10/23 Jim Hill: Ops side of DLR

Originally Posted By aracuanbird

Let me start this by saying Disneyland has nothing on Holiday World.

Now: It is amazing to me how ambivalent folks have grown toward long lines. When I was a kid, I HATED waiting in line. That was a while back, I have to admit.

Over the years, I have worked for many attractions and until recently grew a thick skin toward lines. I developed all sorts of answers for why long lines are good, how they build value, how they enhance the perceived demand for XYZ guest experience.

HOGWASH.

Go to Holiday World someday. No IP like a Disney or a Universal. No bleeding-edge ride tech. But the lines are manageable. The attractions are family-friendly. And the place is reasonably priced.

With what they have, they build a guest centered experience.

The Mouse thinks it can open a choked ride that has inherently high demand, darn the crowds?

ChiMike says you can get in line and are guaranteed a ride (maybe after waiting 3 hours after close)?

Marie Antoinette said "Let them eat cake."

They all lack respect for the people they're talking about.

Walt died and the park was building its highest capacity attractions. Forty years later and the Old Man's ideas of efficiency are apparently passe.

 

Originally Posted By Westsider

Unfortunately the "Ops" guy that Jim Hill quoted in this article didn't have accurate information. The capacity of each raft is not 55, and the hourly capacity is not currently 1,100. The CM quoted in the Jim Hill article was working with old statistics and information for the Rafts attraction.

 

Originally Posted By aracuanbird

Jim Hill is about a month behind Al Lutz. And about six years behind on his Light Magic series.

 

Originally Posted By Westsider

And five years behind on his Rafts capacity statistics.

 

Originally Posted By gadzuux

Jim's larger point is taht TSI is problematic as a location for any new and highly popular attraction.

As with the subs, if they're going to install something new on TSI, they'd better be sure to provide the necessary infrastructure to support the anticipated guests. Otherwise they're shooting themselves in the foot by creating headaches for themselves. Since they're the industry leader, they need to avoid stupid mistakes.

 

Originally Posted By danyoung

Gadzuux is absolutely right in his mathematical assessment - all of the people in the park will NOT be able to ride on any given day.

Now, is that a complete tragedy? Nope. How many of us have wanted to ride an attraction over the past 20 or 30 or 40 years, seen the line, and said "no way - I'll wait for another day"? The simple calculation is that demand plus capacity will determine the length of the line. And the length of the line will influence people's desire to ride. I ain't waiting 3 hours for no ride, no matter how cool or how new. I waited 2 hours for my first ride on Indy. And while I loved the attraction (still do!), I vowed never to do it again. Barring FP on the Subs, people will just have to get there at opening or wait in line.

Yes, by the end of the day, you'll have a whole bunch of people that wanted to ride the Subs but didn't get to. I agree with my friend Chi - more incentive to come back tomorrow, or next week, or next visit, to get on it for the first time. It's been exactly the same with every new attraction since Pirates in 1967. The only difference here is that the math between demand and capacity is a bit off. But again, the line length will regulate that. The lines will probably be longer for awhile, but news about that will get out fast. And everyone has the option of RUNNING to the Subs first thing in the morning. Just like everyone RAN to Space Mountain during its first year. And everyone RAN to Splash Mountain. And everyone RAN to Indy. It'll be a busy summer at the Subs, and then everything will level out. It always does.

 

Originally Posted By Socrates

What's a good day's attendance at Disneyland? 50,000?

How many Disneyland attractions have a daily capacity of 50,000?

Socrates
"The unexamined life is not worth living."

 

Originally Posted By avromark

<<How many Disneyland attractions have a daily capacity of 50,000>>

The Espalande?

 

Originally Posted By ChiMike

>>I disagree. 18,000 people per day (with luck) will be able to ride nemo, the rest won't. There's just no swerving around this fact. <<

And again, this fact is incomplete. It's not luck. Anybody who chooses to be apart of the queue, will be. Those who are outside the 18k a day, are because they don't want to wait.

That's how it works. If others are willing to wait longer than you, they have first right ahead of you to ride. It's only in recent time where FP has screwed up this very simple concept which has worked for centuries.

Is capacity an issue. Sure. But it is not prohibitive for one single guest who is determined to ride.

>>Great? The people who will ride are the ones that want the most AND have the patience and stamina and time necessary to make it through the line.<<

Yes and what is wrong with that? That is the best way to handle it.

Patience shouldn't be a quality? Someone showing up at the park doesn't have 90 minutes? And if a person is truly unable to stand in line because of disability, and I mean truly, then they will get help from City Hall.

This really is silly. For YEARS AND YEARS people stood in LONG lines for Indy, Splash, Star Tours, Space Mountain when they opened. There wasn't the need for all of this angst for the few who couldn't handle the queue down Main Street.

And if you don't have the patience or time to do the line. Then, I'm sorry, tough.

