Originally Posted By RoadTrip Not only Trump's success, but I think it applies to Bernie's unexpected success in Michigan last night. <<Donald Trump’s success in the GOP race is causing the Republican party to scratch their heads and fear the worst. And so far, no Republican has been able to understand why Trump is as successful as he is in this race. Theories have abounded in right wing circles that maybe they just need a more conservative candidate to jump into the race. Or surely if they funnel tens of millions of dollars into Rubio’s campaign, more people will fall in line. Or maybe they need a more logical candidate like John Kasich (R-Ohio). Or maybe people like Trump’s bullying, and if another candidate matches him, they’ll be successful too. But they’ve all been wrong, and no Republican has been able to look introspectively at the party and name what gives Trump huge popularity — until now. Tuesday morning on Morning Joe , former Republican lawmaker and host Joe Scarborough actually nailed exactly why Trump is so successful in this race — Reaganomics is an abysmal failure. For the last 30 years, Republicans have peddled an economic plan that only favors the rich, but with the promise that the wealth at the top would trickle down to ordinary Americans. Scarborough points out, though, that “it never trickles down.”>> Source: <a target="blank" rel="nofollow" href="http://news.groopspeak.com/joe-scarborough-nails-it-this-one-factor-is-causing-trumps-success-and-the-gop-to-split-video/">http://news.groopspeak.com/joe...t-video/</a>
Originally Posted By ecdc To add to that, here's maybe the best thing I've read so far on why Trump is successful: <a target="blank" rel="nofollow" href="http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/feb/24/donald-trump-victory-nevada-caucus-voter-anger">http://www.theguardian.com/com...er-anger</a>
Originally Posted By Kar2oonMan The open question now is if there are enough Democrats and independents that are so angry that they'd go for Trump in the general election. While the anger part of his appeal is spot on in the article above, you can't discount celebrity. I think much of Ronald Reagan's popularity came from his celebrity. He, too, benefitted from the country's anger, though he's worlds apart from Trump in so many ways.
Originally Posted By Dabob2 If it's Trump vs. Hillary, you'll have some Democrats voting for Trump, and you'll also have some Republicans voting for Hillary. The former has been well remarked on (by Trump himself, among others). The other hasn't been so much, but I think it would happen. I come from pretty much an old-school, Main Street Republican kind of family, believe it or not. And they won't vote for Trump. Quite a few prominent Republicans have said they will never vote for Trump, even if he's the nominee. Trump's unfavorability rating is up to 67 percent nationally (!). <a target="blank" rel="nofollow" href="http://townhall.com/tipsheet/guybenson/2016/03/08/unelectable-trumps-unfavorable-rating-spikes-to-67-percent-nationally-n2130349">http://townhall.com/tipsheet/g...n2130349</a> Yes, his true believers will be with him no matter what. But look at his ratings even with Republicans: "Republicans would overwhelmingly be satisfied with Cruz (+32), Rubio (+28), or Kasich (+23) at the top of the ticket. Trump? He's barely above water (+3), with one-third of the party faithful reporting that they'd be "very dissatisfied," if he's the nominee,more than double anyone else's negative tally on that point. This is a deeply polarizing and controversial figure within his own (current) party. Among voters broadly, he's a five-alarm dumpster fire: As Allahpundit notes, Trump is (-42) on the honesty metric, nearly twice as bad as Hillary Rodham Clinton. Think about that. And that's his best margin among these four characteristics. He's nearly 50 points (!) upside down on the 'presidential temperament' question." I can see a certain percentage of Republicans - and definitely a certain percentage of independents - deciding that they may not like Clinton that much... but she's the devil they know. Trump is too unpredictable, too unsteady, too impulsive, and too inexperienced (especially in foreign policy) and thus too dangerous to put in the White House. They will figure that Hillary would probably govern much as Bill did - which is to say, centrist. The economy did fine, we didn't get into any major wars, we actually balanced the budget and ran a surplus... so if she wouldn't have been their first choice by any means, they'll figure they can live with her, and try again in 2020. A safer bet than going with Trump. It will be a minority of Republicans who do this, of course. But it won't be zero. It will be fascinating to see which candidate gets the larger crossover. As polarized as we've become, I think those two candidates specifically would cause more crossover in November than we've seen in years.
