Originally Posted By TomSawyer In Mark Halperin's latest column in Time, he explains why the Romney campaign is in trouble and why it's not likely to get better. <a href="http://thepage.time.com/2012/09/10/the-troubles/" target="_blank">http://thepage.time.com/2012/0...roubles/</a> Conventional wisdom (i.e. public opinion) is beginning to see that Romney didn't get any bounce from the Convention while Obama is enjoying one. Obama is raising more money than Romney from a wider number of people, which also supports the conventional wisdom that Romney doesn't have a broad base of support. Conventional wisdom also seems to be seeing Romney and Ryan as being unable to answer questions about their positions. And, as Halperin points out, Romney is an "unlikable, awkward candidate." What about all the money that the SuperPACs have? They might cut their losses with Romney and focus their spending on keeping as many GOP representatives and senators as they can. Romney is already suspending advertising in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Ohio, effectively conceding them to Obama. Romney has a very narrow path to victory, especially if he doesn't have Ohio. And it is beginning to look like Florida will support Obama. Without those two states, Romney's chance of an electoral college win is pretty much nil.
Originally Posted By andyll It seems Romney has already pulled adds from Michigan & Penn. My guess is the PACs will devote their money to winning the Senate.
Originally Posted By SuperDry <<< Romney is already suspending advertising in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Ohio, effectively conceding them to Obama. >>> Wow. According to the calculator on 270towin.com, which I seem to remember as being fairly even-handed and neutral from previous elections, the above three states are among the current 11 "undecided" swing states. If you give MI and PA to Obama, then it predicts a 92% chance of an Obama victory in the Electoral College. If you throw in OH as well, it goes up to 98%. Of course, as the site says, this is not really a prediction for the November election, but their best guess as to what would happen a) if the election were held today, b) based on the most recent polls.
Originally Posted By Dabob2 Has he really pulled advertising from Ohio? I haven't read that, and that seems unlikely. PA and MI I can see, but there's no math I've seen that works for Romney without Ohio.
Originally Posted By EdisYoda I live in Ohio, and as of this morning, at least, there were still ads.
Originally Posted By ecdc I can't fathom he's conceding Ohio. But this is just the point: Obama can lose most of the swing states and still win, while the exact opposite is true for Romney. Obama gets Ohio and, say, Iowa or New Hampshire, and he's done. He can lose Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, etc. Romney just doesn't have the same math. It's absolutely possible, just not as easy.
Originally Posted By hopemax My DH told me that he read Romney's internal polling numbers suggest he is dealing with a high single digit deficit in Ohio. So while he may not be ready to concede Ohio, it may take some sort of "game changer" for Romney.
