Originally Posted By Mr X The fact that Clinton seems to be enjoying the lion's share of black votes is something that kind of stumps me. Is it really that she (or the coattails of Bill?) is so very popular with black voters? Or is Bernie just that disliked? And if so, why? I have a few theories (most of them fairly disturbing), but I'll hold off until I've read a few thoughts other than my own. I really am flummoxed by this, and I think it's a real danger to the Democrats if he wins but still can't fix it before November.
Originally Posted By RoadTrip Partly it is Bill's coattails. Partly it is because Clinton has been involved in the Black community pretty much her entire life. Outside of his years as a college activist I don't know that Sanders has. No need to worry about how Sanders would attract Blacks in the general election. There is no way he will ever be there.
Originally Posted By ecdc Here's why, from a black voter: https://www.reddit.com/r/OutOfTheLoop/comments/48kyzj/why_are_black_americans_voting_for_hillary/d0kv5pf (Read it, it's very good and very illuminating.)
Originally Posted By RoadTrip Making it easy for those who don't like to copy and paste. <a target="blank" rel="nofollow" href="http://www.reddit.com/r/OutOfTheLoop/comments/48kyzj/why_are_black_americans_voting_for_hillary/d0kv5pf">http://www.reddit.com/r/OutOfT.../d0kv5pf</a>
Originally Posted By Dabob2 That's a very interesting link, and I would add something else to it my black friends have told me - the Obama connection itself. Don't forget that Obama's approval rating in the black community is very high. Hillary offered full-throated support to Obama in 2008 after a bitterly contested campaign, at a time when some of her more die-hard supporters were urging her not to. She did anyway, that mattered in the general election, and it was much appreciated. Then, of course, she became SOS under Obama, and the two appeared to have a good working relationship. More recently, while remaining officially uncommitted, Obama himself (obliquely) and some of this admin. officials less obliquely, have hinted at the very least that they prefer that Hillary gets the nomination.
Originally Posted By hopemax I'd guess it's a matter of familiarity (or lack there of) and assumptions. For so long, Sanders was just that "crazy socialist from Vermont." I don't think anyone would think Vermont is a microcosm of America. So I would guess black people don't think that he would "get" their issues as much as the known commodity of the Clintons. And I'm also not sure how "serious" of a candidate Sanders ever intended to be vs just wanting a platform while the floor was open. If there were any other real Democratic challengers, he would have been relegated to crazy guy from Vermont status earlier. He sort of stumbled into a real bid by being the only real challenger. But it means he probably didn't worry about doing certain, necessary things, not only for this election cycle but over the course of his career (no one would say the Clinton ambitions weren't obvious 20, 30, 40 years ago). So the outreach mentioned on the reddit post becomes more of an issue. Sanders isn't going to win the nomination. However, given the bigger fight than expected and considering last time everyone thought it would be Hillary and Obama's time would come after, and that got flipped around, I think it shows that the GOP isn't the only party heading toward a reckoning. It seems like there are a lot of progressives that don't think the political establishment "gets" their issues either. They may be "nicer" about it. Getting silent instead of getting angry. But a political system so divorced from the populace on both sides, is a powder keg waiting to happen.
Originally Posted By Dabob2 <And I'm also not sure how "serious" of a candidate Sanders ever intended to be vs just wanting a platform while the floor was open. If there were any other real Democratic challengers, he would have been relegated to crazy guy from Vermont status earlier. > I'm not so sure. Maybe in other years, but not in this one. Sanders appeals to many of the same disaffected voters that Trump has tapped into: largely white, working class (plus young idealists for Sanders), who feel like the system is rigged. There's a surprising amount of overlap - many Trump voters have said their second choice is Sanders (!). Both position themselves as outsiders (despite one being in politics for decades and the other being born with a silver spoon), and are highly critical of trade agreements that they say have sent jobs overseas. In other ways they diverge of course - and Sanders says Wall Street and the 1% are to blame, while Trump encourages blaming non-whites, especially immigrants. But in a year with widespread distrust of "the establishment" and dissatisfaction especially in the white working class, Sanders was going to find a constituency. And it wasn't like O'Malley, for instance, wasn't a credible candidate. In fact, I'm kind of surprised he didn't gain more traction. Not that I thought he'd gain THAT much, but I was surprised he never got above 3 or 4 percent - he was articulate, attractive, a governor... all those things that usually matter. But this year it was the known-and-highly-qualified Clinton vs. the most credible anti-establishment guy, and that took shape remarkably early and never changed.
Originally Posted By hopemax I consider myself a fairly knowledgeable person, but I still don't know anything about O'Malley. I couldn't tell you his first name, couldn't tell you which state he is from. Nothing.
Originally Posted By Dabob2 That's because he never got any traction, and thus never got any media attention. Or vice versa. That's always a chicken and egg thing.
