Originally Posted By Dr Hans Reinhardt In his latest column Al Lutz claims that, "a few days ago DCA crested the 7 Million attendance threshold and is now easily headed towards a 2012 figure somewhere north of 9 Million for the year, and perhaps 10 Million or more". WHAT??
Originally Posted By Dr Hans Reinhardt Exactly. How is it possible that The Little Theme Park That Could somehow jumped from around 6 million last year to 7 million year to date and could possibly end 2012 with 10 million visitors? I won't flat out dispute Al's report, but it's hard to believe.
Originally Posted By DlandDug It's based on turnstile clicks. The number is higher because more people are visiting DCA, and visiting DCA FIRST. In the past, the number for DCA reflected the fact that most guests visited Disneyland first, then went over to DCA. So even if they spent the rest of their visit at DCA, it was counted as a guest for Disneyland. Since June 15 the overwhelming interest in DCA has led more guests to stop by there first, then head over to Disneyland. And again, even if they spend only an hour at DCA, and six at Disneyland, the "first click" counts as a guest for DCA. The real impact will be seen in the total number for the year. If it is appreciably higher, then DCA has, indeed, turned the corner. (Which pretty much appears to be the case.)
Originally Posted By Dabob2 I still think the numbers sound off. Al, IMO, exaggerated DCA's numbers down in the early days and is exaggerating them up today. He's saying 7 million in the first 8 months of the year? And CarsLand/BVS only open for 2 of those months? That translates to 10.5 million for 12 months, and presumably would be higher for 2013 with the new areas open all year. That's EPCOT-level attendance (without anything close to EPCOT's size). With the ease of parkhopping at DLR, maybe it's true. And yes, everyone wanting to get in line (at least for a fastpass) for RSR early will skew the numbers up, even if they spend much of the day at DL, and all those years when DL opened earlier would have skewed the numbers down, even if people went over to DCA later. Still - something seems off.
Originally Posted By WilliamK99 Still - something seems off.<< It's coming from Al Lutz, of course something is off...
Originally Posted By Dr Hans Reinhardt "It's based on turnstile clicks. The number is higher because more people are visiting DCA, and visiting DCA FIRST. In the past, the number for DCA reflected the fact that most guests visited Disneyland first, then went over to DCA. So even if they spent the rest of their visit at DCA, it was counted as a guest for Disneyland." That explains it... partially. I guess I take issue with the way this information gets reported via blogs and data released by the TEA. Assuming the first click count is true, then wouldn't that mean that DCA's attendance has always been higher than the published numbers? Oh, but wait... the reported attendance numbers were never official to begin with. Oh never mind. Ultimately little of what has been reported about DCA's attendance milestones has made any sense, and it hasn't since the place opened. This latest tidbit only adds to the confusion.
Originally Posted By believe >>>He's saying 7 million in the first 8 months of the year? And CarsLand/BVS only open for 2 of those months?<<< It's kind of like Xmas - retail stores get 40% of their business in the month of December. So for amusement parks, they get a big chunk of their business in the Summer. You've got to admit that since WOC, DCA has been pretty busy (6+ mill) even with all the construction going on. With construction over, people are coming there first. Let see how the combined attendance is at the end of year - then we'll know. By the way, Harry Potter increased IOA attendance substantially, so it's not impossible for DCA to do the same with Carsland. Also, Carsland appeals to nearly ALL demographics - or at least is not controversial. While Harry Potter loses much of the right wing conservative baptists demographics because HP is "anti christian",etc.
Originally Posted By Dabob2 I don't doubt DCA had seen a big attendance bump. But what projects out to EPCOT levels over 12 months-- that surprises me.
Originally Posted By Dr Hans Reinhardt I think the first click thing has a lot to do with it Dabob2. In other words, DCA's attendance may have been underestimated for the past 10 years because a huge chunk of guests weren't counted because they went to DL first. I brought this up several years ago, but the narrative that "DCA sucks" had stuck and drowned out any reasonable discussion about the subject.
Originally Posted By Dabob2 Oh I agree. In fact I said so earlier in the thread. I'm just trying to wrap my head around DCA getting EPCOT numbers.
Originally Posted By Moon Waffle I go to the DLR once per year and have for a long time now. The crowds I have seen this year at the entire resort -even during this supposed "slow time" have been larger than I have ever seen before. No other year has even come close...not even the 50th. The entire resort is now in need of another large expansion to handle the crowds. Heck, might even finally be time for the long-awaited third gate...
