Originally Posted By Mr X I say this not because of the GOP clown show, which is as much a joke ASIDE from Trump as including the blowhard... What I'm seeing on the LEFT, though, makes me all but certain we'll be hailing to the orange chief sooner rather than later. On the leftwing sites, Hillary is half-despised (or more), and they're all joking about how easy Trump will be to beat. The lack of enthusiasm is palpable. Since the right wing has been whipped into an angry frenzy, there's little chance that they will skip this vote. Not so on the other side. Will the middle decide this election as usual? Somehow I don't think so (or at least an equal number of them will reject Hillary out of hand). Am I wrong? Any chance that that obnoxiously racist, self-centered shithead WON'T be our next (and decidedly worst!) president?
Originally Posted By Dabob2 I've seen credible analyses that say that if Trump can't pull a higher percentage of Hispanics than Romney did, that that alone dooms his chances. That alone costs him Florida and Virginia, for example. And does anyone think Trump is going to even do AS well with Hispanics as Romney? This analysis assumes that reliably blue states (i.e. the ones not considered swing states like NY, CA, MA, et al) stay blue. Trump insists he can take NY, for instance, but I think he's dreaming. Go to <a target="blank" rel="nofollow" href="http://www.270towin.com/">http://www.270towin.com/</a> There you'll see a map where they've colored the generally accepted reliably blue states (217 electoral votes) and the reliably red ones (191). If you click on any of the brown (swing) states, you can turn it red or blue depending how many times you click, and see the new total. Turn FL and VA blue, and the Democrat is up to 259. Which means he/she would need only ONE more large state or a couple of smaller ones. He she could win Ohio OR Penn. OR Colorado plus NH. OR Wisconsin plus (heavily Hispanic) Nevada. Now, again, this assumes reliably red and blue states stay that way, and that Trump's problems with Hispanics really do cost him FL and VA. But if these things are true, it's at least possible to feel better (if a long way from certain) about the Democrat's chances. Come in off that ledge, Mr. X.
Originally Posted By Kar2oonMan Anything can happen, and Trump got knocked around a bit in last night's debate. He came off very childish, which is nothing new, but he seemed caught off guard and didn't have great answers. That said, I am astonished that it really does look like Trump can go all the way. I don't know that Hillary can do enough to fight off the onslaught of negative stuff that will be headed her way. Emails, Benghazi, on and on. And the largest threat is that once Bernie is out, will his supporters bother to vote at all?
Originally Posted By Kar2oonMan I'm on the ledge next to Mr. X. I'd *like* to believe the expert analysis, but the experts have been saying Trump's almost done since last August. I'm not comforted much by stats like "no one ever won without ___________ before." The vibe in this country is very weird. The smartest people don't seem much interested in politics, and young people aren't reliable voters. Angry people you can count on. They will show up early and often. That's why I'm booking the spare room at Mr. X's place in Japan in November. ; )
Originally Posted By Kar2oonMan And now Chris Christie has endorsed Trump. Once a slime ball, always a slime ball.
Originally Posted By Dabob2 The best lack all conviction, while the worst Are full of passionate intensity I get it. I'm not saying I'm not worried at all. I just feel better looking at the electoral map. And consider this: until last night's food fight (which it really was), nobody ever really took on Trump like that. Bush tried at times but came off so milquetoast. And every time any candidate or superpac tried to take on Trump on the airwaves, Trump bullied them and made them back down - hurting the attacker more than Trump. But that's because at the point that there were 15 candidates, they all hoped to attract Trump's supporters after the (they thought) inevitable flameout. The Democrat (and left-leaning superpacs) will be under no such constraints. There is a LOT to attack Trump for, and so far he's been getting away largely scot-free because the other Republicans have until recently been too timid to go after him. Neither Clinton nor Sanders will be, I don't think. Nor will the superpacs - and Lordy, I could write those ads myself, about all the crap Trump has done over the years. And sure, he'll go after them too. But there are a LOT of chinks in his armor they can exploit. It's going to be an ugly race, but it wouldn't be the Full On Attack (Trump) followed by wimpy counterpunches (GOP opponents so far). The Democrat should be able to puncture a lot of Trump's balloons. And maybe even eat his fruit salad. Note that I'm not saying it won't be close, or that enthusiasm won't be necessary on the Democratic side. It absolutely will be. But (assuming it's Clinton), I think Bernie will offer full-throated support and get his people to the polls to vote for her. He may have issues with Hillary, but it actually hasn't been as nasty a fight as Obama/Clinton, and the Clintons supported Obama wholeheartedly from the convention on. Bernie may have issues with Clinton, but he also knows what the alternative would be, and I think he'll tell his supporters to support her very strongly. <And now Chris Christie has endorsed Trump. Once a slime ball, always a slime ball.> Indeed.
