Holiday Crowds and the Economy ...

Discussion in 'Walt Disney World News, Rumors and General Disc' started by See Post, Jan 1, 2008.

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    Originally Posted By Sport Goofy

    << I think it was a Ralph's now that you mention it. >>

    Ralph's is the worst. I refuse to shop there anymore. I'm fortunate enough to be able to shop at military commissaries, but if I have to do the same shopping at Ralph's my grocery bill doubles. If I grocery shop at Wal-Mart, the bill only goes up by about 20%.
     
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    Originally Posted By nbodyhome

    Oh - I didn't know you were from here too. :)

    I do know that a lot of stores have the discount cards (in CA, also in the DC area, some here too). I don't like it - so I go to Publix. BUT, I know at the Giant in MD, they will ask me if I have one. I will say I'm from out of town, and almost always they will swipe a card (someone elses, or a card at the register) for me.

    Remember also, there are Targets - the bread and milk there will be reasonable. There is a Target in Anaheim (or maybe it's Garden Grove), that is one I know about. There is a Costco about 4 miles from Disneyland. 7-11 has bread, milk at more expensive, but not unheard of type prices. They also sometimes have Chocodiles. :) I love Chocodiles!

    Just stay out of Whole Foods. I have never been to a Ralphs.
     
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    Originally Posted By nbodyhome

    Oh - I don't hate Whole Foods, it's just that I can get many of the items elsewhere (cheaper).
     
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    Originally Posted By fkurucz

    <<I've noticed that the local grocers here in CA usually mark up their prices by as much as 50-100% for anyone that doesn't have the discount card to swipe at the register. >>

    Doesn't that usually only affect sale items?

    Also, IIRC, Albertsons has discontinued their membership/discount card program. WalMart and Target also do not have them.
     
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    Originally Posted By fkurucz

    <<Well I have to say I did question her as it sounds steep to me - we pay between 80 cents to $1.20 for a loaf here, and about $2 for 4 pints of milk.>>

    It seems that the going price for a US Gallon of milk is between $3 and $4. You will pay a serious premium for organic milk. Also, I have notice that the gallon jug doesn't cost much more than a 1/2 gallon container. Say %3.60 vs. $3.15. Weird.
     
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    Originally Posted By bobbelee9

    Bought 2 1 gallons of milk today, $3.09 each gallon. Massachusetts. A few months ago it was around $2.39.
     
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    Originally Posted By nbodyhome

    Milk has gone up a lot here too. I now buy half gallons of organic, it lasts longer in the refrigerator.
     
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    Originally Posted By Sport Goofy

    The unemployment and jobs figures released today don't bode well for the economy headed into 2008 . . .

    A rise in unemployment usually lags in the economic cycle leading into downturns, which probably means the recession is already in progress.
     
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    Originally Posted By nbodyhome

    I haven't seen the new figures. What with the rise in gas, food, etc. prices, I would not be surprised to see tourism take a tumble at some point (though I expected it already, and Disney has still been busy).
     
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    Originally Posted By Mr X

    **A rise in unemployment usually lags in the economic cycle leading into downturns, which probably means the recession is already in progress.**

    Same thing happened a few months ago, everyone freaked, and then the revised data didn't reflect the original stuff.

    It's a very big assumption you're making, claiming that we are "probably" in a recession already.

    Anyway, as I said, I don't buy it. Time will tell who is right.
     
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    Originally Posted By Sport Goofy

    << Same thing happened a few months ago, everyone freaked, and then the revised data didn't reflect the original stuff. >>

    The data wasn't nearly this weak in the report you cite. It would take a huge revision to make these numbers look good.
     
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    Originally Posted By Mr X

    We shall see.
     
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    Originally Posted By bobbelee9

    A year ago, there would be 1 or 2 home foreclosures once a week in the local paper. Now there are 6-8 3 or 4 days a week.
     
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    Originally Posted By fkurucz

    ^^And its still going to get worse.
     
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    Originally Posted By cmash95

    I find it funny that home sale levels in the pre 2001 levels are now considered bad because we have a few years of crazy growth. as usual bankers come up with schemes to sell overpriced houses to people who really couldn't afford them in order to keep the boom going. for those of you old enough to remember, we had a savings and loan crisis in the late 80's and it took roughly four years to get through unfortunately it was on bush's fathers' watch and was one of the main causes of mr clinton getting elected. this houseing crisis will probably take three to four years to fix as well but things are no where as bad as they were in the late 80's and yes they had prices drop as well and people couldnt sell their homes because noone would lend money.
    as far as disney is concerned, when you have oil at 100 a barrel and gas at 3.25 a gallon and the ripple effects it causes on prices at grocery stores etc. there isn't much left over to go to disneyworld or anywhere else for that matter for us floridians that could be good because we may get deals, not only on hotel rooms but gate admission as well.
     
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    Originally Posted By barboy

    I do hear what you're saying cmash, but today's lending/real estate problems are far more monumental than what when down before..... and it was in the very early 90's when homes(at least on the west coast anyway)saw dramatic value drops.

    The real estate economy of the 200K to 1.3 million range in places like Miami, Las Vegas and California's central valley have more or less completey collapsed. This isn't hyperbole or exaggeration; in markets like those foreclosures and short sales are so very common now that when a for sale sign goes up on a front lawn it is presumed to be a distress sale. In sacramento a home once could have sold in 5 days for $600K now will sit for 8 months and be lucky if the seller could unload it for $375K.
     
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    Originally Posted By Sport Goofy

    << this houseing crisis will probably take three to four years to fix as well but things are no where as bad as they were in the late 80's and yes they had prices drop as well and people couldnt sell their homes because noone would lend money. >>

    Things could be much worse this time around for one primary reason -- nobody in the United States saves money anymore. The savings rate has been hovering around zero for several years now. People have been conditioned to expect their homes to act like an ATM to pay for cars, TVs, vacations, and even groceries thanks to the miracle of the home equity loan. With home values plummeting, the home equity ATM is turned off and most Americans have no savings to turn to. That is a contributing factor to the precipitous drop in new car sales this year -- no more home equity lines of credit to finance the new wheels. The lack of savings, declining home values, and the surge in Baby Boomers heading into retirement and fixed income living do not bode well for the U.S. economy. The Baby Boomer problem alone is probably enough to spell economic disaster for the U.S. I would not have expected the demographics to be a negative influence for at least another five years, but this whole subprime housing debacle will probably accelerate some of economic deterioration so the negative outcomes are experienced much sooner than most people anticipated.
     
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    Originally Posted By bobbelee9

    You can blame the NE housing market on one of my daughters. When her 2nd child started school, she got her realor's license. 2 years and she hasn't sold a house yet, so she had to get another job as well. Even the owner of the realty company is doing side jobs. Not encouraging.
     
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    Originally Posted By SuperDry

    ^^^ Did she at least get a gold blazer out of the deal? :)
     
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    Originally Posted By SuperDry

    Regarding the S&L crisis, wasn't that primarily a scandal involving bad commercial loans? Lots dubious loans to developers of shopping centers, strip malls, and the like. I guess this would also include housing developers, and when the whole thing blew up those homes already completed but not sold had to be dumped onto the market, which would lead to a glut in supply and therefore lower values.

    The current sub-prime/alt-a crisis is different in that the bad loans were made directly to consumers, and were a direct cause of prices getting so out of control (and ironically getting so high that many people needed alt-a loans to qualify).

    I don't know which will be a bigger problem once all is said and done, but they are fundamentally different situations. Or at least that's how I understand and remember it.
     

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