Originally Posted By Mr X since President Obama took office. DOW Jan 20, 2009 7949.09 DOW July 30, 2009 9154.46 To put it another way...up more than 15%. Thanks, President Obama! You've saved us all (couldn't tell from the bloody approval ratings though!).
Originally Posted By SpokkerJones Unemployment is still high and that can probably explain a lot of the approval ratings situation. The same thing happened to Reagan (<a href="http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2009/04/21/opinion/kohut.jpg" target="_blank">http://graphics8.nytimes.com/i...ohut.jpg</a>). The unemployment rate lags behind the economy, so even as the economy improves it takes a while for companies to start hiring again.
Originally Posted By Mr X Yup...the markets are forward indicators (usually). Here's hoping it continues!
Originally Posted By SpokkerJones Of course. People are hurting right now and facing cuts in all facets of life, from cuts to social services, hours at work, bus service cuts and school aid, to name a few. To me, is getting tax revenues up again. Get people spending again. Then maybe we can undo some of the drastic measures that are being taken to balance budgets.
Originally Posted By mawnck According to our foamer pal the Market Ticker guy, the jump today was entirely due to computerized trading programs getting some temporary bad data on a single economic indicator. His theory checks out in terms of the timing, and there seems to be no other rational reason for today's increase. The market has lost its mind. I mean, really absolutely off its biscuit. There is NO financial justification for the recent run-up, and it is not being reflected in the financial affairs of the general population. Whether the market continues doing what it's doing is really only relevant to day traders. And Goldman Sachs' IT department.
Originally Posted By ecdc Yes but, bizarrely enough, perception often morphs into reality in the financial markets. Recessions are as much about measurable factors as they are mental perception. If people see their 401K start to recover a bit, then maybe they'll start to spend more. Perhaps the engine will sputter back to life. And, of course, the market could just plunge again tomorrow. It's been about as stable as Iran lately.
Originally Posted By SuperDry <<< There is NO financial justification for the recent run-up >>> What about recent earnings reports?
Originally Posted By Sport Goofy << What about recent earnings reports? >> What's been good about those? Yes, there have been reports that are "above expectations," but expectations have been lowered so much that it isn't necessarily hard to beat them. Profits and revenues are pretty much down across the board. Until revenues start to grow again, it's hard to see how there's any value in stocks.
Originally Posted By wahooskipper I don't give Presidents a lot of blame when the dow falls nor do I give them a lot of credit when the dow rises. Obama has taken steps to prevent things from getting worse...many of those steps were initiated under Bush and continued by Obama. What we don't know yet (and may not for a couple of decades) is the long term effects of the decisions and policies of the last 6 months. But, I will admit that I was happy to see my 401k arrive on my house without mold on it this quarter.
Originally Posted By HRM From what I can tell, most of the positive recent earnings are due to cutting costs, (including layoffs), more than increased spending. Businesses can only reduce costs up to a point, and then go out of business. Layoffs and furloughs are still happening, which can only result in continued reduced spending. Until this turns around, everything will remain very unstable. With the big drop that occured in the past couple of years, you just have to wonder about the stability and accuracy of the markets.
Originally Posted By SuperDry <<< << What about recent earnings reports? >> What's been good about those? >>> Well, you answer your own question: <<< Yes, there have been reports that are "above expectations," >>> Then you go on to say: <<< but expectations have been lowered so much that it isn't necessarily hard to beat them. >>> Another way to state that is that stock prices have been lowered so much that it isn't necessarily hard to make them rise, which again answers your question. Whether the rationale is valid or not, an overreaction or not, the market's collective notion of forward-looking expectations is what sets the price for stocks. If those expectations were too low, then when the evidence comes in to show that, then prices rise.
Originally Posted By mawnck ... or someone is fixing the "forward-looking expectations" to keep the rally going. ;-) Expectations smexpectations. The earnings reports speak for themselves. There's no justification for the stock prices to be rising.
Originally Posted By SuperDry <<< The earnings reports speak for themselves. There's no justification for the stock prices to be rising. >>> How do you say those two things in the same thought? If the earnings reports speak for themselves, and earnings were above expectations, why is there no justification for rising stock prices?
Originally Posted By SuperDry <<< Expectations don't produce earnings. >>> No, they don't. But expectations do produce current share prices. So, when earnings come in above expectations, the share prices rise.
Originally Posted By Mr X Good point, SD. (I wonder why this "optimistic" topic has sunk so quickly to the depths of the LP pond...whenever I was pessimistic over the past couple of years, people seemed to direct their anger at me for speaking my mind about the state of things and generally call me an idiot for saying so!!??)
Originally Posted By FerretAfros This isn't related to the thread at all, but I was trying to find a place that Mr X would read, and this seems like a good spot. Just letting Mr X know that I saw his Blue Devils win DCI World Finals again tonight. That makes my grand total of DCI Finals I've been to 2, and the total that BD have won is also 2. I didn't think they had the most difficult show (it could very well have been the easiest one of the night), but it was by far the cleanest performed. And for those of you who have no idea what I just said, I'll let you get back to your regularly scheduled thread now...
Originally Posted By Mr X Glad you had a good time, wish I could've been there. Easy, hard, I don't care as long as it's FIRST.
Originally Posted By Mr X In case anyone is wondering what the heck we're talking about, here's a sample of the Blue Devils (couldn't find this year, but this one's another championship effort from a few years ago)... <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=09i636FIfhM" target="_blank">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...636FIfhM</a> <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wPSmoBNe0GQ&feature=related" target="_blank">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...=related</a> Okay, now back to the Obama recovery, already in progress.
