Originally Posted By DAR I just got back from my trip to Orlando. During that time we went spent some time at Universal and Magic Kingdom. Both places were as packed as I've ever seen them. Yes I know it's the biggest travel time of the year. But still I was astounded and pleased especially in the case of MK to be so filled up. Look I know people are hurting I won't pooh pooh that. But I do believe that if people want do something like go on vacation, they'll find a way to do it.
Originally Posted By vbdad55 There are enough people with money to fill the parks at that time of year _ ( as well as a lot of these trips were booked 12 months ago) - In Chicago the NYE bashes @ Four Seasons and Trump Tower and other high end locations were sold out - other places like Marriott canceled theirs due to so many cancellations the rich will always have money - it's all the rest of us great unwashed that have issues today the true signs will show in January
Originally Posted By Jim in Merced CA We were stunned at the crowds at Disneyland during Veteran's Day weekend. We actually naively thought that it would have been a bit less crowded. Wrong we were. And disappointed to have to try slog our way through a crowded Disneyland, a jam-packed Downtown Disney, and a crowded but barren of attractions DCA -- drained Paradise Pier lagoon. (it looked awful) The only place that looked like it was suffering from the economy was Anaheim Garden Walk. I guess everyone who was there must be rich.
Originally Posted By vbdad55 ^^^^^^^^^^ what % do you think were AP holders ? It is a quite different crowd than at WDW or other places. What is the cost per visit with an AP? Don't have to be rich - that doesn't make the economy robust...
Originally Posted By RoadTrip Many people have not been directly impacted by the current recession. Less than 50% of U.S. households hold stocks or bonds in any form (stock, mutual funds, 401K's, etc.). Even people holding equities have not lost anything unless they've decided to lock in their losses by selling. (Obviously retired people who were counting on selling stock to provide current income ARE affected.) The housing collapse has not directly impacted people unless they’ve needed to sell their home or were up to their neck in Equity Loans. The job market is crap for those out of work, but the great majority of those who want to work are still working. So I don't think it is just the rich. There are many who have not been greatly impacted by the current economy at this point in time. Well, other than by fear. And it is the rampant fear that is making this thing worse than it would have to be. The more fear takes hold the more devastating the recession/depression will be.
Originally Posted By Sport Goofy << The housing collapse has not directly impacted people unless they’ve needed to sell their home or were up to their neck in Equity Loans. >> If your neighbor is in forecloure, it affects you. If your community isn't collecting the property taxes on foreclosed homes that it needs to support fire, police, and other services then it affects you. It also affects your ability to move upwardly in the job market, since most upward movements come from changing jobs. If you are in a market where you can't sell your home, then you are not likely to seek out a new job that requires a move, even if the pay and benefits are better. I have a bunch of co-workers right now who have been living apart from their families for over a year because they can't sell their home in an old location when they took a new position for better pay and benefits. All that extra salary is now being spent on plane tickets home to see the wife and kids at the house that cannot sell. << The job market is crap for those out of work, but the great majority of those who want to work are still working. >> Working for reduced wages, minimal benefits, no pension plans, etc. We haven't seen substantial wage growth in a decade now, and yet people are somehow supposed to be able to afford to live with the price of housing, commodities, and everything else gaining each year?
Originally Posted By RoadTrip <<If your neighbor is in forecloure, it affects you. If your community isn't collecting the property taxes on foreclosed homes that it needs to support fire, police, and other services then it affects you.>> Yes. IF you live in one of those locations. The majority of Americans do not. Actually, the tanking income and sales tax revenues is hurting cities and states far more than decreased property taxes. <<It also affects your ability to move upwardly in the job market, since most upward movements come from changing jobs. If you are in a market where you can't sell your home, then you are not likely to seek out a new job that requires a move, even if the pay and benefits are better.>> That makes them worse off than they might have been. Not worse off than they were. <<I have a bunch of co-workers right now who have been living apart from their families for over a year because they can't sell their home in an old location when they took a new position for better pay and benefits. All that extra salary is now being spent on plane tickets home to see the wife and kids at the house that cannot sell.>> Again, they are worse off than they might have been; not worse off than they were. <<Working for reduced wages, minimal benefits, no pension plans, etc. We haven't seen substantial wage growth in a decade now, and yet people are somehow supposed to be able to afford to live with the price of housing, commodities, and everything else gaining each year?>> On that front people are now BETTER off than they've been in the last several years. Housing costs are down; rents will decrease as people find they can buy for less than what they currently pay for rent. Yes; there are impacts. I absolutely am not denying that. I was just responding to vbdad's statement that it is rich people driving Disney's attendance. My assertion was that in spite of what's happening, many middle income people have not (yet) been significantly impacted.
