Holiday Crowds and the Economy ...

Discussion in 'Walt Disney World News, Rumors and General Disc' started by See Post, Jan 1, 2008.

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    Originally Posted By Spirit of 74

    <<I do too, but that's because you and I are worker bees. If you are wealthy $4 milk and gas are non issues. Outsourcing increases their bottom line.>>

    I'm not exactly a worker bee. But it's still an issue for me ... I actually care about my country and the people who have it the worst.

    <<Ours has become a gov't by, of and for the corporation. When policies are discussed, they are discussed in light of how they affect corporations, not the people.>>

    So true ...
     
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    Originally Posted By mickeyboy43

    I hate the idea of outsourcing. It destroys the american work ethic (virtually non-existent now) and it sends money into other countries when it could send money here. But the gvmt could help by reducing costs of paperwork etc.
     
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    Originally Posted By Mr X

    **A non issue? LOL! I have made it a habit to ask people if inflation is an issue for them, and the answer usuaully is a resounding yes!**

    Again, you can miss the forest for the trees. The data is clear and has been for years, inflation is increasing at an acceptable rate of around 2% per year, throw in energy and food and you've got 2.5%.

    And, to add to the good news, the Federal Open Market Committee minutes from the meeting last month indicate something they have NEVER said before, at least not in many many years.

    *Fed says core inflation to trend down over next 'few years'.
     
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    Originally Posted By nbodyhome

    Phone service has definitely come down. You used to have to pay big bucks for long-distance. Now I can pay 2.9 cents a minute with a phone card, or cheaper with VOIP, or a flat rate with some companies.
     
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    Originally Posted By Sport Goofy

    << *Fed says core inflation to trend down over next 'few years'. >>

    So, in other words, if you ignore things like energy, food, and housing, inflation is moderate! Makes sense, it's not like anyone really needs to put gas in their car, buy groceries, or pay rent! ;-)
     
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    Originally Posted By Mr X

    ***I don't know, but the last time I looked the US markets were off all time highs by a few percentage points. And if you factor in the decline of the dollar, well, you would have been better off stuffing Euros in your mattress.***

    The markets have risen an average of 11% over the past 2 years, that's officially on the books, take it to the bank...sorry Charlie, those euros wouldn't have done you much good in comparison. Now...if we crash from here of course, you will have been right ;)
     
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    Originally Posted By Mr X

    **So, in other words, if you ignore things like energy, food, and housing, inflation is moderate! Makes sense, it's not like anyone really needs to put gas in their car, buy groceries, or pay rent! ;-)**

    There is a good reason why commodities are not factored into that particular study (you can see non-core right along side it, so it's not like they're hiding anything)..they are too volatile and there are factors which are way too variable for any month by month analysis of trend such as weather, world events (oil is very jumpy, obviously), etc...

    But should you wish to factor all of it in (assuming you believe the data...seems like lots of people tell me "the government is lying", and if you believe THAT then you can make up any figure that suits you as so many here are doing), inflation is increasing at a moderate TWO POINT FIVE PERCENT.

    Simply facts, simple reality.
     
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    Originally Posted By Sport Goofy

    << inflation is increasing at a moderate TWO POINT FIVE PERCENT. >>

    Even using the U.S. Commerce Dept's figures for December, total inflation was estimated at 3.6% year over year. I'm not sure where you get your 2.5% figure from.

    The government figures are rigged to understate inflation. For example, automobile price inflation is based upon the number of features available in each new model year. The government assumes that if new features are added, prices really aren't inflating because consumers get more for their dollar. Nevermind that you can't buy a stripped down automobile with 1970s features at any price these days. They do the same with consumer products. If Brand X laundry detergent increases by 10% in price, the government will substitute it for no-name brand detergent that is cheaper to eliminate inflation trends from that particular product segment. There are a number of other manipulations, but overall the government figures are designed to keep entitlement program costs as low as possible and not to actually reflect price inflation in the economy.
     
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    Originally Posted By Mr X

    **Even using the U.S. Commerce Dept's figures for December, total inflation was estimated at 3.6% year over year. I'm not sure where you get your 2.5% figure from.**

    Got it from Bob Brinker (on the radio...money talk program).

    As for your estimate, that very well may be but the data is not completely in yet and your estimated figure could certainly end up lower (or, sure, higher...we'll see).

    **The government figures are rigged to understate inflation. For example, automobile price inflation is based upon the number of features available in each new model year. The government assumes that if new features are added, prices really aren't inflating because consumers get more for their dollar.**

    You're making a big assumption in stating that the reason, and the way you put it, the ONLY reason, for this formula is to understate inflation.

    If I sell lightbulbs, and you pay me $1 for the bulb, and the next year I sell you a bulb that lasts an average of 50% longer for a price of $1.65, what would you say is the percentage for "light bulb inflation" year over year?

    If you can tell me, unequivocally, then you're a smarter guy than I because I can't. There are simply other factors to consider...which is why formulas are utilised.

    Sure, the formulas might be wrong, or skewed for this reason or that. They do need constant adjustment of course.

    But if you tell me that light bulb inflation was 65% (and that's what a lot of people are trying to throw out there on this thread), well you'd be wrong wouldn't you?

    As for the cars and all that, sure additional features factor in. In particular, reliability is an issue. If my car is FAR more reliable than last years model, costing me far less in repair costs, even if it costs more that doesn't necessarily mean it was because "inflation is skyrocketing". In fact, my total cost for the life of the item might end up being less than the guy that bought it "cheaper" the year before.
     