Originally Posted By TP2000 Al couldn't fudge the numbers downward for DCA in the first ten years, because those numbers were being reported by the widely-respected TEA industry trade group that reports on attendance for all major theme parks. You can go look up those figures on the TEA website for previous years under "Global Attractions Attendance Report". <a href="http://www.teaconnect.org/publications" target="_blank">http://www.teaconnect.org/publications</a> Al Lutz, and other key bloggers, have reported on daily attendance figures for both parks for years. But the annual attendance figures, those are pretty much left up to the TEA report that comes out each year. For calendar year 2011, TEA reported that Disney California Adventure had an annual attendance of 6,341,000. That was up slightly from DCA's 2010 annual attendance of 6,278,000. Al has gone out there publically with the news that DCA just passed the 7 Million mark over Labor Day weekend and is headed north of the 9 Million mark for calendar year 2012. That's big news! For those that refuse to believe Mr. Lutz and feel he has pulled this figure out of thin air, one only needs to wait until the TEA industry report comes out with the DCA figure for 2012.
Originally Posted By RoadTrip I think the increase is very possible. Harry Potter increased Universal Orlando attendance by over 40%!
Originally Posted By dshyates The 9 million mark isn't out of the question given the density of the market and the buzz on Carsland. And I really hope they hit it. I have been a big DCA detractor since it opened, but I think the effort put into the redo/expansion shows to me that there has been a philosophy change at the top. And I would like to see them be rewarded for it. Conversely, we are seeing the opposite out here in the swamps of Florida. WDW DIDN'T see an attendance bounce when they opened Everest and TDO took that to men that the market was maxed out and that NO addition would increase attendance above what they were getting so they have decided that adding things will NOT bring in higher numbers. They can't comprehend that maybe that it was a lackluster E-Ticket and NOT a maxed market that resulted in lower than expected attendance after Everest opened.
Originally Posted By TP2000 Al did allude to decreases in annual attendance at Disneyland. And he mentioned the real number to watch for 2012 when it's released by TEA is the combined Disneyland/DCA number. Cars Land is a huge hit, obviously. But it also helps that they are opening the DCA entrance at the same hour as Disneyland's every day. For a decade the DCA entrance was delayed by two hours from the Disneyland entrance opening time. I still find it hilarious that some folks feel Al Lutz is pulling this 7 Million figure out of thin air, and would go out on a limb like that without a way to fact-check his work via a trade industry attendance report released annually. I had assumed that everyone as engaged in the American theme park industry as we all seem to be here at LP would be familiar with the TEA annual theme park attendance report. I love pouring over that thing every year when it's released. Here's that link again, for those just learning of the concept of annual attendance reports for the global theme park industry. <a href="http://www.teaconnect.org/publications" target="_blank">http://www.teaconnect.org/publications</a>
Originally Posted By Dabob2 The TEA (and before them ABA) numbers are basically all we have, but they are themselves estimates. Disney doesn't release official numbers yet are supposedly one component through "unofficially official" channels-- one reason the MK always tops DL even in years when (anecdotally at least) it wouldn't seem true - because Disney always wants MK to be #1, which has itself been controversial. Which means Disney is in there somewhere, but perhaps not completely honest Disney. We're also told that Disney uses first clicks in its own numbers, but TEA does not. And wherever Al came up with his 7 million figure for this year so far, it wasn't TEA. He claims, of course, to have sources in Burbank, and while they've been more reliable in recent years than in the past, they're not infallible. The numbers absolutely could be true, but not necessarily. But that brings up another thought-- since one of TEA's sources is the rather vaguely named "industry insiders" - and since some consider Al to be exactly that (he was for a while the sort of default "go-to guy" for the lazier LA media on all things DL) - I've sometimes wondered if Al himself could be one of TEA's sources. If he has Burbank sources, TEA may consider it easier to use a one-stop shop in the form of Al rather than try to cultivate those sources themselves. Pure conjecture, of course. But if they use vague "industry sources" then hell--they could be relying on sources less reliable than Al. It's all rather incestuous, and in the end it's all estimates. The numbers are fun and fun to talk about, but they need some perspective and a couple of grains of salt.
Originally Posted By Manfried Y'all are focusing on number accuracy when there are other interesting tidbits that frankly are more dubious when it comes to accuracy. The street behind Main Street could happen, but let's see he fails to address some very important issues about that like, where to park the parade floats, emergency vehicle access, you know all those things that anyone with real knowledge of Disneyland would know are a problem that cannot be wiped away by a wishful thinking Imagineer's dreaming.
Originally Posted By DBitz2 >>Since June 15 the overwhelming interest in DCA has led more guests to stop by there first, then head over to Disneyland. And again, even if they spend only an hour at DCA, and six at Disneyland, the "first click" counts as a guest for DCA.<< With DCA now opening at the same time as Disneyland, it is possible for early arriving visitors to hit DCA first if they want, which wasn't possible when DCA opened at 10am. The draw of Cars Land surely motivates some guests to go into DCA first. I do find myself going there first at times these days.
