Too Early to Wonder About Harry P's impact?

Discussion in 'Walt Disney World News, Rumors and General Disc' started by See Post, Sep 22, 2007.

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    Originally Posted By DLer

    Wondering what WDW people are thinking the impact of IOA's Harry Potter will be on Orlando vactioners when that "world" opens - will WDW brass look at that situation as an opportunity or as a liability?

    Seems to me IOA and USF are still pretty much 1-day parks (with some visitors maybe hanging around at IOA for an extra day if "HP World" is interesting and clever) - that would leave 4 more days in a one-week vacation for those Orlando visitors to take in the WDW parks.

    Any thoughts?
     
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    Originally Posted By Indigo

    I think that what Disney World does so well these days is to keep people on property. With Magical Express from the airport, a decent bus service (although that needs improvement), and 3.75 full day parks (DAK is almost there) they have guests for five nights without having to worry about whether they want to go elsewhere. Throw in the typical 'day of rest' (water park, golf, etc) and Disney has the average guest for most of a week.

    So, you either have to be staying for more than six nights or be committed to visiting USF or IOA to even include them in your travel plans. Disney's firmer grip is a main reason attendance at Universal's parks has been weaker than expected the last few years (although spending per guest is up).

    The question is will Harry Potter cause more Disney destined guests to move into the committed column. It probably will. However, I think it is more likely to draw new guests to Orlando that otherwise wouldn't have made the trip. Those 100 million plus kids who've read the series and now desperately want a chance to live the story. They're going to want to visit IOA first, maybe spend two days there. On a five night vacation that only leaves 2-3 days for Disney.

    But the funny thing is, that will be new business (for both resorts). Both resorts will really have to put on the shine to make these guests repeat visitors. This is why Disney needs something with a big fan following that is tangential to the Harry Potter craze. This is probably why Disney is courting George Lucas, trying to repair the bridges that were burnt in the Eisner administration. Star Wars/Indiana Jones is the perfect counter to Harry Potter.

    Expanding the Star Wars/Indiana Jones offerings into a whole 'Lucasland' at Disney's Hollywood Studios would propel that park into direct competition with the Magic Kingdom for the must visit par for most families. The question is whether Disney will be able to get this 'answer' to Harry Potter launched in time. Disney, however, has said that they're not preparing an 'answer' for HP that they're confident the regular offerings will stand up to the competition. But remember the whole reason Disney-MGM Studios came into being was Eisner wanted to have a 'studio' park in Florida before Universal opened theirs. Disney has a history of having 'answers' ready when challenged. I don't think this time will be an exception.
     
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    Originally Posted By Disney515

    I heard a rumor that Disney was thinking about building a new park off the MK designed after the villians of Disney and on the lines on IOA with the fast rides. Did anyone else hear this?
     
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    Originally Posted By Elderp

    Old rummor and I think it was just that.
     
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    Originally Posted By Indigo

    When Tom Staggs said no new stateside parks for the foreseeable future. I have no reason to doubt him. DAK and DHS both continue to need further expansion to appeal to a wider audience for longer hours. MK still needs to get a handle on its Tomorrowland and could probably absorb another 5-10K a day by adding another e-Ticket that soaks up guests. We'll know more about EPCOT's future after the ceremony on the 1st. But expect any changes here to be subtle and occur over time. There is plenty of room for expansion, however.

    Expanding capacity this way will be cheaper than having to build the whole new infrastructure that a fifth gate would require.
     
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    Originally Posted By magnet

    Coming back to Harry Potter.... I'm pretty sure it will be a successful addition, but Universal should have started on this five years ago. The last book has already been out for a few months, and the movies are already past half-way. They really should have made an effort to capitalize on the furor that each book and movie release generates. Universal hasn't even broken ground on this yet, right?
     
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    Originally Posted By NikkiLOVESMickey

    ^^^^^It's hard to start on a park when you still haven't secured the rights from the author. Universal just secured the rights from J.K. Rowling for the park in the last few months. Apparently they were in negotiation for some time, from what I've heard.
     