Originally Posted By vbdad55 Everyone affected by: price of gasoline when it went nuts prices of all goods rose when gas prices up grocery price increases housing issue hitting all but those with houses paid for if renting - likely faced increases also or worse if landlord had financing issues if putting kids thru college - tuition increases and cost of books brutal cost of medical care-prescriptions even if one has coverage as 'out of pocket' deducatibles on a the fact escalator up ( I can tell you revenue's are down big time at the hospital my wife works at - people postponing all they can - hospital just had it's first layoffs ever ) - and this is an area where a huge % of the population IS insured.
Originally Posted By vbdad55 <Yes; there are impacts. I absolutely am not denying that. I was just responding to vbdad's statement that it is rich people driving Disney's attendance. My assertion was that in spite of what's happening, many middle income people have not (yet) been significantly impacted. < I still believe you are dead wrong on this one so we will agree to disagree. My message however was that those traveling to WDW at the holidays are fairly well off -I still believe that tobe mostly true- I do not believe it is Joe 6 pack there in one of the most expensive times - Don't think that is a stretch. I quoted what was on the news here inChicago - Four Seasons - Trump tower parties sold out- many other 'middle class' hotels cancelled their parties.Are you telling me Joe Average was staying at the four seasons while the Pritzger's scheduled their time at the Holiday Inn ? I don't think so. In times like this the rich get richer - buying up those properties you recognize as maybe being underpriced now. I have a friend who owns amulti state mortgage house - they are writing deals on tons of houses in Vegas for instance - but they are not being bought by the newlyweds- they are being bought by very wealthy investors - US and foreign. the number of foreclosures in my area is staggering - yes many are McMansion's but that does not change the impact on all around them - retail / schools / restaurants etc. I believe somehow you are living ina very narrow pocket and just haven't seen the impact of what is going on...I'm happy for you, but this is very very widespread -- it is not a California orFlorida phenomenon - in fact some of the highest foreclosure rates are centered in Indiana/Ohio/Michigan etc. those people did not see the coastal run ups in value either.
Originally Posted By RoadTrip Yes, Illinois is #9 in the nation; Indiana is #10. But that STILL IMPACTS relatively few households. In Illinois 1.25% of households are in foreclosure; in Indiana 1.027% of households are in foreclosure. Source: <a href="http://realestate.msn.com/article.aspx?cp-documentid=13107814" target="_blank">http://realestate.msn.com/arti...13107814</a> Yes, I realize a foreclosed property impacts everyone on the block, so the impact is greater than the foreclosure rate. But that still leaves many people in areas where foreclosure is not a problem. As for increasing college costs, health costs, etc -- that is a REAL PROBLEM. But that was with us before the recession and will still be there long after the recession has ended. There is nothing different there. Vacations are clearly down, and Joe Six Pack does not stay at the Four Seasons. Of course WDW is NOT the Four Seasons, and in fact has more Joe 6 Pack rooms on property than any other type of accommodation.
Originally Posted By RoadTrip It's not just me... <<With unemployment figures beginning to resemble a mushroom cloud and the Fed running out of card tricks, I told a friend we were going to spend the weekend at my house making hard choices — scrutinizing every expense, eliminating spending where we could and downsizing at every turn. “Really,” he said. “What has changed at your house?” Well, nothing really — I might toil in a threatened industry, but my ID card still works when I go to the office and my wife is prospering in a job she loves. But like everyone else, I am making my way through a data cloud that is crackling with panic.>> <<“When everyone is talking about recession, we all feel like something has to change, even if nothing has changed for us,” said Dan Ariely, author of “Predictably Irrational,” a book that explains why people do things that defy explanation. “The media messages that are repeating doom and gloom affect every one, not just people who really have trouble and should make changes, but people who are fine. That has a devastating effect on the economy.” With unemployment, auto sales, home foreclosures and consumer confidence all benchmarking historic levels of distress, news outlets are hardly making it up. But the machinery of the economy began to freeze in place far more quickly than it has in the past, in part because so much scary data is circulating so much faster than it used to. This recession got deeper faster because we knew more bad stuff quickly.>> Source: <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/08/business/media/08carr.html" target="_blank">http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12...arr.html</a>
Originally Posted By mawnck >>With unemployment, auto sales, home foreclosures and consumer confidence all benchmarking historic levels of distress, news outlets are hardly making it up. But the machinery of the economy began to freeze in place far more quickly than it has in the past, in part because so much scary data is circulating so much faster than it used to. This recession got deeper faster because we knew more bad stuff quickly.<< Yeah. And?