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    Originally Posted By Mr X

    **Got it from Bob Brinker (on the radio...money talk program).**

    To clarify, I've seen lots of data and plenty of differing opinions...I quote Brinkers' sentiment for simplicity, and because I tend to believe in his analysis of economic conditions (because he's almost always right).
     
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    Originally Posted By MPierce

    >> It really bugs me that we treat legitimate visitors this way, but then bend over backwards for illegals. <<

    That really needed saying, Thank You!
     
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    Originally Posted By vbdad55

    <Phone service has definitely come down. You used to have to pay big bucks for long-distance. Now I can pay 2.9 cents a minute with a phone card, or cheaper with VOIP, or a flat rate with some companies<

    the cost for my unlimited LD service is the same as it was 5 years ago when I signed up for it - maybe some people paid a lot more but I was not one of them

    voip can be an issue security wise, IMHO.
     
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    Originally Posted By vbdad55

    < If my car is FAR more reliable than last years model,<

    if this is true you bought the wrong car last year - improvements are not that great year to year - and when new models are introduced usually go down for a period
     
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    Originally Posted By MPierce

    >> yeah, college -- I have one on a 'full ride' for tuition and room ( board and books and fees and everyday expenses still run between $8 - $10K ) - heck, they are student teaching and gas for the car running almost $300/month - <<

    College is putting a lot of parents into debt. We out source all of the high paying jobs, and then convince parents that their child needs a College education to get by in life. We allow illegal aliens in to do our slave labor while the middle class takes a bite in taxes to support them with their education, housing, and health care needs. Sorry no more blue collar jobs, Americans won't do them, BULL!
    Man I feel better.
     
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    Originally Posted By Sport Goofy

    << Phone service has definitely come down. >>

    Has it really? Are you including mobile phones? I can see where phone service costs may have declined or at least not inflated when you are talking about residential landlines -- but who hasn't added mobile phones to their overall communications spending?

    I got rid of my landline many years ago to try and consolidate costs. Even considering that there are no long distance charges on mobile service, my mobile phone bill still exceeds the combined sum of local and long distance landline service.

    What about internet access? That's another communication expense that didn't exist a decade or so ago. Where does that fit in?

    How about cable/satellite TV? This is a communications expense as well.

    I think it's relatively simplistic to say that "phones are less expensive now," when there are a lot more communications expenses that Americans would be hard pressed not to pay a monthly bill for. I, for one, could probably not survive without a mobile phone or internet access in this day and age. There are additional services to go along with these additional costs, but it smells like a hidden sort of inflation to me.
     
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    Originally Posted By nbodyhome

    >> Has it really? Are you including mobile phones? I can see where phone service costs may have declined or at least not inflated when you are talking about residential landlines -- but who hasn't added mobile phones to their overall communications spending?

    I got rid of my landline many years ago to try and consolidate costs. Even considering that there are no long distance charges on mobile service, my mobile phone bill still exceeds the combined sum of local and long distance landline service.

    What about internet access? That's another communication expense that didn't exist a decade or so ago. Where does that fit in? <<

    I remember having bills of a couple of hundred dollars a month occasionally, that included long distance service (and not very long calls, either). Internet service has certainly been around longer than 10 years. I have been online for 20 years now, including 15 years of that on AOL. Prior to that, it was Prodigy, Genie and Compuserve. Prior, Fidonet. And I paid long distance charges to get onto most BBS's I wanted to read.

    AOL used to be about $9.95 for 5 hours, and $3.00 or so per hour after that. I racked up some big bills. I remember when GEnie went up to $20.00 per month for TEXT based service, this was maybe 15 years ago now. Adjust for inflation, and that $20.00 is higher. I can get on AOL free now. Of course, there is the service to get on - but it doesn't have to cost an arm and a leg.

    As far as cell phones - I have a to-go phone. I get 1000 minutes for $107 after tax, no contract. That lasts me for most of a year. Cable/satellite is a choice, not a necessity. It is expensive, and always has been. I have basic, and have had Netflix a long time (about 7 years). Considering what the cost of videos can be, that has been a way of keeping costs down. Plus I go to the movies rarely.
     
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    Originally Posted By MPierce

    >> Anyone who would wait that long for a theme park attraction really is ... well ... nuts. <<

    That's a fair description.

    >> Mr. X, I don't know if I've waited two hours for an attraction, but I suspect in my younger days, I may have.

    Now? I won't wait in any line that is over 20-30 minutes unless it is something brand new. I waited an hour to ride the Nemo Subs in DL in September. <<

    I waited in line for one hour to ride POTC in DL, when I rode it I got in line for it again. I was 18 at the time, but I still new I was NUTS!

    >>I would never wait 5 hours for anything. The point was, there were people there. :) <<

    Isn't that the average time it takes to have dinner in France?
     
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    Originally Posted By nbodyhome

    Oh - I understand the internet wasn't available for all the time I mentioned, but it has been available for more than a decade. And I was online well before that.
     
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    Originally Posted By MPierce

    Maybe the Italians have it right. Sponge off your Mom, and Dad until your almost 40. That way you can buy everything cash. You are debt free.
     
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    Originally Posted By MPierce

    >> Oh - I understand the internet wasn't available for all the time I mentioned, but it has been available for more than a decade. And I was online well before that. <<

    The initial cost of the internet was the reason I didn't get on it until 1996. When I did I paid a little over $3300 for my 166 computer with a 2 gig hard drive and 24 worth of memory. That was with a hugh 15 inch monitor a scanner, and a printer. I had the baddest boy in the neighborhood for about a week.
     

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