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    Originally Posted By Indigo

    Universal is known for outsourcing a lot of its manufacturing. The local paper ran a story a few months ago saying that over 50 local companies had already been placed under contract to build the new land. I think that as soon as the plans for the new land are approved Universal Studios intends to go full speed ahead and open with a very short turn-around. Perhaps in conjunction with the next movie release.
     
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    Originally Posted By mstaft

    They'd better do a great job with Harry, because other than Spiderman and parts of Seuss Landing, most of IOA falls flat. I was just there for my first visit and saw poorly integrated and maintained attractions with alot of plywood cutouts posing as building fronts and theming. Port of Entry promises a highly detailed and themed Disney-like experience that the rest of the park doesn't deliver.

    I am glad I finally saw IOA. Wanted to see Spidey for years. (Yeah, it's fun, but it is no Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom.) But I will not go back.
     
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    Originally Posted By mstaft

    I forgot to mention, the robotics were so poor, I was shocked that they thought they would use this to compete with Disney.
     
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    Originally Posted By Skellington88

    Make no mistake, Harry Potter at Universal will hurt Disney even if the attractions are garbage (although they wont be rest assured).

    Disney needs to clean up their act in Orlando (maintenance, upgrades, bold new attractions) if they have any hope of competiting with the global popularity of the Harry Potter franchise.
     
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    Originally Posted By Spirit of 74

    Harry Potter has folks at Disney cringing because it really is the first legit threat to pull people off property who were afraid (or just wouldn't do so) in the past.

    We all know what a phenomemon the HP films/books/franchise are/is ... and Disney is going to need real concrete solutions to compete. marketing schemes like YoaMD won't do it, which is likely why Michael Mendenhall has taken a demotion to leave TWDC for HP.

    The parks that stand to be hurt the most by HP are the MK because it is old and stale and never adds anything of substance ... and the Disney-MGM Studios ... but it will hurt.

    And what scares Disney the most is when the formerly afraid to leave property people see there's a whole new world out there filled with all sorts of hotel, dining and shopping options that maybe they won't be so quick to return to the Mouse.

    Don't underestimate this one because if Disney doesn't have the right strategy to compete (and that means substantial investment) they're in for a world of wizardly hurt.
     
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    Originally Posted By mstaft

    I say bring on the competition.- we will all win.
     
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    Originally Posted By Mickeymouseclub

    Just a quick poll to see if this is going to change any Lpers plans... For my family we are seriously considering cancelling the 2008 Disney cruise in California to save and transport the family in 2009 to Harry potter Land. Of course my relatives are big time HP fans and the nephews ages are 8 and 11.Disney pirates cannot compete with HP in 2009. We are also big Disney fans but HP will be something new.
     
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    Originally Posted By SteamboatPhillie

    I just want to stick my opinion into something I have little actual knowledge of.

    Somebody already mentioned that HP has completed it's book run and only has two movies left.

    Keep in mind though, Star Wars was able to maintain a huge, and more importantly, devoted fan base for years off of just three movies, action figures, and a Christmas special.

    Harry Potter has been a media juggernaut beyond what Star Wars had at its disposal during its first years. Books, movies, video games, toys, Legos, soundtracks, etc.

    Now, this could spell blowback from the masses and a large group of fans turning away due to oversaturation.

    But without new books coming out the amount of merchandise and media attention will dwindle, with pronounced spikes when the two final movies each come out. I don't see a series of original video games and various comic book series/mini-series the way Star Wars does.

    So I don't think HP will run fans away at any point, and the release of the park land will definitely be met with joy from most fans.

    The question of whether the rides will be good or land immersive the way Disney tries to be is inconsequential in the short-term. I can safely predict that the land's opening will be a minor media event, and it will be packed for the ensuing weeks/months. Especially if the land is supposed to open to tie in with a movie release.