Originally Posted By Yookeroo "Sanders appeals to many of the same disaffected voters that Trump has tapped into: largely white, working class" Do you have any evidence of this? I'm skeptical.
Originally Posted By Mr X Interesting feedback all. Thanks! ***No need to worry about how Sanders would attract Blacks in the general election. There is no way he will ever be there.*** You're probably right. Then again, this election season has been nothing if not unpredictable. I'm sure every single one of us would've said the same of Donald Trump just a few months ago (and it still seems as though powerful forces are acting against him, but on the other hand he's damned close at this point). Not saying it's likely. But Hillary is VERY unlikable (recent comparisons to Nurse Ratched seem apropos), and I think the more she debates, the worse she seems. If she implodes badly enough, soon enough, then Sanders steps up to the plate for real (now, whether or not Trump would crush him is another question to ponder).
Originally Posted By Mr X ***"Sanders appeals to many of the same disaffected voters that Trump has tapped into: largely white, working class" Do you have any evidence of this? I'm skeptical.*** I've seen this bandied about as well, and it seems very hard to believe. I guess perhaps if you just chalk it up to "white males" and add frustration to the mix, it might seem like the same crowd, but somehow I think there's an important demographic split there they're just not seeing. Sanders inspires me. Trump makes me want to puke. I know some right wingers who want to puke when they hear what Sanders has to say. Hard to imagine ONE person could see BOTH diametrically opposed philosophies and say "hey, I like THOSE TWO GUYS!".
Originally Posted By Dabob2 <<"Sanders appeals to many of the same disaffected voters that Trump has tapped into: largely white, working class">> <Do you have any evidence of this? I'm skeptical.> The exit polls are pretty clear. In MI, that's how Bernie won. Clinton took the black vote by a wide margin as usual. Bernie took the white vote, including the working class lower income white vote. While Trump did the same on the GOP side. <Hard to imagine ONE person could see BOTH diametrically opposed philosophies and say "hey, I like THOSE TWO GUYS!".> I know it seems counterintuitive. But it has been documented pretty well at this point. The biggest point of overlap is trade agreements and outsourcing jobs overseas. Both Trump and Bernie talk about this a lot. Sanders opposed NAFTA, while Clinton endorsed it (at least tacitly, since she was first lady at the time). That counted for a lot in MI especially. Clinton sees which way the wind is blowing and now opposes TPP, but Sanders can say quite correctly that he opposed it from the beginning. Trump likewise is always saying things like "these trade deals are killing us. I'll make better deals." No evidence he could, but that's his selling point. And so we've seen for months now the overlap, especially of white voters with manufacturing jobs (or who used to have them) that they like what both Trump and Sanders are saying. Of course, they're saying very different things about a lot of other topics, but if trade/outsourcing is your #1 issue, that may not matter. And/or how you feel on other issues may decide which way you tip: if you're a longtime blue collar Democrat who believes in unions and tends to look at the 1% with skepticism, you probably choose Bernie. If you're blue collar Republican (or "Reagan Democrat") who is quicker to blame immigration, you probably choose Trump. But there is definitely overlap, strange as that might seem. A brief overview: <a target="blank" rel="nofollow" href="http://www.npr.org/2016/02/08/465974199/what-do-sanders-and-trump-have-in-common-more-than-you-think">http://www.npr.org/2016/02/08/...ou-think</a>
Originally Posted By Yookeroo "The exit polls are pretty clear." No they're not. Bernie is just barely edging Hillary on the trade issue in a state where the issue is pretty important: <a target="blank" rel="nofollow" href="http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2016/03/was-trade-secret-sauce-bernie-sanders-michigan-win">http://www.motherjones.com/kev...igan-win</a> I'm not buying that there's a lot of overlap with Bernie & Trump supporters.
