Originally Posted By Mr X Okay, let's play a little game... Clinton vs. Rubio = Clinton Clinton vs. Trump = Clinton Clinton vs. Cruz = Clinton Sanders vs. Rubio = Rubio Sanders vs. Cruz = Cruz (ugh...this one hurts!) Sanders vs. Trump = Sanders Your picks? (feel free to add in candidates I've passed over...while I think these five are the "likelies" at this point, anything can happen)
Originally Posted By oc_dean It's amazing how Trump got this far ... but to make the next hurdle - I doubt he'll make it.
Originally Posted By Mr X OC, Nate Silver (aka the "campaign whisperer") puts Trumps odds of making it even as far as the nomination at 2%... <a target="blank" rel="nofollow" href="http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trumps-six-stages-of-doom/">http://fivethirtyeight.com/fea...of-doom/</a>
Originally Posted By Dabob2 Worth noting that that article is kinda old. As of today, Nate gives Trump a 70% chance of winning NH and a 57% chance of winning SC. Things change fast. Just a few days ago I'd have said Rubio came out of NH with a solid second, the establishment coalesced behind him, and although Trump and Cruz did well in the southern primaries, Rubio did well enough there to hang in, and then sensible midwesterners later in the cycle decided Rubio was more electable than either the clown or the prick. It still may play out that way. But after Rubio's terrible debate on Saturday, I'm not so sure he comes in second in NH, for starters. I think Kasich or even Bush probably outperforms expectations and muddles everything even further. Which may mean Trump's very committed supporters give him pluralities in a lot of states, with others splitting the vote. My guess is still Rubio as the guy vaguely acceptable to both tea partiers and "moderates" (though he himself isn't all that moderate). So Rubio vs. Clinton, which is a tough call. I think he and Kasich are the toughest general election matchups for her.
Originally Posted By SingleParkPassholder I have to say, if Michael Bloomberg's wiki page is an accurate representation of him, I hope he decides pretty quickly here to run. His views seem to almost mirror mine. Dabob? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Bloomberg
Originally Posted By Dabob2 Bloomberg was a decent mayor. I didn't like him sort of forcing through a repeal of term limits so he could have a third term, but other than that, he was fine. He's moderate, he's an adult; not perfect, but I could live with him as president. I'm pretty sure he'll only run if he really thinks he can win, and he's smart enough to understand how difficult that would be as a third-party candidate, little known outside NY. He's hinted pretty strongly that he'll only run if it's Sanders for the Democrats (as he thinks Clinton has broad enough appeal to win in the General), AND Trump or Cruz for the GOP. (Or someone who would also make a terrible president, like Carson or some of the others who have already dropped out but were still in when Bloomberg started musing about it.) Not sure what he'd do if it was Sanders and Rubio, but my hunch is that even if it was Sanders and Trump/Cruz, it's not a slam dunk that he runs. He'd have to see a clear path for himself and feel widespread dissatisfaction with the major party choices.
