10/23 Jim Hill: Ops side of DLR

Originally Posted By ChiMike

<a href="http://jimhillmedia.com/blogs/jim_hill/archive/2006/10/23/6376.aspx" target="_blank">http://jimhillmedia.com/blogs/
jim_hill/archive/2006/10/23/6376.aspx</a>

I'm not one to be negative about what Jim writes but this article was really convoluted. At times the wording of the "ops guy" seemed very similiar to Jim's own writing style.

>>As the Imagineers once again try to strike just the right balance between new attractions & shows that will actually get paying customers to come through the turnstiles and changes that can realistically be made to that theme park that are fiscally & operationally sound.<<

i.e. power players trying to push their entertainment and other agendas onto real plans that would transform DCA. Can't have plans with those pesky big-ticket attractions without everybodys pet-projects included as well.

>>Truth be told, that's one of the main stumbling blocks to changing Disneyland's Tom Sawyer Island into a "Pirates of the Caribbean" -themed play area. That -- strictly from an operational point of view -- this proposed $28 million redo doesn't make much sense.<<

Shocking.

>>"You have to understand that Tom Sawyer Island is only reachable by raft. <<

Doesn't sound like something an insider would need to tell Jim.

>>Given all of the PR problems that they're anticipating having next summer with the opening of Disneyland's new "Finding Nemo Submarine Voyage" ride.<<

O.K. maybe, I guess I just still have enough faith in humanity that tells me that enough people will understand that there will be long lines on a brand new attraction, containing some of the most popular contemporary cartoon characters around, premering in the middle of the summer season. Sure there will be some grumbling. But is the Disney guest population so spoiled now that a long line is now a PR problem?

For an attraction that had long lines when it closed, when it was deemed dated and stale, how can anyone not expect even worse lines?

>>But what won't be mentioned in any of this "Finding Nemo Submarine Voyage" advertising is that only one third of the guests who buys admission to Disneyland will still actually be able to experience this ride on busy days.<<

I hate, hate this line of thinking.

Sure the numbers balance out that way. But that's a far cry from implying that people will be turned away from riding. Prevented. And they will be complaining at City Hall.

The fact is that every person who is willing to join the queue will ride. Any person who is willing to wait will ride.

>>They haven't even finished building the ride yet. But we've already got managers talking about reinstating 'Magical Mornings' at the park and holding after-hours parties in order to accommodate the crowds. <<

They already have Early Entry? Wouldn't an ops guy know this? So what's the problem? That Early Entry might be restricted to resort guests only? Even if it's not, it's not like Early Entry is a whole new dynamic that will throw operations into a tizzy.

 

Originally Posted By danyoung

>At times the wording of the "ops guy" seemed very similiar to Jim's own writing style.<

You've noticed that too? I stopped reading Jim about a year ago, as the uniformity of the writing style, whether we were reading his comments or a quoted source, just totally robbed him of all credibility, IMO.

>But that's a far cry from implying that people will be turned away from riding. Prevented.<

There's another thread that talks about this in more detail. But yes, it's totally stupid to think of the 2/3 of the daily attendance that won't be able to ride. You might just as well say that 7/8 of the daily population won't be able to ride Dumbo, so that's a huge problem. The length of the the queue will determine the load. Early popularity might run this queue out to 2 or maybe even 3 hours, but that will soon diminish and go back to the 60-90 minutes that it used to be on a busy day.

 

Originally Posted By Skellington88

It can't be worse than the wait times for Rocket Rods, Star Tours, and Indiana Jones when they opened.

 

Originally Posted By danyoung

The difference is all of those rides had a much higher rider capacity than the Subs will have.

 

Originally Posted By Jim in Merced CA

Does anyone else start to feel claustrophobic when thinking about crawling into the submarines?

I do...

 

Originally Posted By DlandJB

Reminds me of an old Woody Allen line about a restaurant..."Nobody goes there anymore...it is always too crowded."

He also had a similar line..."Besides, the food is terrible -- and such small portions!"

 

Originally Posted By ChiMike

^ Exactly Dland JB!

>>Does anyone else start to feel claustrophobic when thinking about crawling into the submarines?<<

No, that doesn't bother me, but I do worry about the germs. The CM crew better stock up on their Vitamin C drops.

 

Originally Posted By ChiMike

>>The difference is all of those rides had a much higher rider capacity than the Subs will have.<<

But I do still think that guests will self-regulate the line. For the first days, sure expect out of control lines (if there are no blackouts). As you make clear Dan, even Indy had huge lines at look at it's monster capacity.