Originally Posted By Kar2oonMan Trump supporters don't seem to care about any of the numerous skeletons in his closets. He's always been so public and obnoxious that people are used to it. He's insulted Latinos. He's insulted Muslims. He's said insulting, outlandish things from day one. None of it matters. In fact, things that would have ended a political career just a couple years ago instead seem to fuel his popularity. I think it's a stretch to hope that suddenly Trump supporters will wake up and realize how completely terrible he is. And I sure can't imagine any of them deciding to vote for Hillary instead. Americans hate being told what to do, even if it's in their best interest. Many will do the opposite just for the sake of it. Just to prove the experts wrong. Combine it with the hate the GOP still has for the Clintons, and it will get very ugly. That's why I'm not optimistic.
Originally Posted By Dabob2 <Trump supporters don't seem to care about any of the numerous skeletons in his closets. He's always been so public and obnoxious that people are used to it. > Absolutely. The question is: are Trump supporters a majority of the country. I don't think so. You're absolutely right that nothing is going to budge his acolytes, short of it coming out that he forced one of his mistresses to have an abortion and then sold the tissue to Planned Parenthood personally. And even that might not do it. But how big a percentage of the populace are those people? That's what nobody knows. So far, they've been about 40% of the Republican electorate, which is itself less than half the electorate. Is anyone voting in the Democratic primaries going to vote for him? I don't think so. Now, that race IS drawing fewer people than the Republican primaries so far, and that is worrisome. The opposite was true in 2008. So it probably comes down to independents and that's the big unknown. I think many of them COULD be suitably disturbed by the idea of Trump as president. I think many of them may not like Hillary, but would be loathe to take the chance on someone as unstable as Trump. Especially if Clinton (and her surrogates) attack him in a way that his supporters will brush off but independents wouldn't. Maybe I'm wrong. But I look again at the electoral map. If the analysis is correct that 30% or less of the Hispanic vote costs you Florida and VA (and I would assume Nevada too), then Hillary really needs only one more swing state, while Trump would need to run the table. I could totally be wrong though. I get the concern, believe me.
Originally Posted By Kar2oonMan >>But how big a percentage of the populace are those people?<< I hope not many. And caucuses are an odd way to vote as well, so who knows. But I worry that in this country, celebrity is very important. And Trump is a celebrity. It confounds be that Kim Kardashian is an empire, making tens of millions a year, even though she is famous for being famous and many people can't get enough. We have celebrated the dumb and the obnoxious for so long via reality (with the once legit news media joining in the circus, too) that I don't know if people tackle the big questions in their minds anymore. Gross, crude, loud sells. Simple sells. Quiet and thoughtful do not. Longform answers get played off by the orchestra who want to cut to the chase. People seem to want simple solutions to complex problems. And Trump offers that. I hope I'm wrong. I keep reminding myself that Obama won 2 elections in spite of people saying it couldn't be done. So there's that.
Originally Posted By Kar2oonMan And lastly, Between Trump, Rubio and Cruz, Trump is the lesser of evils to me. I think he would be terrible for the country, but I also think a lot of the crap he is spewing now is canned red meat designed to pull in support. At least, that's my hope. His statements in the past are all over the map, and he clearly is not a religious nut, which is not something I can say about Cruz and Rubio. Trump is probably socially liberal at the very least. And more than anything, he wants popularity and attention. If elected, my guess is that he would be fairly centrist on actual policy, able to get the right to accept things they never would from Hillary.
Originally Posted By EighthDwarf ^^I totally disagree. Trump, to me, is way more dangerous. He reminds me a lot of Putin. He thinks he can do anything. As president, he would have the power to piss off, well, everyone. He has already committed to trade wars with Mexico and China. The guy is an egomaniac and is capable of who knows what. The other two may associate with extremists on the right, but they are career politicians and have campaigned against executive orders. They at least are more likely to act within a constitutional framework. Remember, Republicans have to swing right in order to win the nomination, and Cruz and Rubio certainly have. But they are as likely to abolish abortion and gay marriage as Obama was to implementing universal healthcare and taking away everyone's guns. Trump, on the other hand, is actually capable of doing tremendous damage to our economy and our reputation as a nation. In fact, he already has. Just look at what leaders outside the U.S. are already saying about him. Add to that his pledge of further pissing off other nations and you have a recipe for disaster. Trump is an ego maniacal madman. He is far and away the most dangerous of all of them.
Originally Posted By Mr X ***That's why I'm booking the spare room at Mr. X's place in Japan in November. ; )*** Another patron at XBnB. Excellent. You'll help me iron out all the kinks in time for the Olympics. Don't forget to remove your shoes. Er, wait. K2M, right? On second thought, don't forget to WEAR your shoes at all times!