Originally Posted By Dabob2 So the Washington Post says that's why he won, and Mother Jones says "Maybe, maybe not" while acknowledging a 17 point gap for Sanders among those who think trade deals take away US jobs - which just so happens to be about the amount of poll gap he made up in the last days. There IS overlap between Trump and Sanders voters, strange as it may seem at first glance. There's the trade thing, and there's the "outsider" thing (I use quotes, because neither really is). And this has been noted for a while: <a target="blank" rel="nofollow" href="http://www.thestreet.com/story/13431907/1/who-do-undecided-voters-prefer-trump-or-sanders-sounds-crazy-but-here-s-why.html">http://www.thestreet.com/story...why.html</a> " Who Do Undecided Voters Prefer? Trump or Sanders. Sounds Crazy but Here's Why By Leon Lazaroff Follow | 01/31/16 - 12:40 PM EST 1 Editors' Pick: Originally published Jan. 26. Interviewing a roomful of undeclared voters recently, Neil Levesque, executive director of Saint Anselm College's New Hampshire Institute of Politics, asked which presidential candidate they were most likely to support when the state holds the country's first primary in two weeks. The majority of these New Hampshire voters, he said in a phone interview from Manchester, cited the Republican real estate developer, Donald Trump. Their second choice? Bernie Sanders, the self-styled social democratic senator from Vermont. "These two people have completely different views on every issue, so why are they your first and second choice," Levesque asked rhetorically. "And they will tell you, because they're not the same old thing, they're going to break up the system, they're outsiders -- we're sick of the same old political stuff." (And while I still contend neither one is truly an outsider, "shaking up politics as usual" is a little more credible - and people ARE sick of what they see as politics as usual, and both tap in to that from different directions.) Also: "They divide along a line seldom acknowledged in US discourse: class. Sanders draws strong support from graduates and students, whereas most of Trump’s followers are on low incomes and did not go to university. One hammers Wall Street, the other demonises immigrants, but both are perceived as authentic and unspun, right down to their oddball hair. They are two sides of the same coin. Neil Levesque, executive director of the New Hampshire Institute of Politics at Saint Anselm College, said: “I talk to many people whose first choice is Trump and second choice is Sanders, even though they’re diametrically opposed. People feel Trump is saying what they think, and if you asked supporters of Sanders, one word they would use is ‘authenticity’. A lot of this is the Tea Party and Occupy Wall Street. Those were the seeds and now the grass is growing.”" Note that I'm NOT saying their policies are similar or anything like that. I'm saying that a certain slice of the fed-up electorate would rather vote for an "outsider" "shaking things up" than adhere to any sort of coherent political philosophy. Let's face it - there are lots of Americans who simply don't have one.
Originally Posted By hopemax I can definitely see how Sanders and Trump are pulling from the same "pool." However, everyone in that pool is not the same. Trump is getting the older voters who believe they are in the pool because of: social changes (immigrants, gays, atheists), globalization etc. Sanders is getting younger folks who believe they are in the pool because: the system is rigged, globalization, etc. The feeling of discontent is the same, but the blame is different. They both say, "We know you are frustrated with the status quo." As much as conservatives made fun of "hope and change," that's what they are banking on with Trump.
Originally Posted By Kar2oonMan >>The feeling of discontent is the same, but the blame is different. They both say, "We know you are frustrated with the status quo." As much as conservatives made fun of "hope and change," that's what they are banking on with Trump.<< Yep, very well said.
Originally Posted By skinnerbox Listening to Michelangelo Signorile's radio show yesterday, one of Trump's supporters called in to put forth his two cents. Michelangelo asked him why he was a Trump supporter, and the first thing out of the caller's mouth was, "He doesn't take special interest money." Michelangelo cut him off right then and there, telling the caller, "He doesn't have to take special interest money because he IS special interest. He's a billionaire. He IS special interest." BINGO! How clueless are the Trump supporters to not realize that the "bought and paid for" politicians they now hate so much, are BOUGHT AND PAID FOR BY PEOPLE LIKE TRUMP! The whole conversation with the caller got ugly pretty quick. The guy refused to identify Trump as a "special interest" simply because he was a billionaire. The guy believed that Trump using his own money to become a politician was a good thing, unlike the other politicians who take campaign dollars from billionaires like Trump. Michelangelo pointed out there was virtually NO DIFFERENCE between the two. But the guy refused to connect the dots. Then Michelangelo hammered him on what Trump has done over the past decades to improve lives for everyday Americans (or something to that effect). The guy couldn't give a rational answer. He tried to applaud Trump's tax plan, which Michelangelo pointed out, didn't really exist. Trump has basically kept quiet on how he's going to pay for all of these things he keeps promising, like the Mexican border wall and more boots on the ground in the Middle East, et al. But the caller was having none of it. TOTALLY. DELUSIONAL. The scariest part for me about the Trump supporters is how effn DISCONNECTED they are from their own BELIEF SYSTEMS. They have NO CLUE what it is they actually THINK, what it is they actually SUPPORT, what it is they actually BELIEVE. They're so filled with ANGER and RAGE that they can't figure out WHO or WHAT they should be aiming all of that animosity towards. So the right wing media tells them to AIM the ANGER and RAGE at the folks who AREN'T LIKE THEM -- minorities, gays, the disabled, the poor, Muslims, Latinos, African Americans, undocumented workers, etc, etc, etc -- which they do -- with Trump CHEERLEADING their efforts from the podium -- without stopping to ask, "WHY"? These Trump supporters are BRAINLESS. And BRAINLESS masses of ANGRY CITIZENS is what HITLER used in his rise to POWER.
Originally Posted By Yookeroo "Yep, very well said." Right. The two groups may be unhappy about the same thing, but the blame is very very different. I'm unconvinced there's significant overlap.
