thoughts on MTR box office?

Originally Posted By Jim

While I probably liked Meet the Robinsons more than most on this site (while not suggesting it is a fraction as entertaining as most other Disney features), I am curious to see what happens at the box office.

It would be great for WDFA to get a big hit, but if MTR isn't a big hit, then it's a better chance we'll get more 2D than CGI.

Of course, MTR's success or failure has little to do with CGI. In 2D, it would still be the same movie, just more pleasing to look at. But sometimes it works in your favor that Hollywood can't draw an accurate conclusion/analysis.

So, it looks like MTR will probably end up between BROTHER BEAR and CHICKEN LITTLE (perhaps in the HUNCHBACK range). If it hits $100 million, that will be impressive because the ad campaign was pretty bad, and it is, essentially, a kiddie movie in its scope and overall appeal.

Anyone have any more technical estimates of its box office projection. other thoughts?

 

Originally Posted By BlueOhanaTerror

I'm thinking it's chances of 110 million domestic are pretty good. We still have two more weekends before the big competing titles start to hit, and this film looks to have good legs.

And yes, you're right, given the anemic marketing scheme cooked up by Disney's strategy boys, that's pretty impressive. It grates to think what the film COULD have opened at, had they really gotten some talent behind promotion.

 

Originally Posted By belovedclassic

“â€And yes, you're right, given the anemic marketing scheme cooked up by Disney's strategy boys, that's pretty impressiveâ€â€
It seems they only get motivation from Pixar movies. Numbers… numbers, Do you remember the “Iron Giant†box office?
Brad Bird said concerning 2d/3d battle “The third dimension is marketing†Now, that´s very clear for us.

 

Originally Posted By mrichmondj

<< I'm thinking it's chances of 110 million domestic are pretty good. We still have two more weekends before the big competing titles start to hit, and this film looks to have good legs. >>

I doubt the film will break $100M. It's done well catering to the families on Spring Break vacations. Those vacations largely end today, and its not likely to see the same levels of success in the weeks ahead.

All that being said, box office doesn't mean quite the same as it used to. Studios care more about DVD sales to pay for their films than any other distribution line. Does box office translate directly into DVD sales?

 

Originally Posted By BlueOhanaTerror

Falloff this weekend from the previous weekend was 5% LESS (27% as opposed to 32%) than the falloff from MTR's first weekend to second.

The film's got some good legs.

 

Originally Posted By BlueOhanaTerror

>>>Does box office translate directly into DVD sales?<<<

Yes. A film that plays theatrically benefits DVD sales from the marketing campaign that accompanied it in the first place and created a consciousness in the public. Even those who "waited for DVD" came to know about the film in the first place from it's theatrical run.

And if the film shows some legs, more people talk about it, and word of mouth stimulates more interest. It also directly impacts on the number of copies the local rental houses will order to stack on shelves. If more copies are present, there is more of a "presence" for the local renting public, and they're more apt to pick it up, sensing this was a popular movie.

Same pretty much goes for retail sales - the retailers will afford more shelf/floor space if the film displayed a good run at the box office. We're going through this now on another project, actually. It's interesting, the dynamics that come into play.

 

Originally Posted By mrichmondj

I don't doubt the "legs," but you have to compare apples to apples. The past 2 weekends were holiday weekends with a lot of children out of school during the week. The upcoming weeks and weekends don't have the same flavor. Overall box office, regardless of the film, will be lower than what was seen for the past 3 weekends. Why do you think Disney released MTR when they did? Timing is everything.

 

Originally Posted By BlueOhanaTerror

>>>Why do you think Disney released MTR when they did? Timing is everything.<<<

Actually, I know exactly why they released it on the date they did... To shut down TMNT.

The original release date set by Warners for TMNT was March 30. That was set before Disney finalized their release date for MTR. A few days later, Dick Cook announced they would open on the same day, which made an awful lot of people angry over at Warners, TWC and the animation house creating TMNT for them, Imagi.

Eventually, Warners blinked, and moved TMNT up a week (which nobody wanted to do).

Your rhetorical question is answered simply "Spring Break" of course - but the specific date setting had much to do with killing the competition.