Originally Posted By Mr X ***So it probably comes down to independents and that's the big unknown. I think many of them COULD be suitably disturbed by the idea of Trump as president. I think many of them may not like Hillary, but would be loathe to take the chance on someone as unstable as Trump*** Dabob, while you make many rational and valid points, MY concern is that the middle will be disgusted by BOTH candidates and stay home. I mean, heck even half the DEMOCRATS seem to hate her, and that's saying something! So left with choosing between a turd sandwich and a giant douche, do they actually bother to come out at all? Like I said earlier, if "the base" is the only whipped up bunch, they could just run away with things if everyone else gives up. That's the feeling I'm getting here. I do hope I'm wrong! ***I've seen credible analyses that say that if Trump can't pull a higher percentage of Hispanics than Romney did, that that alone dooms his chances. That alone costs him Florida and Virginia, for example. And does anyone think Trump is going to even do AS well with Hispanics as Romney? This analysis assumes that reliably blue states (i.e. the ones not considered swing states like NY, CA, MA, et al) stay blue. Trump insists he can take NY, for instance, but I think he's dreaming*** Right. Thing is, I'm worried that "conventional wisdom" won't hold. For example, Obama got a HUGE turnout of black folks, right? Will Hillary be able to come close to that? And Romney got a bigger percentage of "pissed off whites" than Obama (something I'm still inwardly ashamed of as a white guy!), but they didn't really *like* him all that much. Those same troglodytes WORSHIP Trump, apparently living vicariously through his bullying, alpha-male posturing like they wish they could get away with. *sigh* <---peers over ledge, settles in for a long perch.
Originally Posted By Dabob2 "and have campaigned against executive orders. " Well, they campaign against Obama's executive orders. Bush actually issued more than Obama has, and they didn't make a peep about them. They certainly wouldn't issue a peep about their own. I understand your concerns about Trump and share them, but I still come back to Cruz belonging to that apocalyptic sect. That makes him the scariest to me. In the end, it's kind of like Alien versus predator, though. Both pretty dang scary. And X, all your worries about the middle not showing up and the far right being more enthusiastic are worries that I share. That's why I say I don't know. I could absolutely see Trump being elected. That's why I also say we need to continue to work. Which is why we can't be out on the ledge!
Originally Posted By Kar2oonMan The Trump Outrage Du Jour: The Orange One says he will "open up libel laws" if elected so that he can go after journalists who write negative articles about him. I think he's confusing the whims of a king vs. the duties of a president.
Originally Posted By skinnerbox Trump stupidly believes there are dozens of legal avenues that he can exploit as President, which are patently false on their face. Suing journalists for libel is but one of them. Even though I can easily see Trump getting the nomination without a brokered convention, I still don't see him winning the election for several reasons, the main one being that only 30% of the country represents the vast overwhelming majority of his base: white guys. Trump has not gained much support from minorities, especially Latinos and women. He speaks to the angry middle-aged white working class male, and virtually no one else. Just look at his support rallies. His flying monkeys have to work overtime to find anyone of color to put behind him on the stage. A sweeping camera pan shows nothing but a sea of white guys plus a few white women and a handful of Latinos. There is virtually ZERO diversity among his supporters, which is a critical requirement for national elections. For Trump to win, the Dems would have to either stay home or switch allegiance in droves. Like on the order of 20%. And given how easily Obama beat Romney, who had far more minority support than Trump enjoys, that's going to be difficult to pull off. For every KKK rally held in Trump's name, for every celebrity racist endorsement he receives, for every lie he tells proven to be blatantly false, Trump loses the swing voter. And without those swing voters, especially minority swing voters, I don't see how he can win.
Originally Posted By FerretAfros >>the main one being that only 30% of the country represents the vast overwhelming majority of his base: white guys.<< And even of that 30%, I don’t think he has anywhere near a majority. His supporters have been loyal, but it’s hard to ignore that his numbers haven’t increased a whole lot while the field has been whittled down around him. It seems like everybody else is still trying to make up their mind on which of the other candidates they prefer, while his supporters made their minds up early and aren’t doing much to win anybody over Other than his handful of vocal supporters, I just don’t see most of the GOP supporting him. If he wins the nomination, I think this could be the year where a third party candidate could actually put up some decent numbers (though I can’t think of who that person might be at this point, since none of the other options seem especially popular either)
Originally Posted By RoadTrip Never say never, but I see virtually no chance of a Trump presidency. He may well get the Republican nomination. Others are starting to turn on him but I'm afraid it is too little, too late. The semi-rational candidates should have turned on him earlier instead of trying to knock each other out. But I don't ever see a President Trump. I think you will see that support for Hillary is broader and deeper than you suspect. She handed Bernie's butt to him is SC tonight. She won every category of voter... race, education, income, gender, political leaning. The ONLY group she lost was voters under 30. Hillary would hand Trump's butt to him in a general election.
Originally Posted By Mr X ***I think you will see that support for Hillary is broader and deeper than you suspect*** I tend to think this may be true. Even for those who don't particularly care for her (you could probably include me in that bunch, honestly speaking), I think most non-extremists would trust her not to screw up too badly as president - that's something I think NONE of the Republican frontrunners have to offer. Funny thing is, out of all the Republican frontmen in recent history, the ONLY one I personally felt nervous about the way I do with CruzTrumpRubio was George W. (and I was damned right about it, too!) - I didn't particularly care for Romney, McCain, Bush Sr., or Bob Dole, but I never felt like any of them would screw up the nation (don't get me started on Ray-Gun though).
Originally Posted By Kar2oonMan When McCain picked loony tunes Palin, I was very nervous. I thought it was the low water mark for the GOP. Wrong. If anything undoes Trump, it will be his ever-running mouth. Perhaps there are even some moderate Republicans who would be principled enough to vote Democrat this time, if it meant not voting for a racist like Trump.
