Originally Posted By WorldDisney > ^^What is prop. 8? < <<The one Utah Mormons are so concerned about...>> Okay, thanks! I just have a question though: What is it that the Utah mormons are concerned about? LOL, sorry!
Originally Posted By mawnck A Muslim "guest columnist" at fivethirtyeight.com thinks Bin Laden will do something to help McCain. He reminds readers of the Bin Laden video taunting W right before the last election, and then draws us some interesting parallels. Some excerpts: >>When bin Laden declared war on the United States, it was in the hope that the United States would declare war in return – not just on him, but on the entire Muslim world. He wanted war, the bigger and more protracted the better. He wanted the Clash of Civilizations. He wanted, in a very literal sense, The End of Days. He didn’t have the firepower or resources to trigger the apocalypse himself, so he baited someone who did – the United States of America. I can’t stress this point enough: bin Laden and his followers don’t fear war because they don’t fear death – they welcome it. They believe, without reservation, that death brings martyrdom and eternal salvation. ... That he might get killed after 9/11 was a far lesser concern to bin Laden than the possibility that his murderous attack might not provoke a suitable response. And in the immediate aftermath of 9/11, when world opinion – including Muslim world opinion – was overwhelmingly in America’s corner, and when our military forces initially targeted only Al-Qaeda and their Taliban enablers in Afghanistan, he might have thought he miscalculated. And then came the drumbeat to war with Iraq, opening up a new front against a country that had nothing whatsoever to do with 9/11. I can only imagine bin Laden rubbing his hands together with glee upon the news that the United States had declared war on Iraq, telling his men, “You see? Our plan is working.” So when it came to the 2004 election, bin Laden was neither pro-Bush nor pro-Kerry. He was pro-war. And whichever candidate was most likely to sustain, or even escalate, that war was his man. That candidate was clearly George W. Bush, which meant it was time to turn on the cameras and burn a DVD. This time around, we have one candidate who advocates a timetable to withdraw our troops from Iraq and divert those resources to Afghanistan ... And then we have a candidate who talks about maintaining U.S. forces in Iraq for 100 years if necessary, and sings songs in public about pre-emptively bombing Iran ... since any appearance by bin Laden is likely to tip voters towards favoring the decorated Vietnam War veteran, bin Laden’s best move is to show up with another October Surprise. ... With McCain lagging in the polls, bin Laden might even try a Hail Mary – with Sarah Palin on the ballot, I’d imagine that he’ll throw in some misogynistic comments about how a woman’s place is inside the home and that a nation led by a woman is sure to be cursed by God. ... And then there’s the worst-case scenario: while Obama’s lead is substantial enough that he probably could weather a bin Laden appearance, the real game-changer would be if – God forbid – bin Laden is able to launch another terrorist attack on U.S. soil. I hope I’m wrong, and that bin Laden stays quiet for the next month.<< Plenty more at the link: <a href="http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/guest-column-will-bin-laden-strike.html" target="_blank">http://www.fivethirtyeight.com...ike.html</a>
Originally Posted By WorldDisney Yeah, the Bin Laden game changer, I guess that's possible. And if Bin Laden actually managed to launch an ATTACK a few weeks before election, honestly the elections would be the last issue. There will be so much finger pointing, conspiracy theories, questions of the war, etc, I dont know if it would do EITHER candidate any good. And I also think that Bush would do all that he can to protect America in its last day in office. Besides the fact he sincerely doesnt want another attack (hes not the devil lol, just a bad President) he DOESNT want to leave office with a terrorist attack on his record before he leaves. Forget McCain, he still has to retain SOMETHING of a reputation from his horrible term in office. So I dont see that one happening at all....but a 5 minute tape of Osama on youtube, sure lol.
Originally Posted By mawnck >>he DOESNT want to leave office with a terrorist attack on his record before he leaves.<< You mean, of course, ANOTHER terrorist attack on his record ... ;-)
Originally Posted By vbdad55 How about a 5 minute Bin Laden videotape supporting Barack Obama by name ? Let's think worst case scenario ( for the Dems ) here, and he calls hima 'brother in arms' or something to that effect ? What effect do you think that would have ?
Originally Posted By Sport Goofy ^^ Absolutely no effect. Bin Laden tapes are just background noise these days, not even newsworthy.
Originally Posted By vbdad55 Ok- let's assume it is a good one for the sake of discussion - maybe made in a state of the art Bollywood studio
Originally Posted By mawnck >>How about a 5 minute Bin Laden videotape supporting Barack Obama by name ? << Read the original link. It won't be supporting anybody by name. Bin Laden isn't that dumb. Although either way, I'm sure it would improve McCain's chances tremendously. There's an awful lot of gullible people in this country.
Originally Posted By vbdad55 I don't think it would be dumb at all - the more chaos he can cause here- imagine the hit the markets would take from that one. Remember I don't think he gives a rat's backside about who is running America - and he would have reason to try and derail Obama if he believed - as many do that America might have more allies with Obama -- it's the smart play ! ( for him )
Originally Posted By mawnck >>he would have reason to try and derail Obama if he believed - as many do that America might have more allies with Obama -- it's the smart play ! << You're STILL missing the fundamental point here. It's human nature to rally around he who your enemy is attacking. If Bin Laden wants to derail Obama, the way to do it is not to support Obama, it's to attack McCain. EXACTLY as he did with Bush in '04. On his '04 tape, he specifically said that he did not support Kerry and did not care who was in the White House, yet it was obviously his version of a Bush campaign ad. If you still can't understand that, then, well, I'm afraid you've proven my point.
Originally Posted By vbdad55 I fully understand your reasoning and how it could work that way ( and maybe in fact did ) - however with the supposed paranoia over Obama being a Muslim - a new element is in play today. If some weak minded people who are voting for Obama ( but maybe really just voting against Bush ) - heard the message as I stated it, can you not see them then saying " I told you he was a Muslim " ! Of coursethey'd likely get somehelp with this from the right wing radio nut jobs. That's all I am saying - the game is different today than 4 years ago in that a fear is that somehow Obama may be somehow linked to terrorist - a sleeper cell candidate, if you will. Nobody thought Kerry or Edwards were Muslims.
Originally Posted By Dabob2 < Remember I don't think he gives a rat's backside about who is running America - and he would have reason to try and derail Obama if he believed - as many do that America might have more allies with Obama -- it's the smart play ! ( for him )> I think he cares a great deal, for the very reason you state. Obama is much more likely to repair the damages Bush wrought with our international allies, whereas McCain believes in "American exceptionalism" and, IMO, is far more likely to react badly to provocation from Iran, say, and launch something against them too. Bin laden is all about trying to launch holy war/clash of civilizations, i.e. the west against the Muslim world. For that to happen, we have to play along, and who's more likely to do that? Bellicose talk (much more likely to come from McCain than Obama) also serves as a great recruiting tool for Al Qaeda. I think bin Laden probably cares quite a bit who wins, which is why he intentionally helped Bush last time. HOW he'd try to help McCain this time, I don't know. Could be by attacking McCain or by praising Obama if he thought that would work. I just hope he's too sick (or already dead) to produce such an "October surprise" this time.
