Originally Posted By Spirit of 74 Happy 2008 LPers! Did I miss something? Usually, at the holidays you read/hear about parks having to close lots and gates due to crowds. Well, unless I missed something I don't believe that happened at all this year ... even at the MK on Christmas and NYE. That brings me to wonder if the fact our economy is in a recession (a major one if you go by things like foreclosures and oil prices but let's not tell the lame-brained duck at 1600) is starting to affect WDW. I can tell you anecdotally from speaking to CMs and trying to make plans for a future visit that rooms are available at discounted rates in large amounts right now ... and that you can call a week in advance for PS at places like California Grill and Rose and Crown and literally be able to eat at almost anytime you want, it sure seems like as soon as this week is over the flow is really going to give way as far as attendance. That may be great for those of us planning January (or February) visits, but it can't be good for TWDC and the Florida economy.
Originally Posted By mickeyboy43 Ill agree with you on the crowds and the economical recession. My family has found it harder and harder to go to Disney each year due to increasing ticket prices and cost of living prices in comparison to income. My dad makes very good salary as a city employee in Hoover, but it seems this year more than any other like my parents have had money difficulties. We live in a small house, have small cars, etc. but things are just hard. I dont think that you can use Disney as an example to prove recession though. You can use the same data to say that perhaps people chose to be with their family this time of year as opposed to being at Disney. or maybe people are just losing interest in Disney. Im one of 3 people at my school of 1600 that likes Disney. Everyone else thinks its ridiculous or just doesnt show interest in it. I think TWDC is only in trouble if they start losing more quality and become just another company. In short, Disney needs new management. The End. Happy New year!
Originally Posted By Sport Goofy Hopefully, Disney did some amount of study to find out how TDL did so well throughout the long economic depression in Japan because our economy is getting ready to go through the exact same thing. There are so many similarities between the U.S. economy now and the Japanese economy in the early 90s that it is just plain scary. Of course, the U.S. population has far less savings than Japan did at the height of their bubble economy and the credit bubble here is far worse in magnitude, so it could be a very scary ride to the bottom! I wonder how many families are keeping up with payments on their DVC points when so many other real estate transactions are failing right now?
Originally Posted By Sport Goofy The big news of 2008 will be which major bank fails as a result of the subprime debacle. It could very well be Citi -- and if Citi fails, expect a domino effect that reverberates very strongly through the global economy.
Originally Posted By Spirit of 74 ^^For once, I agree with you completely Goof. And TDL/OLC didn't have the added burden of filling 30,000 hotel rooms and timeshares on a nightly basis either. And you're certainly right about the credit bubble. Right now, it's the Europeans (largely UKers), South Americans and locals that are keeping WDW's bottom line looking so good. If the internationals stop coming, look for some major cutbacks ... I wouldn't be shocked to see a resort or two shuttered for a 'rehab' like they did from 2001-03. I still can't figure out why they still insist on adding inventory with things like the DVCs at DAK Lodge and the Contemporary unless they plan on setting up a sales office in London!
Originally Posted By Mr X **That brings me to wonder if the fact our economy is in a recession (a major one if you go by things like foreclosures and oil prices but let's not tell the lame-brained duck at 1600** Nope. We're not in a recession at all by any stretch of the imagination. It's obvious that the "experts" on TV are getting to you guys though. A recession occurs when job growth decreases and GDP goes negative for at least two consecutive quarters. The jobs numbers are fine, and the economy is clearly GROWING at a slow to moderate pace. When that data changes, I'll surely let you know (but based on that criteria alone things would have to go from good to bad and then stay that way for at least 6 months. We are in a housing recession, that's for sure. But unless our economy was about the size of Fiji's it wouldn't affect the overall picture. Add to that explosive worldwide growth, and you are simply talking nonsense. By the way, a commodities bull market is GOOD for the economy, not bad. When oil prices soar, oil COMPANIES make a killing, build more factories, and hire more workers. **The big news of 2008 will be which major bank fails as a result of the subprime debacle. It could very well be Citi -- and if Citi fails** Possible, but very unlikely. Look at all the important people who are propping up countrywide mortgage to make sure THEY don't fail.
Originally Posted By Sport Goofy << I still can't figure out why they still insist on adding inventory with things like the DVCs at DAK Lodge and the Contemporary >> Well, I can figure it out -- it is a real estate scheme like all the others going on in this country for the past 10 years. The returns are great as long as the buyers keep showing up at your doorstep with their approved subprime loans, but once the music stops watch out!
Originally Posted By Sport Goofy << Look at all the important people who are propping up countrywide mortgage to make sure THEY don't fail. >> There's been a lot of propping up of these houses of cards for the past couple of years. A lot of influential people don't want to see the economy fail while there's a Republican in the White House. We keep putting off the inevitable and propping things up to make people think everything is A-OK but it's only going to make the coming decline that much worse.
Originally Posted By nbodyhome Tourism does run in cycles, but I've not seen anything that looks like a slowdown at the parks yet. And January is pretty booked much of the time, moreso I think than previous years. What I do think has happened, is that crowds are more level than they've been. The highs aren't as high, the lows not as low. Though there are still some really nice times to be down here.
