty on its own.> If that's true, it's a shame. I fully understand your Mencken-like view of the American populace, but I'm hoping we're better than that. Maybe we're not. But I hope so. <<then Bush took a bad tumble>> <Bush looked at his watch during a debate. Bad thing. I don't wear wristwatches now because that is a bad habit of mine, too.> What killed Bush in '92 was the economy. Which looks like it will be the big issue this year as well. It could kill McCain if the Democrat can successfully tie him to Bush's policies (and why not? He's come closer and closer to them over the past year or so). It's a long way to November.
Originally Posted By jonvn "But I hope so." I would hope so, too. "What killed Bush in '92 was the economy." There were a few things. His tax increase, the economy, the wristwatch, leaving saddam in power, criticizing the Simpsons....
Originally Posted By Kar2oonMan >>yes....it works, too.<< Oh, I know. That's why we usually elect the person we deserve and spend four years wondering if the opponent wasn't all that bad after all.
Originally Posted By Kar2oonMan I don't really want to see any of the three remaining candidates done in by a slip up or by something someone who supports them said. All three have something better to offer us, and i'd like to hear from each of them how they plan to tackle the various issues facing us -- the war, the economy, health care, social security. I'm sure it will come down to some dopey contrivance or a trip of the tongue that in the end that will sink one of the three of them. That seems to be how it goes. It's a bizarre way to choose a president, and it makes you wonder how well past presidents would stand up in modern campaigning.
Originally Posted By DAR What did McCain say that was considered a gaffe? All the attention has been on Obama's USA whitey hating preacher.
Originally Posted By Kar2oonMan <a href="http://www.courant.com/news/nationworld/hc-mccain0319.artmar19" target="_blank">http://www.courant.com/news/na tionworld/hc-mccain0319.artmar19</a>,0,1769738.story
Originally Posted By Dabob2 He said that it was "common knowledge" that Iran was training Al Qaeda fighters to go into Iraq. Of course, Al Qaeda is fundamentalist Sunni and considers Shia (as Iran is) to be apostates. <a href="http://mediamatters.org/items/200803180007" target="_blank">http://mediamatters.org/items/ 200803180007</a> Apparently, it wasn't the first time he said this.
Originally Posted By Kar2oonMan >>Sen. John McCain, the Republican presidential nominee-in-waiting, mistakenly said Tuesday that Iran was allowing al-Qaida fighters into the country to be trained and returned to Iraq. It was Sen. Joe Lieberman, an independent from Connecticut who was traveling with McCain, who told him of his error, enabling him to correct himself.<< >>After Lieberman stepped forward to whisper in the candidate's ear, McCain said: "I'm sorry; the Iranians are training the extremists, not al-Qaida. Not al-Qaida. I'm sorry." McCain, who has linked his political future to U.S. success in Iraq, had just completed his eighth visit to Iraq. McCain's gaffe immediately drew criticism from the Democratic National Committee, which insisted he must not understand the challenges facing Iraq. "Not only is Sen. McCain wrong on Iraq once again, but he showed he either doesn't understand the challenges facing Iraq and the region or is willing to ignore the facts on the ground," said Democratic National Committee Communications Director Karen Finney.<<
