Originally Posted By fkurucz >> I still can't figure out why they still insist on adding inventory with things like the DVCs at DAK Lodge and the Contemporary unless they plan on setting up a sales office in London! << The reason thay are pushing DVC so hard is that it pretty much guarantees future visits. If you dump ten thousand up front and a thousand every year for the fees, then unless you are totally broke, you will probably take a Disney vacation every year.
Originally Posted By fkurucz <<Ill agree with you on the crowds and the economical recession. My family has found it harder and harder to go to Disney each year due to increasing ticket prices and cost of living prices in comparison to income. My dad makes very good salary as a city employee in Hoover, but it seems this year more than any other like my parents have had money difficulties. We live in a small house, have small cars, etc. but things are just hard. >> When wages fail to keep pace with real inflation this is the inescapable outcome. The first thing to go are luxuries. <<Most people that live in my general community (generally regarded as upper class although i am not rich my any stretch) are up to $100000 in debt.>> Its not that hard to end up in this position. Start with a couple of moderatley priced cars that are financed ($40,000). Throw in a hospiatlization that isn't fully covered by the cheapo insurance plan they offer you at work and maybe some braces for the kids. Or maybe you get laid off and it takes 6-12 months to find another job in your field, so you live off your credit cards during that time. And the new job you eventully find only pays 90% of what the old job did. Now you're up to your eyeballs in debt and you can't cover your monthly expenses (which includes servicing the new debt) with your new reduced income. And you have no equity in your house to borrow because the real estate market nationwide has tanked. Sell the house and rent an apartment until you get back on your feet? Houses aren't moving at all in some markets, plus you might owe more on the house than its worth. Now you are charging groceries on your credit cards. Another reason people are in this pickle is because they bought houses that they could not afford. On one hand it is their fault, and they should have ignored the warning/scare tactic "buy now or be priced out forever". But on the other hand, lenders did give these loans when they should have known better. And don't think that filing for bankruptcy will get one out of this mess. The banksters saw this coming a long time ago and lobbied to have bankruptcy laws changed to favor them. They will end up taking it in the shorts with the bad mortgages, as there is no way they will recover the money lost on those houses from most debtors.
Originally Posted By fkurucz <<But on the other hand, lenders did give these loans when they should have known better.>> And by this I mean that even the banks drank the "real estate always appreciates at double digit rates" kool aid. In their minds the sub prime loans were risk free. They assumed that Joe 6 pack would be able serially refinance his ever appreciating house and always be able to use it as an ATM to pay his day to day expenses. What I find amazing is that none of our financial or government leaders raised a red flag while this was happening. They had to understand that the party could not last. Bank of America has now estimated that as many as 20,000,000 houses may end up being foreclosed or surrendered to the lenders (I'm guessing that those families won't be visiting WDW anytime soon).
Originally Posted By pheneix To clear up some misconceptions about NYE. MGM and Epcot did NOT phase close at any point on NYE. They did not even come close. Magic Kingdom went to phase 3 for a few hours but that went away around 6:00pm. However, even with MK at capacity, Epcot was the highest attended park on NYE.
Originally Posted By fkurucz <<Except that lenders are throwing out the baby with the bathwater. Not every subprime borrower went into default, but that entire class of loans is virtually unobtainable right now. So, even individuals who could have made the payments are being blocked from getting the loans.>> The problem is that the subprimes are already defaulting at a rate that is an order of magnitude greater than what was anticipated, and the majority have not yet reset from their artificially low teaser rates. Subprime was a bad idea to begin with. If a borrower was considered a bad risk for a conventional mortgage, shouldn't he be an even higher risk for a high interest rate loan? The only way sub-prime could work was if the borrowers could serially refinance their mortgages, and that required never ending appreciation. If you give someone a mortgage that will consume 60% or more of their income to service, then it is guaranteed that they will eventually default.
Originally Posted By fkurucz <<Inflation is an utterly non-issue, to the point where the Federal Open Market Committee has dismissed it entirely and begun the rate cut process.>> A non issue? LOL! I have made it a habit to ask people if inflation is an issue for them, and the answer usuaully is a resounding yes! The gov't can keep on telling that things are under control, the the real world evidence is becoming far too compelling. People know that their checkbooks are not lying to them. They know that they can no longer make ends meet without a lifestyle change. As far as the Fed containing inflation, then why has the dollar been tanking so bad these past few years. Everytime they drop interest rates the dollar tanks even more. IMO, they want inflation, because they are hoping to use it to mitigate the real estate bust (not that I think its going to work).
Originally Posted By fkurucz <<When I see signs all over WITH my own eyes that our country is in a recession>> I do too, but that's because you and I are worker bees. If you are wealthy $4 milk and gas are non issues. Outsourcing increases their bottom line. Ours has become a gov't by, of and for the corporation. When policies are discussed, they are discussed in light of how they affect corporations, not the people.
Originally Posted By fkurucz <<Yes. And I've heard that a housing crunch may be coming to the UK like our bubble ... if that happens, WDW is in trouble.>> It has started, prices are starting to fall in some places in the UK. They are only 2 years behind us. Ditto for Spain.
Originally Posted By fkurucz <<Anyway, firsthand "observations" aren't all that accurate...that's why you need to look at the big picture.>> In principle I agree with you. But what if the big picture numbers provided are a fabrication? What if you have lost all trust in the current administration? What if the gov't tells me that inflation is only 2%, but my household budget shows that its closer to 10%. Its easy for the gov't to fudge the numbers. All they have to do is add weight to things that are coming down in price (like plasma TV's) and give less weight to necessities that people have to buy, like groceries, healthcare and energy. Plus they play games with concepts like "hedonics". For instance, they will say that while real prices on cars have exceeded the official inflation rate, they will also say that cars have features that they didn't use to have, so you are getting more car. Whle this may technically be true, in the end cars still are more expensive. And the gov't has a very good reason to fudge these numbers. If they are low then they can: Keep social security COLAs down Pay lower interest on Treasury bills. If they announced that inflation was 10%, who would buy t-bills that only pay 5%.