Originally Posted By RoadTrip And... it is like I've said for months now... the gloom and doomers are making things worse than they would have been otherwise. Would it be bad anyway? Certainly. Would it be as bad as it is now and will be next year? I truly doubt it.
Originally Posted By fkurucz <<what % do you think were AP holders ? It is a quite different crowd than at WDW or other places. What is the cost per visit with an AP? Don't have to be rich - that doesn't make the economy robust...>> Correct. The fact that DLR is offering interest free EZ payment plans for SoCal APs indicates that they are very worried about losing that key demographic.
Originally Posted By fkurucz <<the gloom and doomers are making things worse than they would have been otherwise.>> You keep saying thie. Yet the MSM for the past few years has been saying that everything was hunky dory, that the American "consumer" was resilient, etc. It wasn't until the tsunami of foreclosures and layoffs became too evident to spin away that the media finally admitted that something was rotten in Denmark.
Originally Posted By Sport Goofy << Yes. IF you live in one of those locations. The majority of Americans do not. >> I'm not aware of any location where foreclosures are not up substantially year over year. The Case-Shiller housing index shows year over year declines in home prices in every major market nationwide. << That makes them worse off than they might have been. Not worse off than they were. >> So, you think this country can survive with people not making any headway in wages and benefits through the course of their lifetime? Will you be satisfied with your children earning the same wage 20 years from now that they are earning today? That's what you are saying. << On that front people are now BETTER off than they've been in the last several years. Housing costs are down; rents will decrease as people find they can buy for less than what they currently pay for rent. >> On average, home prices are still about 35-50% higher today than they were in 2000. Wages aren't even up 20% during the same period. Let's not even talk about rent. Since I move about once a year, I'm pretty well versed on renting. I'm moving into a housing area where I lived previously 6 years ago. In six years, the rent on a 2-3 bedroom apartment has increased approximately 50% -- mostly based on the increased cost of real estate in general. Landlords are loathe to charge rents that don't cover the cost of their mortgage payments.
Originally Posted By mawnck >>And... it is like I've said for months now... the gloom and doomers are making things worse than they would have been otherwise. Would it be bad anyway? Certainly. Would it be as bad as it is now and will be next year? I truly doubt it.<< It IS as bad as it is now. The point you're making here is moot. You're only arguing about the causes, and the causes don't matter unless you're personally in a position to fix them. It's the *effects* we must prepare for, and we have a pretty good idea what those are going to be. Hence the gloom and doom.
Originally Posted By RoadTrip <<It's the *effects* we must prepare for, and we have a pretty good idea what those are going to be. Hence the gloom and doom.>> But will those effects be better or worse if we look at the glass as half full or half empty. I have NEVER found in 56 years of life that half empty works better.
Originally Posted By mawnck >>But will those effects be better or worse if we look at the glass as half full or half empty. I have NEVER found in 56 years of life that half empty works better.<< The effects are external. Our mindset doesn't change them. I'm pretty sure I'll be much happier if I prepare, as much as I am able, for what appears to be coming. If I over-prepare, then hooray ... extra Spam and live ammo for the neighborhood kids. (Kidding, kidding.) Having an earthquake kit handy doesn't mean I'm hoping for an earthquake, or even expecting one before I pick up and move to more stable ground. But the science says the big one's going to happen sooner or later. Hence the earthquake kit. I'm not going to have no extra food or water in the house because the scientists are just a bunch of doom and gloomers and the earthquake "probably won't be as bad as all that."
Originally Posted By RoadTrip I would certainly never say that you should not prepare for what might happen. I just think you should prudently prepare while still remaining optimistic in your expectations about what will happen. For example... while some were laying in a lifetime supply of SPAM and water prior to Y2K, I made sure I had a few hundred dollars cash and enough groceries to last 5 days. I figured that something could conceivably happen, but I also knew that whatever happened would probably be resolved in a short period of time. Boy... those were the good old days. The days when computer guys like me could make whatever the heck we wanted to make. After all, we were saving the world... Of course our gloom and doom projections about what MIGHT happen had absolutely nothing whatsoever to do with the fact that we could make a boat-load of money if everyone was scared. Been there, done that. And the American public is being played for a sucker again!