>>BTW, this eliminates almost all children under the age of ten or so - nemo's target audience.<<

I think this is an over-reaching view. When I was under ten I waited in lines that were VERY long. And let me tell you they were for simple things like the Skyway and >da-da-duhhhh< the subs.

So if years ago I and thousands of others could wait as a child for the subs, why can't the children of today?

>>I'm guessing it will. We'll see for sure next summer.<<

I would assert that it would only be for a few weeks and then maybe again for when blackout periods end and when peak holiday crowds visit. Other than that the line will probably peak at 100 minutes.

>>I disagree with this too. In general terms, perhaps it could have an upside. In this particular case, the long lines will be due to an inherent design flaw within the attraction itself - not just it's popularity. <<

That design flaw serviced Disneyland for 35+ years. It took 35 years for the attraction to wear out it's welcome where the design flaw played into getting rid of it. Now there is an entire new park and resort, more high tech attractions, and new show effects for the subs themselves. So this makes me think that like in 1980, the design flaw will take a backseat again.

I also think you are under-estimating how well the guests can control the line. It won't take long for most guests to share a common belief in how long of a line the subs are worth. Just as Peter Pan reaches a saturation point.

>>But yeah - I'm predicting doom and gloom - specifically, I'm predicting massive crowd control problems,<<

Uh-oh you know what happened the last time TDA predicted that....

>>large amounts of irate guests, and and unusual amount of hard feelings and bad PR for disney.<<

... And the last time the Disney fans predicted this.

>>And not just for the first few weeks or months - but essentially for the life of the attraction. Demand will always far outstrip available capacity in a way that disney has never had to contend with before.<<

This I agree with. But I don't think that means guests will be upset or will there be people who want to ride being prevented from riding because of a long line.

Like I said, if there is a 3hr line that means there are 3hrs worth of people who are willing to wait.

Personally, I think it is good for the attraction. It help's it's longevity that rerides will be less frequent. It will stay fresh longer. Just as many old attractions from the 60s and 70s did before FP was introduced.

 

Originally Posted By ChiMike

>>ChiMike says you can get in line and are guaranteed a ride (maybe after waiting 3 hours after close)?<<

I don't think I'm showing a lack of respect for the guests. I think I am giving the guests credit. That those who think a long wait is worth it will join. And those astute and/or preoccupied enough to not think the wait is worth it won't ride.

I just don't think you'll see a lot of guests with pitchforks. And I don't think you'll see guests turned away from the queue at 11:00 AM because there can only be 18K guests a day.

And yes, on the rare circumstances that there is a 3 hr line near the park closing Disney might need to turn away guests but something tells me that there will not be a lot of guests at park close who will want to wait in a 3 hr line anyway.

This 3 hr. line thing is maybe being given too much as a certainity. Sure, during the first days the lines will be long, but who knows maybe they will do an all-nighter. Maybe they will have early, early entry. Maybe they will alllow guests to stay until 1:00 AM w/ escorts and trams.

We don't know. But I would assert again that it's not going to be 3hr waits ever night at park close.

 

Originally Posted By ChiMike

>>Forty years later and the Old Man's ideas of efficiency are apparently passe.<<

I cherish the Old Man's ideas of efficiency. And I scorn the company for abandoning them. But remember the "Old Man" loved the subs and he helped to design them. They had the same capacity issues then. During peak holidays they had the same line issues then. He didn't find that as cause to junk the subs.

 

Originally Posted By bean

Isn't this usually an issue wih most new attractions?

It is not just a problem in a disney park or will it be the only attraction that has this problem.

SIx flags attraction have extremely low capacity its not new

Several disney new attractions and new shows have low capacity nothing new.

If someone complains they go to city hall they get a free pass com back and spend more money the next time. Most people will not even complain.

Yes there will be problems at first but it will only be because AP holders will rad the attraction as soon as it opens.

 

Originally Posted By trekkeruss

<<remember the "Old Man" loved the subs and he helped to design them. They had the same capacity issues then. During peak holidays they had the same line issues then. He didn't find that as cause to junk the subs.>>

FWIW, the Matterhorn also had very low capacity until 1987, when they basically doubled it by using two-car trains.

Will some people complain about Nemo because they were unwilling to wait? No doubt... obviously some people are complaining _right now_. But it won't be the first or last time someone complains about whatever, and Disneyland will continue to be the Happiest Place On Earth.

 

Originally Posted By ChiMike

>>SIx flags attraction have extremely low capacity its not new<<

Exactly Bean. Look at X or Deja Vu.

Now I would agree that Disney should be held to a much higher standard when it comes to Capacity and Efficiency.

 

Originally Posted By ChiMike

>>FWIW, the Matterhorn also had very low capacity until 1987, when they basically doubled it by using two-car trains.<<

Another great example Russ.