But, after the first couple weeks I do think guests' own trade-off preferences will keep the line in check. Whether it be out of towner staying for 4 days or a local AP, I think people are savvy enough to avoid a 3 hour line and try again.

 

Originally Posted By gadzuux

When should they "try again"? Like it's going to be better the next day, or the day after that?

>> But yes, it's totally stupid to think of the 2/3 of the daily attendance that won't be able to ride. <<

I disagree. If the attraction can only accomodate 18k guests per day, it's not "totally stupid" to realize that the other 36k won't be able to ride.

>> You might just as well say that 7/8 of the daily population won't be able to ride Dumbo <<

The demand for dumbo is also much less.


I don't know why this is tripping people up. They seek to minimize and pish-tosh the issue away. When disney opens the new 'nemo-subs' they will accompany it with a large media campaign, designed to draw guests to the park to visit the new ride. Disney knows full well that only a small percentage of the day's guests can be accomodated. So plenty of people will come, will see a three hour line (or more), and be unwilling to stand for that long.

So tough luck for them, huh? Just shrug it off and chalk it up.

The difference we're seeing here is looking at it from an individual standpoint versus a group standpoint. Yes, I agree - if an individual chooses to enter the line, chances are strong that they will be admitted (eventually) onto the attraction.

But that doesn't change the other side of the equation, which is that tens of thousands of people will arrive at the park every day, and most will have seen the marketing for 'nemo' and want to ride. Most can't. That's not their fault for not being foolhardy enough to brave a three hour + line.

This is disney creating an 'attractive nuisance'. A new whiz-bang attraction that can only be attended by one third to one quarter of the park's daily attendance.

So go ahead and wave this off as not being a significant issue. But it doesn't make the problem go away.

 

Originally Posted By DouglasDubh

<Reminds me of an old Woody Allen line about a restaurant..."Nobody goes there anymore...it is always too crowded.">

I always thought that was a Yogi Berra line.

 

Originally Posted By ChiMike

>>When should they "try again"? Like it's going to be better the next day, or the day after that?<<

How about during the fireworks, how about the next time they come and go right at rope drop. Why not in a few weeks. Why not at the next early entry.

On it's way to a 2 or 3 hr line, at some point in the day the line is 20 mins. At some point in the day the line is 40 mins. So make a point to get in the line then.

Or, I know it's crazy, but how about waiting what ever the time is.

Life is about choices.

>>I disagree. If the attraction can only accomodate 18k guests per day, it's not "totally stupid" to realize that the other 36k won't be able to ride.<<

Again, 36 WILL (not won't) be able to ride if they make the decision to. If they are willing to wait.

ANY SINGLE GUEST, regardless if it's a Saturday in July or a Wednesday in January, is allowed to get in line and thus ride the attraction if they do so before the park closes.

Will there be 36K on that day who won't ride? YES. But it will all be by their own choice.

By their own personal decision and patience level.

>>So tough luck for them, huh? Just shrug it off and chalk it up.<<

YES. Just like it's tough luck for all those poor wittle children who can't get a nice view of F!. It's not the wittle childrens fault they can't sit still for 3 hrs to reserve a seat.

Like It's tough luck for those who can't eat at club 33 or those who can't afford to stay on property.

No one ever claimed going to a theme park, let alone a world class Disney theme park was fair.

>>So go ahead and wave this off as not being a significant issue. But it doesn't make the problem go away.<<

Any problem will be far over-shadowed by the rides popularity and contribution to DL's overall capacity and attraction roster.

 

Originally Posted By DlandJB

I always thought that was a Yogi Berra line.
>>>>

yes! Sorry -- the first one is Yogi and the second one is Woody. My bad. Still funny.

 

Originally Posted By DigitalDisney

2/3 of the people not being able to ride assumes 100% of the people actually want to ride.

And ChiMike is absolutely correct. It's ultimately all about choices that the guest makes. You need to prioritize your visit to DL (or any park) and determine what you want to see. Obviously, you go to the big attractions before you see the smaller ones. Going to Nemo or some other major attraction at rope drop definitely helps too.

On a related note, what percentage of guests get to see every single attraction, show, parade, and fireworks show that they want to see on a visit to DLR? I bet that's an even smaller percentage than the amount that get to visit Nemo.

 

Originally Posted By gadzuux

>> Again, 36 WILL (not won't) be able to ride if they make the decision to. If they are willing to wait. <<

Not correct. 36K will NOT be able to ride - even if they make the decision to. It has nothing to do with being willing to wait. The attraction can only handle 18K (optimal) during a fifteen hour day.

Why aren't you getting this?


