Originally Posted By Spirit of 74 This ain't gonna be a good day for Bob Iger, Jay Rasulo and company as first quarter numbers are announced. One major analyst expects a major drag due to theme park attendance dropping eight percent. This ought to be interesting ...
Originally Posted By Spirit of 74 They're predicting a 22% drop in revenues. And Jerry Levin is on with the talking heads on CNBC talking up Iger and the theme parks and how people 'still need to be entertained' as a country's economy collapses around them. Wonder if Bob paid him?
Originally Posted By dshyates $.45/share $9.6B They were expecting $.54/share 10.7B So their estimates were only a billion over.
Originally Posted By Spirit of 74 Actually, the analysts were predicting 51 cents according to CNBC. Still ... not good. Iger will be on at 8 tonight Eastern time to spin things as best as he can. He'll likely talk about how they can manage their costs ... which generally means 'forget about the magic, we'll be counting every individual french fry in your combo meal ... oh, and because of our Enviromentality campaign don't expect your $300 a night room's AC to cool the room beyond 80 degrees.'
Originally Posted By Spirit of 74 Just got my Marketwatch update, what a shock ... Disney shares are falling in after hours trading. I wonder if this means they'll have to cut the swag they're giving away for the AIE debut ... ;-)
Originally Posted By Sport Goofy Ah, the hyperbole . . . << They're predicting a 22% drop in revenues. >> Revenues were down 8%.
Originally Posted By Sport Goofy The really bad figure here is free cash flow. It was negative for the quarter. For all the armchair CEOs out there asking why Disney would be cutting back sharply now, this is why. This isn't a small recession. It's going to last for some time. And once cash flow turns negative, it only takes so long for it to run dry. This is why the spending has stopped. Now, the question is how long will the economy remain this sour? Another year? 2 years? 5 years? Does Disney have 5 years worth of cash on hand to ride it out?
Originally Posted By dshyates DVC is a cash cow. Just as soon as they sell all the DVC they have under construdtion they should be ass deep in cash. So everyone run out and buy a vacation condo before they run out. They only have 5 DVC Resorts coming on line this year so you better hurry.
Originally Posted By Sport Goofy << DVC is a cash cow. >> DVC was a cash cow. Celebration was a cash cow. Now, the bubble is burst. People are going to see how completely unprofitable the parks & resorts really are once you subtract real estate transactions from the mix. Real estate has been masking operational deficits at parks & resorts for over a decade.
Originally Posted By alexbook I've been trying to read through the news stories, and I'm wondering if there's any info on park attendance. I see where they say park revenue is down, but is that because fewer people are attending, or are the attendees spending less per person? Also, is there any sort of breakdown on the various parks? Sorry if the answer's obvious and I'm just not seeing it.
Originally Posted By dshyates Here is the Earnings Report: <a href="http://corporate.disney.go.com/investors/quarterly_earnings/2009_q1.pdf" target="_blank">http://corporate.disney.go.com...9_q1.pdf</a>
Originally Posted By -em Guess I shouldve bought more Ramen today... Least of all the stuff listed the parks arnt the black sheep- Looks like Studio Entertainment wins...
Originally Posted By dshyates "Revenues were down 8%." What I am seeing is net profit is down by 32% <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a32rh0PfwfZE&refer=home" target="_blank">http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/...fer=home</a>
Originally Posted By SuperDry <<< Revenues are generally more stable than profit. >>> But profit is what make the world go 'round when it comes to a publicly-traded company.
Originally Posted By dshyates Right, but Net Profit is an omen to where revenue is headed. If net profit remains in the -%32 neighborhood. Expect Revenue to drop like a rock as investors bail.
Originally Posted By SuperDry <<< Expect Revenue to drop like a rock as investors bail. >>> Why would revenue drop because investors are bailing?
Originally Posted By MPierce >> I've been trying to read through the news stories, and I'm wondering if there's any info on park attendance. I see where they say park revenue is down, but is that because fewer people are attending, or are the attendees spending less per person? Also, is there any sort of breakdown on the various parks? Sorry if the answer's obvious and I'm just not seeing it. << I can say for sure that attendance in the parks was down the 8 days I was there. I was only on 1 bus where people were standing, and that only lasted from WL to FW. I rode a bunch of buses, and boats while I was there. Another clear indicator was the lack of a crowd at the Libery Inn, and Electric Umbrella. Both were only about 1/3 full, and this was on Saturday night around 7:00pm. Week-ends appear busy, but the crowds are definetly down from previous years at this time.
Originally Posted By -em Looking quickly at the 1st quarter results from 05/06/07 if you compare 08 to 06- we are only slightly worse off than then- 2007 seems to be the anomaly in the data with a great performance in most if not all areas... I think the issue at least to me is that the people *are* here they just arnt spending the mass amounts they did last year...
Originally Posted By dshyates Because they create revenue by selling stuff. As their stock price tanks, they have less firepower in credit worthyness for creating product to sell. The will make less DVDs, toys, and all other consumer products. With less product to sell, revenue will decline.