Originally Posted By Kar2oonMan >>Trump's unfavorability rating is up to 67 percent nationally<< That's about the same percentage of people that also never bother to vote. (Kidding. A little.)
Originally Posted By skinnerbox Oh yeah. Let's put a QVC infomercial snake oil salesman in the White House: <a target="blank" rel="nofollow" href="http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/3/9/1498584/-Donald-Trump-gets-unlimited-air-time-to-lie-about-his-steak-and-water-brands">http://www.dailykos.com/storie...r-brands</a> <> Donald Trump really took the media’s obsession with him to the limit in his victory speech Tuesday night, droning on endlessly about how the Trump brands that Mitt Romney said had failed are alive and well. It was like a free infomercial for the Trump brand … except that Romney was right. Most of the products Trump was bragging about aren’t real products. Trump got time on multiple cable networks to rebut Romney’s charge that “Trump Steaks” had gone out of business. “We have Trump steaks. And by the way, you want to take one, we charge you about, what, 50 bucks a steak,” Trump insisted. Yeeaahhhh ... The only problem was, the steaks weren't actually Trump Steaks. In fact, they said Bush Brothers on them. Trump Steaks were sold through The Sharper Image, but not since 2007. His campaign apparently just rounded up some nice-looking steaks so he could lie about Trump Steaks still being a thing. Trump also touted his Trump-branded water, except he wasn’t showing off Trump Ice, which is indeed defunct. He was showing off water bottled by another company with a Trump label slapped on it to be served at Trump hotels and golf clubs. You know, the same as any event you’ve ever been to that had gotten water with personalized labels. I can’t stress enough that this speech was carried in its entirety, or close to it, by the cable news networks. Yes, Trump is the Republican presidential frontrunner, but at a certain point he’s also a man conducting an infomercial for products that don’t really exist. On a night when actual news is happening, it’s a good idea to cut away and cover that, instead. <> How can you tell Drumpf is lying? His lips are moving. Natch.
Originally Posted By Mr X ***Trump Steaks were sold through The Sharper Image*** He's a GENIUS I tell ya!
Originally Posted By Yookeroo I'm trying to follow the logic that being unhappy with trickle down makes one vote for Trump.
Originally Posted By Kar2oonMan >>His campaign apparently just rounded up some nice-looking steaks so he could lie about Trump Steaks still being a thing.<< Trump always seems very 80s to me anyway, so it's appropriate now to bring back "Where's the beef?"
Originally Posted By Kar2oonMan My favorite one was "We're gonna relaunch Trump University once the lawsuits are done." LOL! Good God in heaven, who would vote for this carnival barker???
Originally Posted By Mr X BTW, thank you RoadTrip for being the ONLY other guy to start a conversation around here in quite some time. I was starting to feel like old DarkBeer used to (except that I actually stick around in my topics and contribute more to the conversation than just a link and a duck). ;D Hey everybody else...start up some topics for discussion will ya!
Originally Posted By Dabob2 < His campaign apparently just rounded up some nice-looking steaks so he could lie about Trump Steaks still being a thing. Trump also touted his Trump-branded water, except he wasn’t showing off Trump Ice, which is indeed defunct. He was showing off water bottled by another company with a Trump label slapped on it to be served at Trump hotels and golf clubs. You know, the same as any event you’ve ever been to that had gotten water with personalized labels.> Yeah, that struck me as really, really bizarre. I mean, that's SO easily fact-checked. And while Trump's minions won't care, to everyone else it's just another drip-drip-drip that adds to the general sense that "this guy is full of it." He was just flat-out lying, and it shows him for the huckster/flim flam man he is (or "carnival barker" as 2oony well puts it). It's helping define him to the general electorate, and only doesn't seem to be hurting him because he keeps winning AMONG the GOP. It does hurt him moving forward - note his 67% disapproval rating among voters in general. <I'm trying to follow the logic that being unhappy with trickle down makes one vote for Trump.> Because all the OTHER Republican candidates are still selling the lie of trickle-down. Just cut taxes for the wealthy even more and we'll all magically benefit. It doesn't work and a lot of GOP voters have caught on to that by now. So if you're a GOP voter who has figured it out, Trump's your only choice. Trump is the only GOP candidate who varies (at least somewhat) from that orthodoxy, and is appealing directly to the frustrations of the (white) working class that 30 years of trickle-down have brought. The others are calling for more of it. And it's not selling. Cruz's support is mostly among social conservatives and evangelicals and has nothing to do with his economic message. Rubio is tanking. Kasich is trying to hold on as the "nice guy" but he's a trickle-down guy too and although he may win Ohio (which could be important in denying Trump an outright majority of delegates), he certainly doesn't have any path to getting a majority himself either. That's what Scarborough was talking about. Fewer GOP voters are buying into trickle down these days (finally!), but Trump is the only one who seems to have noticed. The others are still down with GOP orthodoxy.
