Originally Posted By ecdc <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/22/us/politics/22pennsylvania.html?_r=2&hp&oref=slogin&oref=slogin" target="_blank">http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10...f=slogin</a> After yesterday's news that McCain was all but conceding Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico, comes word that McCain is essentially betting his candidacy on Pennsylvania. His campaign now believes that those other three states are long shots, and that Pennsylvania is their best hope. It's become clear that McCain needs to flip a serious blue state. Is Pennsylvania it? And if he does win it, does that solve his electoral math problem?
Originally Posted By Mr X It'd be funny if Obama responded by conceeding PA and then throwing double cash into 2 or 3 serious red states.
Originally Posted By SuperDry <<< Is Pennsylvania it? And if he does win it, does that solve his electoral math problem? >>> According to 270towin.com, if McCain were to flip PA to his favor, then the electoral math breaks down as follows: he'd also need to win EACH of FL, OH, and NC, *plus* also 3 out of 4 among IN, MO, MT, and CO. At least that's better than he's at now, which is no way to win the election at all even if he carries every undecided state.
Originally Posted By Mr X I don't really see how they could manage to flip a blue state anyway. The attack ads have already proven ineffective, what else do that have to go with?
Originally Posted By ecdc >>According to 270towin.com, if McCain were to flip PA to his favor, then the electoral math breaks down as follows: he'd also need to win EACH of FL, OH, and NC, *plus* also 3 out of 4 among IN, MO, MT, and CO.<< If that's McCain's strategy, that's a tough one, though perhaps his best chance. Florida, Ohio, and North Carolina are doable. Missouri and Montana will probably go McCain. Colorado and Indiana are tougher. Probably Indiana over Colorado. Again, it's doable, but not likely. And mind, this all rests on McCain flipping Pennsylvania, where every poll shows Obama with a double-digit lead. What's McCain going to do to turn that around in two weeks? And the polling is probably missing a lot of the new registered voters that heavily favor Democrats. I'm not saying Obama can just roll over. He ought to spend more time in Pennsylvania than, say, West Virginia.
Originally Posted By SuperDry <<< I don't really see how they could manage to flip a blue state anyway. >>> The most recent polling for PA is that Obama is leading by 10% in a poll with a 4% margin of error, so yea, that would be a tough nut to crack. But to respond directly to your comment, what else can they do at this point? If you trust the polls, McCain loses even if they carry every single undecided state at this point, so unless your strategy is "we don't believe the polls are accurate" the ONLY strategy at this point is to try to flip at least one blue state, and not just a tiny one. This could be done with an overall nationwide push as they seem to have been doing since the VP debate, or they could decide to concentrate on a state that's big enough to matter and where they think they might actually be able to pull it off. If the reports are accurate, they seem to have chosen this path and that PA is the state. <<< The attack ads have already proven ineffective, what else do that have to go with? >>> Well, that's a fundamental problem, isn't it? It's abundantly clear that running on the planks of their platform is not going to work. Although turning up the attack machine doesn't appear to have worked either, it's probably the best shot at this point. As a point of order, one has to wonder what's in their heads when they've concluded that running on their policy positions is not a winning strategy? Why not change the policies? It's almost as if they think their policies are the right ones even if it's obvious that most Americans disagree and they're going to try to do anything to get elected based on other factors and implement those policies anyway. Gee, isn't that what Rush and others have repeatedly accused the liberal elite of doing for years?
Originally Posted By chickendumpling << don't really see how they could manage to flip a blue state anyway. >> FOXnews did a piece on this. McCain's internal polling numbers are coming out differently than other polls so they think they can flip PA. I know I'm in the minority, I know it's nearly mathematically impossible but this ain't a done deal for Obama.
