Originally Posted By Spirit of 74 <<I don't think you're right, to the extent that my money is completely where my mouth is right there in the stock market...if you're right, I lose.>> I just dumped a load of stock in two media companies, who are both doing quite well (now) ... I'm sure it won't be hard to figure one out. I just felt like taking a decent profit and pulling back for a bit. Besides, that $$$ will pay for me to come to Asia this spring! <<It's one thing to say we might be heading for a recession (I'd disagree, short to mid-term anyway), but to say we're already IN one, never mind a BIG one, is simple nonsense in the sense that the data does nothing to support your claims.>> I know too where you're coming from ... but data lies ... numbers always do. Whether they're surveys, polls or batting averages ... they tell part of the tale, but not the whole story. <<And obviously investors by and large don't agree with you either, with the markets still pushing forwards and near enough to all time highs...now THAT'S the "experts" that will really tell you what is going on.>> I don't deny this. But the only way that'll change is if we wake up tomorrow and the Dow drops 800 pounds ... and another 600 the next day etc ... everything is tied to Wall Street. And that doesn't equate with how things are going on Main Street (or Main Street USA to stay on topic!) <<And they, too, have confirmed a complete housing recession...just look at the stock price for almost any lender, homebuilder, or investment firm right now.>> We definitely are. I love driving up Biscayne Blvd in Miami, overlooking the bay. You have about 10 new condo towers all either just opened or about to open, and I just wonder who the hell is gonna live here ... all those speculators who bought them up at $500,000 a piece, can't sell 'em for half that. I see them becoming high-rise tenements before they're even open if this continues. To me, the housing recession is just an obvious sign ... what's the saying ... a (blank) in a coal mine?
Originally Posted By CMDad <<Well, unless I missed something I don't believe that happened at all this year ... even at the MK on Christmas and NYE.>> Wow - just getting to read this thread so I don't know if this has been mentioned yet, but on July 27 - my first day at MK this trip - I did get a call from my daughter letting me know that the park had closed to non-resort guests. I don't know if it happened on any other day during the week - but it did on that day.
Originally Posted By Spirit of 74 <<THis still goes back to the American mindset though, and the change it has undergone within the past years.>> It has. And it scares me. We're moving very, very far to the right with presidential candidates invoking God left and right. If there's one place God shouldn't be, it's the White House. But if you feel everything is 'God's will' it makes it much easier to justify truly evil acts (see 9/11). <<And yeah, this thread is moving fast.>. Welcome to my world I should get paid for keeping the LP hopping!
Originally Posted By Sport Goofy << And obviously investors by and large don't agree with you either, with the markets still pushing forwards and near enough to all time highs...now THAT'S the "experts" that will really tell you what is going on. >> You might take a look at how the stock market performed in 1929 all the way up into the Great Depression. Current stock prices don't necessarily reflect future prognosis for the economy. Regardless of economic fundamentals, we also have the prospect everyday going forward of Baby Boomers retiring, moving to fixed incomes, and withdrawing their savings in 401K and other stock based investments to fund their retirements. Stock markets probably won't fare all too well with a large number of investors having to sell their shares to pay for groceries in increasing numbers every day, month, and year.
Originally Posted By Spirit of 74 <<Wow - just getting to read this thread so I don't know if this has been mentioned yet, but on July 27 - my first day at MK this trip - I did get a call from my daughter letting me know that the park had closed to non-resort guests.>> Wow, Mark!!! Dude, you had one loooooooong ass trip. From July to December. Did you ever get bored? And how does it feel to be so wealthy? ;-)
Originally Posted By Mr X **To me, the housing recession is just an obvious sign ... what's the saying ... a (blank) in a coal mine?** Well, I don't see it that way. It already IS a significant drag on the overall economy, of course, which is why we're moving forward so much more slowly than we should be...but by and large I am in the camp that considers the issue contained to the jokers that created the mess in the first place.
Originally Posted By CMDad ^^ IS there any doubt now that I got a little punchy this trip ... Hey when you reach MY age, sometimes I am happy to remember ANYTHING <sigh>
Originally Posted By nbodyhome The problem with housing is that it rose so fast, and many people #1 overpaid for homes that they bought, and #2 bought with shaky lending practices to afford more home than they could reasonably pay for in the long run. For some, the downturn with housing is going to be good (anyone who might want to actually buy a house).
Originally Posted By mickeyboy43 Where I live, the housing drag really hasnt been as bad as its been portrayed in other places. But still, all the fluctuations in the economy recently coupled with human greed of oil companies, etc. leaves everyone in trouble. And could someone please explain the Phase Thing?
Originally Posted By nbodyhome There are different phases at the parks as to who is allowed/not allowed in. I don't remember them anymore, but the last phase would be totally closed to everyone. I used to know all the phases, but not anymore.
Originally Posted By hopemax Phase 1 - Guests using Magic Your Way base tickets or 1 day/1 park tickets, CM passes (Silver, Main Entrance) are denied entry. Parking lot is shut down to people arriving by car; have to use Disney transportation. Phase 2 - Resort guests, Annual Passholder, people using multi-day park hopper tickets, and people reentering the park are admitted. Phase 3 - Resort Guests, Annual Passholders, Guests at Shades of Green/Downtown Disney Hotels admitted. Need to use resort transportation Phase 4 - No one admitted.
Originally Posted By mickeyboy43 When does a Phase 1 usually start. And what if youre staying on resort but have a MYW ticket? Which one has effect?
Originally Posted By nbodyhome Also, remember that this happens only a handful of days of the year. And not to all the parks, and not all day.
Originally Posted By mickeyboy43 So that means that if youre staying on property, then you can come in on Phase 3 even if you only have a base ticket? or the other way around?
Originally Posted By mickeyboy43 Im guessing the best thing to do is come early to mid morning to avoid this then.
Originally Posted By hopemax The phase 2s seem to start 10ish, so phase 1 would be before. Most times all phases are lifted in the afternoon. Even yesterday, all phases were lifted by 6:30ish.
Originally Posted By Spirit of 74 Honestly, when you only hit phase 2 for one park (MK) on Christmas and then only for 3-4 hours in the morning and early afternoon, it isn't that big a deal. If EPCOT and MGM (?!?!) reached even Phase 3 yesterday, that would signify a lot more. Also, the fact that there were no total closings at all -- and apparently even phased closing beyond 12/25 and 12/31 tell me this wasn't an overly crowded period.