Still, this is the weekend past Easter and any real spring breaks, and MTR held up better, percentage-wise, than Blades of Glory. And for some reason, it's holding up worlds better than TMNT.

Could be because people simply like it more and are talking about what a "nice" film it actually is.



I guarantee you, the Turtles movie does not benefit from that sort of word of mouth. And that's the sort of film that SHOULD be seeing a helping hand from spring break, and it's been dropping precipitously (in the 55-60% range) from week to week.

 

Originally Posted By mrichmondj

I just assumed TMNT wasn't doing as well because it is a stale franchise that was played out years ago. I guess they were hoping to capitalize on folks having pleasant thoughts about a TV cartoon series that is over a decade old. It doesn't really matter how good of a movie they put on the screen, trying to market a played out franchise is always risky business.

 

Originally Posted By bobbelee9

BTW, this is school vacation week in Mass.

 

Originally Posted By gurgitoy2

Well, they have revied TMNT in the last several years, it's not jus this film. They had a new cartoon series, and were trying to get them going again. I don't think it had nearly the impact the original Turtles did, and this movie does seem to be out of left field, as most people associate the characters with the 90's and probably had no idea there was renewed effort over the last few years to revive the "franchise".

 

Originally Posted By BlueOhanaTerror

Just FYI on that "played out franchise"...

Turtles related Merchandise, every year for about the last ten years, has been bringing in over half a billion dollars.. the last three years preceding the movie, $600 million a year.

Granted, there have been many incarnations to this property, but no incarnation has ever risen to the potential in the concept... and this new movie didn't deliver... and that's what hurt it.

 

Originally Posted By Dlmusic

Well it looks almost certainly that MTR will not make $100 million.

That Pixar acquisition just keeps looking better.

 

Originally Posted By BlueOhanaTerror

>>>Well it looks almost certainly that MTR will not make $100 million.<<<

Actually, assuming it'll drop off around the rate it's dropping now (and it's been holding on better than just about any other film out there that's been out as long), MTR should break $100m around the last week of May.

Just the way it looks right now.

 

Originally Posted By DAR

Don't forget it still has to reach the dollar theatres, so 100 mil is very possible.

 

Originally Posted By BlueOhanaTerror

It did 3.5 million this last week alone (including the weekend) and is now up to $91.8 mill...

38 days in release, and still in the top ten. Very few movies this year that can boast that.

Had this film benefited from a better promotional campaign, it doubtless would have risen higher.

 

Originally Posted By jdub

>>Well it looks almost certainly that MTR will not make $100 million. That Pixar acquisition just keeps looking better. <<

Well, the acquisition I think IS good for Disney--but that opinion in no way slights "Meet the Robinson." I think the problem here has GOT to be a poor publicity effort.

My honest opinion? "Meet the Robinsons" was far superior to ANY of this past year's well-known Oscar nominees for Best Animated Film.

 

Originally Posted By basil fan

I'll agree with that, no contest.

Phil's Hero Rules
<a href="http://www.whatsitsgalore.com/disney/hero.html" target="_blank">http://www.whatsitsgalore.com/
disney/hero.html</a>

 

Originally Posted By Dlmusic

<<38 days in release, and still in the top ten. Very few movies this year that can boast that.>>

Where you place in the top ten means practically nothing. Just because it's a weak field doesn't mean the movie is doing better, you have to compare numbers.

Movies 41st day in 2007
Wild Hogs - $545,876
300's - $359,044
Bridge to Terabithia - $220,686
Blades of Glory - $175,693
Norbit - $155,058
Meet the Robinsons - $145,786
Ghost Rider - $117,450

As you can see, Meet the Robinsons is not doing anything that spectacular, especially considering it didn't open very large.

Unless it does extremely well overseas, Meet the Robinsons is a mild disappointment at least.

 

Originally Posted By mrichmondj

There also haven't been any family movies to really shift the screen count for MTR since it was first release. Expect Shrek the 3rd to take a big bite out of the MTR screen count, which will accelerate the box office decline. Up to this point, most theater operators have kept MTR on the roster as an option for family films. With Shrek and Pirates coming out, the screens for MTR will be taken away quickly.