>> And ChiMike is absolutely correct. <<

Well, no he's not. See above.


>> It's ultimately all about choices that the guest makes. <<

It's foreseeable that the majority of guests would like to see the newest biggest ride. But unfortunately, most can't - the attraction simply cannot handle the demand. Most will not be agreeable to standing in a three hour line. Some people make it seem like this is an unreasonable position to take. I disagree.

 

Originally Posted By ChiMike

>>Not correct. 36K will NOT be able to ride - even if they make the decision to. It has nothing to do with being willing to wait. The attraction can only handle 18K (optimal) during a fifteen hour day.

Why aren't you getting this?<<

I completely understand the reality of the situation.

Anybody who ends up being apart of the 36K who didn't ride the attraction had the choice to NOT BE apart of the 36K.

Anybody who wants to ride Nemo, will ride NEMO. What's great about that is that the people who want to ride it the most will be the ones most willing to wait for it.

>>It's foreseeable that the majority of guests would like to see the newest biggest ride. But unfortunately, most can't - the attraction simply cannot handle the demand.<<

Give me a break. First it's not going to have 3 hr lines for months and months. Second, anyone whose time at DL is limited will be able to ride the attraction if they CHOOSE to. Anyone with more flexible time will return under better circumstances.

Furthermore, having a new attraction have a long line is great for Disney. It causes people to feel they need to come back soon to partake in other things that they weren't able to get to b/c of the long line and/or it causes people to feel the need to come back and try again.

Now maybe you or others would say, "screw this, I'm not coming back", but simply from history, my perceived outcome is more likely.

>>Most will not be agreeable to standing in a three hour line. <<

Then it's their loss. Sooner or later they will get in line depending on what their wait threshold is. It's not a God given right to ride an amusement park ride.

>>Some people make it seem like this is an unreasonable position to take. I disagree.<<

I would be one of those people. And Gadzuux I agree with about 99% of what you usually say, it's just this time around I think your doom & gloom forecasts aren't in line with the past or what current guests are capable of.

I mean if people are willing to endure waits that I see on Saturdays for some things, for parades, for old rides, I can't see people refusing to do so in Nemo's case. If there is a 3hr line, then there are 3hrs worth of people who disagree with you.

 

Originally Posted By pitapan16

If Disneyland would normally have 50000 people come in on a normal summer Sunday, and 10,000 extra came just becaue of the Subs, I would think the hardcore 10,000 would be the ones in line. The others who would have come anyways like myself would love to ride, but without a fastpass or first thing in the morning ride, will skip it for other attractions. Capacity is always an issue, but it's not the end of the world with the Subs. Disneyland is too well-rounded. Space, Splash, Indy, Pirates, Mansion, Thunder exc...

 

Originally Posted By pitapan16

Oh and about that Jim Hill article, I can hardly imagine how anyone would be against great street kennetics like street vehicles for DCA in a transportation hub bleeding out to all the other lands. That just sounds awesome. Especially the trolley to the Pier.

 

Originally Posted By gadzuux

>> Anybody who wants to ride Nemo, will ride NEMO. <<

I disagree. 18,000 people per day (with luck) will be able to ride nemo, the rest won't. There's just no swerving around this fact.

>> What's great about that is that the people who want to ride it the most will be the ones most willing to wait for it. <<

Great? The people who will ride are the ones that want the most AND have the patience and stamina and time necessary to make it through the line. BTW, this eliminates almost all children under the age of ten or so - nemo's target audience.


>> First it's not going to have 3 hr lines for months and months. <<

I'm guessing it will. We'll see for sure next summer.


>> Furthermore, having a new attraction have a long line is great for Disney. <<

I disagree with this too. In general terms, perhaps it could have an upside. In this particular case, the long lines will be due to an inherent design flaw within the attraction itself - not just it's popularity.


>> I think your doom & gloom forecasts aren't in line with the past or what current guests are capable of. <<

Okay. I'm making educated guesses about what will happen in the future. So are you. We'll see. But yeah - I'm predicting doom and gloom - specifically, I'm predicting massive crowd control problems, large amounts of irate guests, and and unusual amount of hard feelings and bad PR for disney. And not just for the first few weeks or months - but essentially for the life of the attraction. Demand will always far outstrip available capacity in a way that disney has never had to contend with before.

 

Originally Posted By jomach08

Based on the policy of letting everyone who is in line at closing ride, then, baring any breakdowns, everyone who is willing to wait in line(as long as it might get), will be able to ride.

 

Originally Posted By avromark

Maybe they should only fast pass tickets, and bar those on AP's from using fast pass