    It will take a while, perhaps a year or two, for word to get out that the land is a disappointment (if it is), in which case HP's popularity will be a non-factor in IOA's overall park attendance, sales, etc.

    Will an HP land be a threat to WDW? I think only in a limited sense. There may be a number of people planning a trip to WDW that instead steer over to IOA, but the real question is the return value of IOA. If a guest can do and see everything within a two or three day trip, there's one big reason to return at a later date gone. The only other major reason would be a true appreciation of the rides or attractions and an interest in seeing them again.

    If PotC was simply a nice ride I wouldn't care too much about going to DL every year. But I love the ride, no matter how many times I go on it or listen to the ride-through's soundtrack on my iPod. That's why I can go on it two or three times a year.

    I'm a big fan of Harry Potter, but I'm also a big fan of Marvel comics, and there wasn't much at the Marvel IOA that has me clamoring to return to it someday. If the Harry Potter land is similary a bit of a let-down, that will affect the long-term threat the park would pose.

    My guess is Universal is more interested in making money off of HP, rather than creating a vacation spot for families to return to multiple times. Disney didn't create DL simply as a money-making scheme, he had a legitimate interest in it being a critical success with the park's patrons. I question if Universal is as concerned.
     
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    Originally Posted By Sport Goofy

    << I say bring on the competition.- we will all win. >>

    I would have to argue that all competition in Orlando has done is created a vacation environment that is increasingly ruled by marketing moreso than imagination. All you can expect from increased competition is that more dollars will be allocated to market all of these theme park "brands" instead of dollars being allocated for actual park operations. Remember the days in Orlando when WDW did essentially zero advertising, dumped every last cent into park and resort operations instead of unfettered expansion, and every attraction didn't require a major media tie-in? Those were the days before competition.
     
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    Originally Posted By Spirit of 74

    <<My guess is Universal is more interested in making money off of HP, rather than creating a vacation spot for families to return to multiple times. Disney didn't create DL simply as a money-making scheme, he had a legitimate interest in it being a critical success with the park's patrons. I question if Universal is as concerned.>>

    I think you made some interesting and, possibly, valid points in your post except for the above.

    Why Walt Disney created DL is immaterial today to any discussion of how Disney and/or Universal operate.

    Walt Disney has been dead for over four decades, longer than I've walked the earth. And Walt loved making money, there seems to be this misguided theory tossed around in fan circles that he did what he did just because he was a visionary (which he was) and that money was just a tool he used to make magic (which isn't the case).

    But to move things back to the 21st century, Universal isn't investing the amount of $$$ they are in HP because they want folks to just drop by and check it out once.

    They didn't build IOA, CityWalk and three fantastic resorts because they're just willing to take Mouse Scraps.

    And, frankly, if you look at Disney's reinvestment in its own parks over the past decade you might wonder if Disney is concerned about anything more than the bottom line.
     
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    Originally Posted By Spirit of 74

    <<Remember the days in Orlando when WDW did essentially zero advertising, dumped every last cent into park and resort operations instead of unfettered expansion, and every attraction didn't require a major media tie-in?>>

    Ah ... yeah ... some of us think of those as the good, old days.
     
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    Originally Posted By pitapan16

    I say bring on the competition.- we will all win."

    -Here, here. I like competition. And this sounds like some pretty "harry."
     
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    Originally Posted By dennis-in-ct

    << but HP will be something new. >>

    EXACTLY ... and I will make a visit too. Not only will POTTER be new, but also it will get me EXCITED for a visit.

    I don't know if Mid Way mania is going to get me excited - I can see the RIVERS OF LIGHT at Animal Kingdom doing the trick!

    I look forward to seeing something creative - like EVEREST. Something that makes a statement - something unique that only DISNEY can do.


    For the last several years, I have been feeling like I am close to actually booking a trip and on-property stay with Universal. Now, with the new POTTER investment, it just might be a reality. I mean, what is WDW offering? What will be new for WDW at the time of POTTER?
     

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