Originally Posted By X-san Anyone think so? If so, which of the two candidates is capable of pulling it off?
Originally Posted By dshyates I think McCain is gonna win with 75% of the popular votes In the states that use Diebold, Inc. electronic voting machines.
Originally Posted By DAR This is obviously designed with the idea that Obama is going to run away with this thing which could very well happen. But to use a sports analogy that's why you play the game(ie this year's Superbowl)
Originally Posted By DAR Is there really a reason to think different? Senator McCain is a good and honorable man but I think Bush has done some damage to him. But here's a newsflash McCain isn't Bush and the country will be all right if he's elected.
Originally Posted By SingleParkPassholder "But here's a newsflash McCain isn't Bush and the country will be all right if he's elected." DAr, at first I thought the same thing. But McCain seems to want this so bad he's willing to say and do anything, likely because his window is almost closed. If Kerry was a flip flopper, what is McCain becoming? Dizzy the Decider?
Originally Posted By SuperDry <<< If Kerry was a flip flopper, what is McCain becoming? >>> Kerry voted for the war funding, before he voted against it. McCain opposed the Bush tax cuts, before he was for them. <<< Senator McCain is a good and honorable man >>> Absolutely. I wish we had more people like him in office (not speaking for or against his policies, but to his honor). <<< but I think Bush has done some damage to him. >>> Some? Interestingly, when I saw McCain in person a few months ago during the primaries, he told the audience that unlike some candidates, he was not at all afraid to stand proudly with President Bush in public and get all the help he could provide. But, now that McCain has the nomination in the bag, he seems to be changing his tune a bit.
Originally Posted By RoadTrip I think the election will be very close, as most presidential elections for the past couple of decades have been. The electorate has become very divided and not many are going to be swayed to switch from one side to the other. Not all that much will change. Blacks, East Coast Intellectuals and West Coast moonbats will still vote for the Democrat. Born Againers, Southerners without much education and Westerners without much sense will still vote for the Republican. The election will be won in a handful of states. As in recent elections Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania will be huge. Obama has not shown much strength in these areas and will be very lucky to win one of the three. I support Obama and plan to vote for him. But if I had to bet a paycheck on the election I would bet on McCain. The electoral math just doesn't work well for Obama. The best realistic chance Obama has is to pick up states in the Upper Midwest that have typically gone to the Republicans. I think Obama has a realistic chance in North Dakota, South Dakota, Iowa, Nebraska and Kansas. All those states have a strong streak of populism running through them which could benefit Obama as you saw in the primaries. Wouldn't it be ironic if the white-bread Corn Belt of the U.S. ends up electing the nation's first Black President?
Originally Posted By ecdc >>The election will be won in a handful of states. As in recent elections Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania will be huge. Obama has not shown much strength in these areas and will be very lucky to win one of the three.<< In the latest polls, Obama was leading in all three of these states. Of course, a lot can happen in the next five months, but Obama definitely has a good shot in these states. In Pennsylvania, he was leading by 12 points; that's a tough gap to close (but again, it can certainly happen in 5 months).
Originally Posted By gadzuux I think the reason the last few presidential elections have been so close is that the GOP base rallied - in a way that they won't for mccain. Bush needed every single one of those votes from the christian block to barely squeak through - both times - and they're not fired up about McCain. At all. In 2000 and 2004, "sometime" voters were turned out en masse over hot-button wedge issues like flag burning, gays and 'values'. Those tricks won't work anymore - not that they won't try anyway. The GOP does not have a candidate that they're passionate about; the dems do. Obama can build a coalition of moderates, independents, blacks, youth, formerly disenfranchised first-time voters, and hopefully latins and women. McCain's got the elderly, the VFW, and the rural bumpkins. And arizona. I think when the election is over and obama is our new president, McCain is going to look back with some regret on how he damaged his own legacy at the end of an honorable life and career in public service. But that's life in the GOP - in the end they all walk away with their integrity compromised to some degree.
Originally Posted By ecdc >>and hopefully latins and women<< Well Obama will be campaigning with Hillary Clinton and Bill Richardson over the next few weeks. I think he'll definitely pick up a lot of those voters. This election feels different than 2000 or 2004. Both times you had candidates that independents had no reason to be very excited about. It was all about picking the lesser of two evils. The bases rallied around their guys, but even they weren't that fired up. The GOP wanted Bush to maintain, as gad pointed out, their tunnel-vision definition of "values." McCain doesn't offer that. Obama's a different kind of animal. He's someone a lot of people are looking forward to casting their ballot for. Not all independents are sold on him, sure. But enough are that it's going to make it mighty tough for McCain.
Originally Posted By SuperDry <<< Of course this is all speculation until each picks a running mate. >>> Absolutely. I know that for me, the VP pick on both sides will be a critical component in deciding who I vote for.
Originally Posted By BigJim89 RCP Electoral Count: <a href="http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=5" target="_blank">http://www.realclearpolitics.c...n/?map=5</a> Based on this I'd give the edge to Obama with his lead of 238-168. Thats not to say McCain can't win but he'd have to win over 107 of the 103 Toss ups electoral votes making it an uphill battle. Obviously this is based heavily on polls that may be inaccurate and the election is still months away, but I still believe this is a fun way to judge how the election might play out. Also Obama leads in the popular vote by around 5-6 percent but keep in mind that the newsweek poll acts as an outlier possibly skewing the results in Obamas favor. Still most polls give Barack a 3-4 pt. advantage. RCP Popular Vote Count: <a href="http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html" target="_blank">http://www.realclearpolitics.c...225.html</a>
Originally Posted By ecdc Very interesting. That definitely makes it tough on McCain. I know other groups are saying PA is a toss-up, but I don't see how it's a toss up with Obama leading by 12 in recent polls.
Originally Posted By DlandDug >>If so, which of the two candidates is capable of pulling it off?<< Well, rather obviously that would be Hillary. She has the name recognition, the organization, key endorsements in the largest states and the formidable appeal of her husband who will campaign relentlessly on her behalf. Her nomination is in the bag.
Originally Posted By mrkthompsn <Absolutely. I know that for me, the VP pick on both sides will be a critical component in deciding who I vote for.> Uh oh. I smell the word "gravitas" creeping around the corner.
Originally Posted By SuperDry ^^^ I actually had to look up the word, so I guess this means I learned something today. It's always good to expand one's vocabulary. I'm not quite sure what you mean by the comment, but I'm very serious in saying that I don't know who I'm going to vote for yet, and that the VP choice on both sides will be important to me. And I can't say that's ever been the case before.
Originally Posted By Dabob2 SuperDry, in 2000 when Bush picked Cheney, "gravitas" was the word of the week from all the pundits - you couldn't change the channel without seeing some pundit opining that Cheney gave the young and inexperienced Bush "gravitas." My guess is they've done "gravitas" and there will be a new buzz word this time around.
