Originally Posted By Mr X Who'd you think'll be the next Prez? Short List - Clinton, Sanders, Trump, Cruz, Rubio, Bush, Carson, Christie... So make your prediction, and let's see who wins! I'm going the lamestream route and calling it for the rather obvious HILLARY CLINTON, though my sentimental favorite is Sanders. Your vote? (p.s. feel free to vote after Iowa is over)
Originally Posted By ecdc I think and hope it will be Hillary Clinton. Though I don't think that's as foregone a conclusion as others seem to, even if the GOP nominee is Trump or Cruz. I also think Sanders is extremely problematic for Democrats. I really like Sanders a lot, I admire him, and I think he's been a great public servant. But the naiveté of his supporters and this "political revolution" is astounding. Revolutions by definition are...revolutionary. They are rare. They happen once-a-century maybe in the political world. So to push Sanders and his supporters for specifics seems natural to me--extraordinary claims (and a forthcoming political revolution is an extraordinary claim) require extraordinary evidence. Yet, any time I ever ask a Sanders supporter for specifics--how does Bernie win Florida and Ohio in the General Election, how does he get single-payer past Congress, how does he dismantle the banks, how does overturn Citizen's United--the response is "revolution, bro! Feel the Bern, man!" Yeah.... That's not gonna cut it. It's like seven years of Obama and "hope and change," instead of educating people on the inherent limitations and nature of the presidency and separation of powers, has just led people to double-down and say "we need even someone more far left--so far left they call themselves a socialist, which won't at all be problematic in American politics! That'll change Washington!" It's as naive as a Ted Cruz supporter who believes Cruz is some honest outsider.
Originally Posted By Yookeroo 'I really like Sanders a lot, I admire him, and I think he's been a great public servant. But the naiveté of his supporters and this "political revolution" is astounding.' Yes. I'm on board with a lot of his policies. But they are policies that he will never get enacted. Still, I'm glad he's in the race. He's pulling the party ever so slightly left. And he's forcing conversations we should be having (which I think was he's goal when entering the race). And let's suppose that by some miracle he does get elected president. How angry will his hardcore followers be when he can't get any of his agenda through congress?
Originally Posted By Dabob2 I think you'd have to say Clinton is still the odds-on favorite. In a country that's closely divided politically, either major party candidate is nearly guaranteed 45% of the vote or so. So Trump or Cruz definitely have a shot if either one is the nominee, scary as that is. Still - it's hard to see anyone winning who doesn't get a larger share of the Hispanic vote than Romney did; and either Cruz or Trump would probably get even a smaller percentage. Add to that Trump (and even Cruz) not even being able to take for granted 100% of the women's vote of his "gimme" 45%. Both my mom and one of my sisters are Republicans, and vote Republican reliably, but neither can stand Trump. They may not vote for the Democrat, but they might simply not vote for either. To me, Rubio and Kasich present the greatest general election challenge to Clinton. Rubio is young, seems fresher than Clinton, and will get a decent share of the Hispanic vote. IMO he's totally not ready for prime time but he'd be a tough match-up. Kasich is too, for different reasons; I don't like many of his policies but at least he's a freaking adult and comes off as reasonable. He also obviously would have an excellent chance of carrying Ohio. The traditional GOP power brokers have not been able to exert much influence in the poll results so far. But I would say that if either Rubio or Kasich does better than expected in IA and/or NH, look for them to make one more push to consolidate support around that one guy. They know numbers, demographics, and all the stuff I just outlined. They despise Cruz, and know Trump's numbers with Hispanics and women are very problematic in a general election. If Trump sweeps IA and NH they may not be able to hold back the tide, but look for one more push by them to do so, behind whichever establishment-friendlier candidate looks strongest after NH.
Originally Posted By Kar2oonMan After all the build up, Iowa doesn't have a great record at selecting the eventual nominee -- about a coin-flip's odds, according to a recent article I read in the Atlantic. Roughly the same odds of Steve Harvey announcing the actual winner of a beauty pageant.
Originally Posted By Dabob2 LOL! Iowa has actually been reasonably good in choosing the eventual Democratic nominee (including the last 3 contested races without a Democratic incumbent: Obama, Kerry, and Gore). And the Iowa caucuses sort of became "a thing" because in 1976 a relatively unknown Jimmy Carter won (though technically coming in 2nd behind "uncommitted") and of course went on to win the presidency after being "Jimmy Who?" to nearly the whole country. They've been less predictive of the GOP nominee. Only 3 times in contested races in the last 40 years.
Originally Posted By Dabob2 Just as an aside, in one of the post-IA commentaries I read this morning, some wag gave Sarah Palin my now-favorite nickname for her: "Snow Snookie." So perfect on so many levels.
Originally Posted By ecdc LOL. That is indeed perfect. Well the caucuses are over and Trump lost. That will be interesting to see play out. Hillary and Bernie fought to a draw. Pundits are all over the map on that one, but I tend to agree with those that see this as overall good for Hillary. 1) Her ground game for the long haul will be superior to Sanders, and 2) The results were a kind of inverse from 2008; Sanders won the white vote while Clinton took the rest of the white vote and most of the minority vote. That's how Obama won in '08. Sanders overwhelmingly white, largely male support will not be enough to carry him, he'll need to make major inroads in a short space of time to Latinos and African Americans.
Originally Posted By DDMAN26 I just found out Ted Cruz was born in 1970. That's four years older than me. Good lord the darkside takes a lot out of a person
Originally Posted By Goofyernmost What would really be perfect would be Hillary becoming POTUS and then having an affair with an intern! Wouldn't that be a hoot?
Originally Posted By Dabob2 my schadenfreude has been working overtime, and sometimes at cross purposes. On the one hand, I loved seeing Trump lose. Just loved it. If he'd won, he might've run the table, and the smugness would have just been unbearable. Of course, Cruz is truly the worst person in the race, so I couldn't feel too happy about it. But now, Trump might sue Cruz for the latter's shenanigans involving him telling his supporters to spread the false rumor that Carson was dropping out of the race. Which is a totally slimy thing to do, so no surprise that Cruz did it. Pass the popcorn. I hope they beat the crap out of each other.
Originally Posted By Mr X Trump is involved on what basis, that he would've won if Carson had taken a higher percentage? Seems like a fairly specious argument, or at least a very one to prove. Who's to say that Cruz's dirty trick didn't inadvertently help Trump just as much (or more)?
Originally Posted By Mr X Trump is involved on what basis, that he would've won if Carson had taken a higher percentage? If so, it seems like a fairly specious argument to me, or at least a hard one to prove. Who's to say that Cruz's dirty trick didn't inadvertently help Trump just as much (or more)?
Originally Posted By Dabob2 The thinking, and there is basis for it, is that Carson's supporters were more likely to back Cruz if they couldn't vote for Carson. Plus, you had major Cruz surrogates like Steve King flat out saying that Carson supporters should change their support to Cruz, Since Carson was out.
Originally Posted By ecdc >>Pass the popcorn. I hope they beat the crap out of each other.<< Here's to a loooooong, drawn out fight!