Originally Posted By Sport Goofy << A recession occurs when job growth decreases and GDP goes negative for at least two consecutive quarters. The jobs numbers are fine, and the economy is clearly GROWING at a slow to moderate pace. >> Actually, the job numbers are not all that fine. In fact, they haven't even been keeping up with population growth. Growing jobs by meager numbers that aren't in excess of the number of people being added to your population each year is not healthy. As for GDP growth, it is all dependent on how they measure the inflation rate. Many economists will tell you that the government's CPI measurements have been understating inflation for some time now. What is the true inflation rate? There is some debate about that, but some econmists estimate it to be double what is actually reported by the government. If that's the case, GDP growth is very meager to negative right now.
Originally Posted By mickeyboy43 But do you realize how much of America is based on credit these days? Most people that live in my general community (generally regarded as upper class although i am not rich my any stretch) are up to $100000 in debt. MOst of society is based on credit and people who dont pay. This WILL lead to trouble no matter what.
Originally Posted By Sport Goofy << Tourism does run in cycles, but I've not seen anything that looks like a slowdown at the parks yet. >> Have you noticed fewer Americans and more Europeans filling those parks? WDW is taking advantage of the weak dollar to keep things going there. Otherwise, domestic attendance is down. At DLR, where foreigners account for a small percentage of visitors, Disney has already reported that attendance was down by about 5% in 2007 vs. 2006.
Originally Posted By Mr X **Actually, the job numbers are not all that fine. In fact, they haven't even been keeping up with population growth. Growing jobs by meager numbers that aren't in excess of the number of people being added to your population each year is not healthy.** Where can I find this data you are referring to? **There is some debate about that, but some econmists estimate it to be double what is actually reported by the government.** I'm sorry, but the "some experts say" argument holds very little water with me. Don't some people spend time on LP seeking quotes from scientists to deny global warming? If you look hard enough, you can find some "expert" to tell you anything you want to hear. Inflation is an utterly non-issue, to the point where the Federal Open Market Committee has dismissed it entirely and begun the rate cut process..which, by the way, will be helpful for the credit markets and probably ease us out of this housing recession situation by mid 2008 to early 2009.
Originally Posted By Mr X **MOst of society is based on credit and people who dont pay.** This doesn't make sense. Yes, lenders got greedy and gave loans to people who never had any business taking them. And now those people and those companies are paying the price for sure..and will continue to do so. But the majority of credit worthy people will be just fine, and it's not some new idea that people need loans to buy their homes and cars.
Originally Posted By Sport Goofy << Where can I find this data you are referring to? >> There are several online sources that report this sort of thing. I've found that Barry Ritholz's blog, The Big Picture, is the best and most balanced source of macroeconomic commentary. Regarding jobs/unemployment: <a href="http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2007/11/cyclical-jobs-r.html#comments" target="_blank">http://bigpicture.typepad.com/ comments/2007/11/cyclical-jobs-r.html#comments</a> Some good commentary on inflation: <a href="http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2007/12/inflation-what.html#comments" target="_blank">http://bigpicture.typepad.com/ comments/2007/12/inflation-what.html#comments</a> Lots more at the site.
Originally Posted By Sport Goofy << But the majority of credit worthy people will be just fine, and it's not some new idea that people need loans to buy their homes and cars. >> Except that lenders are throwing out the baby with the bathwater. Not every subprime borrower went into default, but that entire class of loans is virtually unobtainable right now. So, even individuals who could have made the payments are being blocked from getting the loans.
Originally Posted By mickeyboy43 <Right now, it's the Europeans (largely UKers), South Americans and locals that are keeping WDW's bottom line looking so good. If the internationals stop coming, look for some major cutbacks ... I wouldn't be shocked to see a resort or two shuttered for a 'rehab' like they did from 2001-03.> Which resort was this?
Originally Posted By Spirit of 74 When I see signs all over WITH my own eyes that our country is in a recession, I don't need any talking heads on CNN and FOX to tell me ... and they wouldn't because they've basically become the Al-Jezeera of the Administration. That's why we don't see stories on what is happening to real Americans ... we get fluff on winning the war for freedom in Iraq, tigers gone wild and who has custody of the Spears brats. I'm sorry, Mr. X, because this time I will take a shot at you. I think you need to live here to actually understand what is going on. When everyone but the oil companies and some institututional investors on Wall Street are propping up the economy, you have a recession. When the price of both a gallon of gas and a gallon of milk are approaching $4, while salaries aren't rising and benefits are being cut and healthcare costs (for those lucky enough to be insured) are going up ... well, that spells recession. When people are living on credit ... and I'm not even talking about the irresponsible people, I'm talking about hard-working folks who don't want to lose their homes ... the writing is on the wall. When even in my upscale community, houses are being foreclosed on and the average age of a car is now 4-5 years old when people used to trade in every 12-24 months ... that tells me plenty. When companies just close and toss out tens of thousands of professional workers with no one to hire them ... I see recession. When jobs get sent to India, I see recession. When not one of the presidential candidates will mention the word, I KNOW we're in one (as we spend trillions on Iraq ... to benefit all those companies who really run America!)