 

Originally Posted By bean

Not every attraction needs to accomodate every single person that enters the gates. that is why you need a balance set of attractions and entertainment to give people a choice.

Most people realize that when a new attraction at Disneyland opens that it will have huge lines. It happened with simple attractions like Captain EO which had good capacity it happen to Star tours and it happened to Indiana Jones. All these attractions had high cpacity numbers and still there were thousands that did not ride it.

 

Originally Posted By dresswhites

i agree with chimike and others. I remember my family avoided Star Tours for a long time when it opened, but the lines were also so long.
I think that will be the case here. Some people will want to brave long line, some wont and go on the attraction some other time.
Also i remember when Indy opened, the line wrapped all the way thru Adventure, Frontierland, and around the hub. The line was 3 or 4 hours. Yet people waited in it. Also that summer Indy broke down alot. so that means for a period of 15 to 30 minutes, the line didn't even move. Yet people waited. I didn't see people storming city hall or bashing disneyland. Once again like Star Tours, my family didn't ride the attraction til 96. The line was still over an over an over hour or two.
the Rocket Rods didn't have very good capacity. the lines were frequently long. but people waited for it. IT too broke down alot. yet people stuck it out. i know they did, because I worked custodial that summer and often got assigned to the Rods line.
also there are times when people will find shorter lines. Disneyland when opened til midnite, is dead at 11pm and on. you can shoot cannons through much of the park. Yes some attractions, like Peter Pan, Dumbo, and Splash have lines, but overall it is pretty dead.
Also, the subs aren't the only new thing at disneyland this summer. there is rocking space mountain, jedi training, and the princess fantasy faire.

 

Originally Posted By nemopoppins

None of the Fantasyland rides have a high capacity. Yet you've all been able to ride on them, haven't you? Some of you have not only ridden them but also every ride in the park on the same day! Some of you (well maybe not you, but definitely some of the rest of the crowds) don't care to ride some of the Fantasyland rides. It really does all even out.

Someone earlier mentioned that the subs would make them feel claustrophobic. There are very many daily guests who won't ride that attraction for that reason alone. There are other reasons not to ride it. My seven year old says Bruce will scare her too much (and she goes on EVERY other ride). There are many more reasons to choose not to ride besides long lines. Some people could take it or leave it.

It really does all even out. Sometimes even Disney doesn't plan well for that. The queue area for Monsters Inc. is too large. Of course the demand for the ride was going to drop in time. It ALWAYS does. I can't be the only one who is surprised by how soon the lines shorten after an opening or reopening, regardless of the capacity of the ride.

It WILL balance. It always does.

But I won't like the promotion for the Nemo opening. There will be some people who will be disappointed because they want to see it but didn't anticipate and do not want to wait in a long line. It's just like the billboards late this summer, "The 50th is not over yet." But almost everything was gone by then! I felt so bad for anyone who visited for that reason.

 

Originally Posted By aracuanbird

Somehow folks are willing to just accept lines, long or short, as a natural part of life.

Long lines stink. Disney knew this in the park's early years. New E Tickets were (as a general rule) rolled out with ever-increasing capacity. Certainly the subs and Matterhorn had lower ride capacity in '59...the park was servicing fewer guests. The capacity of these rides was eclipsed by real people-eaters like Small World just a half-decade later.

(It would be interesting to map park attendance against hourly capacity since 1955. Per cap, were there more capacity units then or now? And how much instant impact do extra units have on attendance?)

Rolling out a new, well-publicized attraction with popular characters carries a heavy burden. This bright shiny thing will be perceived as a must-see by most guests. Folks will be disappointed.

Using excuses like "Walt designed it" misses the point. In 1959 the design of this thing was probably fine for the park's attendance. But the Walt-era guys did not design it with 2006 in mind (how could they?).

Will things balance? Sure they will. Will guests be happy about it? Many won't be, because they either didn't get to ride, or they will feel they spent too much of their time (and money) waiting in line. Many guests will not be back next week, next month, even next year to ride when the lines subside.

But the biggest quesstion for me: WHO CARES? Who cares that guests are frustrated, or unhappy?

If Disney cares and they chose to open this attraction when it is ripe with problems, then what is up? What has driven the reopening of the subs in this form?

 

Originally Posted By ChiMike

>>If Disney cares and they chose to open this attraction when it is ripe with problems, then what is up? <<

But that's the flaw in your overall thesis aracuanbird, at least imo; this attraction is not 'ripe' with problems. Disney is not opening up a flawed attraction.

They are opening up a brand new attraction which uses updated facilities. They increased capacity as much as they could and they added the ability for disabled guests to participate where they weren't able to do so in the past.

If low capacity is equated with being ripe with flaws, then there are about 10-12 attractions that Disney operates which are rip with flaws.

Not everything has to be high capacity. It's nice to have it, but on the flipside it's normally the high capacity attractions that are always accused of being stale and unpopular.