Originally Posted By Yookeroo "Because all the OTHER Republican candidates are still selling the lie of trickle-down. Just cut taxes for the wealthy even more and we'll all magically benefit." But this is Trump's tax plan too. I think only Cruz has bigger tax cuts for the rich. Has Trump been campaigning agains trickle down? I really don't buy that the GOP voters are really finished with trickle down.
Originally Posted By Dabob2 I'm not defending Trump's tax plan. It's awful. But he almost never mentions it. It’s not so much that he’s running against it as that he’s not actively running on it. He’s hornswoggling his voters on other matters. To a lesser degree, so is Cruz (mostly social issues). They both favor trickle down, but haven’t made it anything like a centerpiece. Those who stressed it are mostly gone. The one who stresses it most among those remaining (Rubio) is arguably in the most trouble. Kasich does admit to favoring it when asked, but mostly is running on being the adult in the room these days. Scarborough’s point (and I agree it’s a point that only goes so far) is that the candidates who have stressed it least are currently running 1 and 2. And I do think there are more Republicans than there used to be who are saying “hey – when is this going to trickle down to ME?” Not as many as there should be, but more than there used to be. Republican orthodoxy is out of favor with a good slice of the GOP electorate, and that would very much include trickle down - and EVEN THOUGH TRUMP ACTUALLY FAVORS IT, it seems to many people like a vote for Trump sticks it to the GOP establishment. As I said on the other thread, it's not about logic or a coherent political philosophy - plenty of Americans just don't have one. Trump's candidacy is all about truthiness - it FEELS like he's rebelling against the establishment, even when he favors longstanding establishment policies.
Originally Posted By iamsally I am very angry about a LOT of things. *Trickle down* and union busting (basically all things Reagan) lost my husband his job of 14 years in the 80's. We are still suffering from that as it greatly affected his pension and SS. STILL, nothing that has happened would make me even dream of voting for Trump. Just sayin'
Originally Posted By Yookeroo "Republican orthodoxy is out of favor with a good slice of the GOP electorate," Maybe, but I'm seeing much anger at low taxes for the rich. It seems to be mainly social issues where the GOP electorate has its problems. That, and the GOP establishment isn't xenophobic enough. When someone starts (successfully) actively campaigning against trickle down I might start to believe this.
Originally Posted By Dabob2 Trump is going to start arguing against it, because he's for it. But unlike any Republican presidential front runner in recent memory, he isn't actively campaigning for it. That in itself represents a change of tone.
Originally Posted By Yookeroo Meh, still not buying it. If he were to start pushing his trickle down tax plan, it wouldn't cost him votes. It would be nice if the problem with the GOP is that their base is turning against stuff like this, but I don't see it at all. If the best evidence you have is that Trump isn't pushing it in his campaign, that's pretty weak sauce.
Originally Posted By Dabob2 First, it's not my theory, it's Scarborough's. I'm just saying I see where he's coming from. I think it is notable that Trump is running on completely different things than his predecessors, including being the only frontrunner since Reagan to NOT be blasting the gospel of supply side. Again, not because he doesn't support it, but because he knows it's not playing as well as it used to. I think that's fascinating. You're quite right that if he were to start emphasizing it, it wouldn't cost him votes among his acolytes. Seemingly, nothing he does costs him with them. But I do think it's notable that neither Trump nor Cruz, while both support trickle down, have been emphasizing it, and they're running 1 and 2. Those who did emphasize it are out or on life support. We're really on the same side here - I'm pointing out the cynical process is all.