Originally Posted By fkurucz <<There are also expenses which have gone down over the years. Phone, internet, I'm sure some other things as well. Gas isn't cheap, but it's not as expensive as in some other countries. Airfare is still a great bargain, compared with 10 - 15 years ago, IMHO. Not everything is dire. >> I'm not so sure that my phone service has come down, nor my broadband service. But I will agree that "luxuries" or as I call them "things that I want" have come down in price. But necessities or "things that I need" are going up. Domestic airfares are an interesting situation. I have definitely benefitted from the $200 RTs these past few years. But I also can't help but notice the dire straights that most domestic carriers are in. For one thing, they are not buying a lot of new aircraft. IIRC, not a single Boeing 787 has been purchased by domestic carrier. What I'm getting at is that the current situation is not sustainable.
Originally Posted By fkurucz <<I agree with that. When I travel to the UK or even to France, I feel more welcome arriving there than I do coming back to the US. I really dislike the treatment that I've had upon return in the past couple of years. And I'm not foreign. I don't expect our visitors to be treated poorly either. They are coming to visit, to spend money, and don't deserve that.>> It really bugs me that we treat legitimate visitors this way, but then bend over backwards for illegals.
Originally Posted By Brian Noble This is all really interesting, but I wonder if the premise---that attendance was down this year---is true. As has been mentioned, MK reached phase 2/3 several times, and the OrSen has an article today that suggests that things were mostly O-kay in O-town for the past two weeks: <a href="http://www.orlandosentinel.com/business/custom/tourism/orl-hotels0208jan02" target="_blank">http://www.orlandosentinel.com /business/custom/tourism/orl-hotels0208jan02</a>,0,6176774.story The full article has some suggestions of trouble: one mid-range hotel having trouble (a La Quinta), and increased international visitation. An interesting read.
Originally Posted By Brian Noble >>>It really bugs me that we treat legitimate visitors this way<<< Japan is starting to return the favor, fingerprinting and photographing inbounds. An interesting contrast to the EU's open internal borders, and generally pleasant border control policies.
Originally Posted By Brian Noble Grrr. Here's another link to that OrSen article: <a href="http://tinyurl.com/2emupx" target="_blank">http://tinyurl.com/2emupx</a>
Originally Posted By fkurucz <<I know many Americans have been brainwashed to feel socialized medicine is a bad thing. But almost anything is better than what we have now.>> I think that we will soon reach that critical mass. Corporate America is pretty much passing on all heathcare premium increases to employees. I eventually expect them to pass the entire cost to employees because "we must do this to remain competitive". Once Joe 6 pack sees that he has to pay $1000 a month to insure his family, he will drop coverage altogether and do what the poor do: he won't pay the bill at the hospital. At this point we will have no choice but to go to a national heath system.
Originally Posted By fkurucz <<<< And obviously investors by and large don't agree with you either, with the markets still pushing forwards and near enough to all time highs...now THAT'S the "experts" that will really tell you what is going on. >> I don't know, but the last time I looked the US markets were off all time highs by a few percentage points. And if you factor in the decline of the dollar, well, you would have been better off stuffing Euros in your mattress.
Originally Posted By fkurucz From the article: "But traffic at the theme parks suggested that people are still adamant about getting away during the holidays." We'll see how adamant they are next year, especially if there is no bonus and the credit cards are maxed out.
Originally Posted By fkurucz <<Its not that hard to end up in this position.>> Oh, and I forgot: You have kids in college! And even though they have partial scholarships its still costing 20K a year. Too bad the State U isn't the bargain it used to be when you went there. And student loans aren't the low interest bargains that they used to be either.
Originally Posted By vbdad55 ^^ yeah, college -- I have one on a 'full ride' for tuition and room ( board and books and fees and everyday expenses still run between $8 - $10K ) - heck, they are student teaching and gas for the car running almost $300/month - as for other inflationary costs - I want someone to show me how my property taxes have increased 11% , 10% and 13% the last 3 years - food costs are documented to have increased anywhere from 8% - 15% in the least 18 months depending on item, gasoline continues to increase, medical insurance is rising 25% a year ( ALL NECESSITIES) and somehow inflation in 3%-4% ? I guess if I was buying yachts and luxo cars where prices have decreased - I could be taking advantage of the 'big picture ' same with big screen tv's - if you buy one sure - what was $5K a few years ago is $1500 now - but is that a necessity. Can someone show me a list of everyday necessities that has decreased. btw - natural gas bill is 30% higher than 2 years ago. Electric bills in Illinois just rose 40% as an artificial cap on increases expired - not to be renewed by the St government. Phone bills have not decreased and paying the same for my satellite TV -- so where are these great savings ? All of this absolutely takes a toll on the average WDW visitors available cash for spending - most I know just do not have any.
Originally Posted By Spirit of 74 <<To clear up some misconceptions about NYE. MGM and Epcot did NOT phase close at any point on NYE. They did not even come close. Magic Kingdom went to phase 3 for a few hours but that went away around 6:00pm. However, even with MK at capacity, Epcot was the highest attended park on NYE.>> Thanks for the info. Any official 'unofficial' numbers?