Originally Posted By RoadTrip I think he's counting on all of those racists in West Pennsylvania that Murtha was talking about to vote for him. :-\
Originally Posted By SuperDry <<< I'm not saying Obama can just roll over. >>> Obama, nor anyone who supports him, should most certainly NOT just roll over. No matter what the polls say, it's not a done deal until the polls close on Election Day. Many a campaign has faltered due to a false sense of complacency. How the electoral college turns out remains to be seen, but as far as nationwide popular vote, it's still going to be a close election. It's not like it's 60/40. As is the case with any close election, voter turnout is often the most critical thing when it comes down to the wire. It would be very dangerous for any Obama supporter to think that the election is in the bag at this point and risk some people not putting forth the effort to get to the polls on Election Day.
Originally Posted By Mr X ***But to respond directly to your comment, what else can they do at this point?*** Oh sure. I agree. If I were running the campaign though, I would go for broke..come out with a huge apology for all the negativity and pull down all the ads that have the name "Obama" in them (don't even ask Obama to do the same..just hope that he does)...make new, very inexpensive ones highlighting McCain's record and try and list some points where his presidency will be different from Bush's, and then run them in all the swing states from now til the 4th. I'm not saying it would work, but I think that'd be a better long shot than continuing what they've been doing.
Originally Posted By RoadTrip I don't really see any way McCain can win. I think this will go down in history as one of the all-time stupid campaigns. If McCain had chosen Pawlenty, Romney or Lieberman as Vice President he probably would be in a tight contest if not leading at this point. A strong position in the polls would have also kept him from going negative which has only made his position worse. Obama is a very flawed candidate. If McCain had run a half-way intelligent campaign he likely would have won. What the hell was he thinking?
Originally Posted By Mr X ***If McCain had chosen Pawlenty, Romney or Lieberman as Vice President he probably would be in a tight contest if not leading at this point. A strong position in the polls would have also kept him from going negative which has only made his position worse.*** I disagree. It doesn't matter WHAT he did at this point, since Wall Street essentially destroyed him.
Originally Posted By Mr X I do agree that his campaign has been terrible though..I just don't think it made any difference because of events that unfolded. Just like if (god forbid) there was another attack on America there wouldn't have been much Obama could've done about it, he'd have gotten buried. Sad that that's the way America rolls, but it is what it is.
Originally Posted By RoadTrip You may be correct. Although I think the Democrats have at least as much to do with the housing meltdown as the Republicans, they take the heat because they were in office when it happened. As you say... that is the way America rolls.
Originally Posted By Kar2oonMan >>What the hell was he thinking?<< Hey, I asked that when he picked Palin. But a lot of the Usual Suspects told me "It's over! McCain just won the election!" Remember the threads? Remember the excitement? Remember the magic?
Originally Posted By Mr X I disagree that the Democrats have at least as much to do with the housing meltdown..lack of transparency is a Republican game.
Originally Posted By Mr X ***But a lot of the Usual Suspects told me "It's over! McCain just won the election!" Remember the threads? Remember the excitement? Remember the magic?*** I remember the Pepto Bismol. Which is rather apt, don't you think? I'll be the McCain folks are drinking that stuff down like water these days!
Originally Posted By RoadTrip <<Remember the threads? Remember the excitement? Remember the magic?>> Sure. The convention was damned near electrifying. Then for some reason the McCain campaign decided they would not let Palin be Palin and it was all downhill from there. They made her appear more ignorant than I think she really is and took away everything that had initially made her a popular choice. As an aside… my wife, who HATES Palin, wanted to buy the Palin eyeglass frames. Then she discovered they cost $375. That was the end of that.
Originally Posted By Mr X ***They made her appear more ignorant than I think she really is*** Explain to me again what a 700 billion dollar Wall Street rescue plan has to do with health care reform?
Originally Posted By Kar2oonMan >>Then for some reason the McCain campaign decided they would not let Palin be Palin<< That's because they realized she wouldn't be able to withstand press interviews. Something that would have been apparent had they actually gone through the proper vetting process. But it all goes back to McCain choosing someone he did not know.
