Originally Posted By TomSawyer <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/01/world/middleeast/01military.html?ex=1320037200&en=9888d540b033a8e5&ei=5088&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss" target="_blank">http://www.nytimes.com/2006/11 /01/world/middleeast/01military.html?ex=1320037200&en=9888d540b033a8e5&ei=5088&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss</a> The slide is here: <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2006/11/01/world/01military_CA0ready.html" target="_blank">http://www.nytimes.com/imagepa ges/2006/11/01/world/01military_CA0ready.html</a> (snips below) A classified briefing prepared two weeks ago by the United States Central Command portrays Iraq as edging toward chaos, in a chart that the military is using as a barometer of civil conflict. A one-page slide shown at the Oct. 18 briefing provides a rare glimpse into how the military command that oversees the war is trying to track its trajectory, particularly in terms of sectarian fighting. The slide includes a color-coded bar chart that is used to illustrate an “Index of Civil Conflict.†It shows a sharp escalation in sectarian violence since the bombing of a Shiite shrine in Samarra in February, and tracks a further worsening this month despite a concerted American push to tamp down the violence in Baghdad. In fashioning the index, the military is weighing factors like the ineffectual Iraqi police and the dwindling influence of moderate religious and political figures, rather than more traditional military measures such as the enemy’s fighting strength and the control of territory. (snip) An intelligence summary at the bottom of the slide reads “urban areas experiencing ‘ethnic cleansing’ campaigns to consolidate control†and “violence at all-time high, spreading geographically.†(snip) According to the slide from the Oct. 18 briefing, the variables include “hostile rhetoric†by political and religious leaders, which can be measured by listening to sermons at mosques and to important Shiite and Sunni leaders, and the amount of influence that moderate political and religious figures have over the population. The other main variables are assassinations and other especially provocative sectarian attacks, as well as “spontaneous mass civil conflict.†A number of secondary indicators are also taken into account, including activity by militias, problems with ineffective police, the ability of Iraqi officials to govern effectively, the number of civilians who have been forced to move by sectarian violence, the willingness of Iraqi security forces to follow orders, and the degree to which the Iraqi Kurds are pressing for independence from the central government. (snip) One significant factor in the military’s decision to move the scale toward “chaos†was the expanding activity by militias. Another reason was the limitations of Iraqi government security forces, which despite years of training and equipping by the United States, are either ineffective or, in some cases, infiltrated by the very militias they are supposed to be combating. The slide notes that “ineffectual†Iraqi police forces have been a significant problem, and cites as a concern sectarian conflicts between Iraqi security forces. Other significant factors are in the political realm. The slide notes that Iraq’s political and religious leaders have lost some of their moderating influence over their constituents or adherents. Notably, the slide also cites difficulties that the new Iraqi administration has experienced in “governance.†That appears to be shorthand for the frustration felt by American military officers about the Iraqi government’s delays in bringing about a genuine political reconciliation between Shiites and Sunnis. It also appears to apply to the lack of reconstruction programs to restore essential services and the dearth of job creation efforts to give young Iraqis an alternative to joining militias, as well as the absence of firm action against militias. The slide lists other factors that are described as important but less significant. They include efforts by Iran and Syria to enable violence by militias and insurgent groups and the interest by many Kurds in achieving independence. The slide describes violence motivated by sectarian differences as having moved into a “critical†phase. The chart does note some positive developments. Specifically, it notes that “hostile rhetoric†by political and religious leaders has not increased. It also notes that Iraqi security forces are refusing less often than in the past to take orders from the central government and that there has been a drop-off in mass desertions.
Originally Posted By DouglasDubh Yes, we've heard it before. Weeks ago, we were just weeks away from a civil war.
Originally Posted By DlandDug Iraq is sliding into chaos? Based on the American media coverage, it's been in chaos for weeks, if not months. But good of the New York Times to mention this two week old military assessment on election eve, when it will, doubtless, be of greatest benefit.
Originally Posted By jonvn What is meant by "sliding into" chaos? What would be the difference between what we have now and chaos or civil war? And, really, the NYTimes is mostly read in New York and elsewhere by people who subscribe to its viewpoints. It's not really going to have much impact on a House race in Wisconsin.
Originally Posted By DouglasDubh <And we're closer now.> Sure we are. "Hey Rocky! Watch me pull a rabbit out of my hat!." "That trick never works." "This time for sure."
Originally Posted By woody There's a big difference between chaos and civil war. Iraq is troubled, but we need better analysis than this crap.
Originally Posted By crapshoot <a href="http://www.mnf-iraq.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=6836&Itemid=30" target="_blank">http://www.mnf-iraq.com/index. php?option=com_content&task=view&id=6836&Itemid=30</a> Operational Briefing, Oct. 26 Maj. Gen. William B. Caldwell IV Spokesman, Multi-National Force - Iraq "Based on intelligence, Iraqi soldiers from the 4th Brigade of the 6th Iraqi Army Division secured this area in here, known as Objective Eagle, and began to search for weapons." "During their search they found a gravel truck, as we discussed, that contained weapons located in a false bottom under some gravel. This vehicle had been used to transport weapons and ordnance in and out of this area. The Iraqi army soldiers continued their search to a nearby canal, finding nine additional stockpiles." "<They> Uncovered terrorist documents clearly showed a well-organized and structured operational hub. Among these documents was a map that led security forces to caches that included anti-aircraft guns, anti-tank and anti-personnel mines, . . . etc. The amount of ordnance that we found, we estimate, could have been used to fabricate in excess of 1,000 improvised explosive devices." During the Q&A portion: "GEN. CALDWELL: No, I don't. I'll tell you, the Iraqis are making a lot of progress forward. And there is a tremendous amount of attention that seems to go on looking at just the violence that occurs, but in fact this is a five-month-old government. They have pulled together a unity representative body that's starting to pass laws. They're having debates. They've worked the investment law piece, which is perhaps one of the most critical things they could have done to solicit and encourage outside investment into this country." GEN. CALDWELL: A: As far as what went on down south, you're right; that was a Shi'a-on-Shi'a conflict. "And when this situation flared up down near Amara, the Iraqis handled that themselves. Between the Iraqi government officials, local officials, religious/tribal figures and the military figures -- it was a situation that did not involve coalition forces. So I mean, that's a very positive step forward. " This now makes 90 Iraq army battalions in the lead. In total today, there are six of 10 Iraqi army divisions in the lead, 30 of 36 Iraqi brigades, and 90 of 112 Iraqi battalions in the lead. And we operate in support of them. All across Iraq, we continue to see an increasingly capable Iraqi security force continuing to take the lead."
Originally Posted By TomSawyer >>Iraq is troubled, but we need better analysis than this crap.<< Yes, I'm sure someone can do a better analysis than Central Command, the military command that is overseeing the operations in Iraq. Maybe Sean Hannity can let us know what's really happening over there.
