Originally Posted By RockyMtnMinnie >>>Now I'm confused again. Am I going to need a life jacket or not?<< No, Silly! In case of a water landing, your seat cusion can be used as a floatation device!
Originally Posted By RockyMtnMinnie If we look at flipping a coin one time we have two outcomes. Heads = H or Tails = T. Therefore the odds of flipping a heads is 1 in 2. If we flip a coin twice we have four possible outcomes... HH HT TH TT So the odds of flipping two heads out of two flips is 1 in 4 instead of 1 in 2. Now looking at an aircrash you have an infinite list of possible variables; is it sunny or rainy, did the pilot get enough sleep the night before, did a mechanic call in sick, etc... Statistics are like people. Torture them long enough and you can make them say anything.
Originally Posted By RockyMtnMinnie >>>It's a very common statistics misunderstanding. Instead of plane crashes, consider the roll of the dice. Rolling a single die has a 1/6 chance of each of the particular outcomes. Let's say that by chance you roll three 6's in a row. What is the probability that the next roll is a 6? It would be a mistake to say that it's very low, since the chances of rolling four 6's in a row is very remote. In reality, the chances that the next roll is a 6 is the same as it always was: 1 in 6.<<< The odds of rolling four 6's in a row is actually 1 in 1,296.
Originally Posted By Sport Goofy << If we flip a coin twice we have four possible outcomes... HH HT TH TT So the odds of flipping two heads out of two flips is 1 in 4 instead of 1 in 2. >> If I flip a coin once and it lands on heads, I have have two possible outcomes for the second flip: HH HT So, the odds of flipping heads the second time are still 1 in 2 after the first coin flip -- the same as flipping head the first time.
Originally Posted By RockyMtnMinnie >>>If I flip a coin once and it lands on heads, I have have two possible outcomes for the second flip: HH HT So, the odds of flipping heads the second time are still 1 in 2 after the first coin flip -- the same as flipping head the first time.<<< I did NOT stay awake in Quantitative Statisics for nothing. The odds of one coins flip is 1 in 2. By inceasing the number of flips, you are changing the number of variables. You can't in two flips ignore the outcome of the first flip.
Originally Posted By RockyMtnMinnie >>>You can't in two flips ignore the outcome of the first flip. <<< That should be possible outcomes of the first flip.
Originally Posted By RockyMtnMinnie If I FLIPPED a coin two times and my outcome was HH. That does not mean that the odds of me flipping two heads was 1 in 1. Unless you believe in pre-destination.
Originally Posted By Sport Goofy << You can't in two flips ignore the outcome of the first flip. >> I was taking the outcomes of the first flip into account. Once the first flip is done, you can't pretend the odds are any different for the second flip than the first.
Originally Posted By RockyMtnMinnie >>>I was taking the outcomes of the first flip into account. Once the first flip is done, you can't pretend the odds are any different for the second flip than the first.<<< Then you are only considering the odds of ONE flip, not two. A little bit of friendly advice: Don't go to Vegas.
Originally Posted By Sport Goofy << Then you are only considering the odds of ONE flip, not two. >> If I'm basing my decision on whether or not to get on a plane today, why should I consider the odds of what happened to the plane yesterday? I'm only concerned with what happens to the plane today. If I'm making a decision on whether or not to take a round trip flight, with 2 plane trips, you point makes sense. And I don't go to Vegas, too depressing to watch all the people throwing their money away. Although, it's pretty easy to make money at the roulette table if you understand statistics. Just don't be the only one at the table -- amazing how the house can shred probabilities when they can focus on a single player's bets on the board.
Originally Posted By RockyMtnMinnie >>>If I'm basing my decision on whether or not to get on a plane today, why should I consider the odds of what happened to the plane yesterday? I'm only concerned with what happens to the plane today.<<< If you are considering the possibility of one plane crashing, then only look the possibility of the one plane crashing. If you are looking at the possibility of two planes crashing in a given time-period, you have to consider all the possible outcomes, regardless if the roll of the dice has started yet. If the plane crashes and I don't know that it crashed, does that change the outcome of the plane I am getting on? If a tree falls in the woods and no one is there the hear it... yada, yada, yada...
Originally Posted By barboy ///Fact of the matter is, the odds are more favorable for a safe trip as airline crashes are so uncommon and a second crash within a couple of weeks would be extremely rare./// THAT IS NOT LOGICAL......according to the rules of probability and statistics
Originally Posted By barboy ///The odds that two planes would crash on two consecutive days are/// exactly the same as if they would crash: 2 days apart 3 days apart 4 days apart (assumes all things equal like the population of planes in the sky, plane maintenance, weather patterns, quality of pilots, terrorism......)
Originally Posted By Mr X Statistics are really meaningless unless you look at them over a long period of time. For example, the "odds" of four planes crashing on the same day would seem astronomical, but it happened on 9/11. Then another plane crashed in the same city just a week (?) later. So we've got five crashes in a very short span of time, even more unlikely statistically speaking. But if you look at the past 10 years, the events of 9/11 and the crash in the Bronx don't really make a ripple in the overall averages.
Originally Posted By SuperDry <<< <--- Gives barboy a few minutes to get caught up. >>> It's not barboy that needs a few minutes to catch up. <<< If you are considering the possibility of one plane crashing, then only look the possibility of the one plane crashing. If you are looking at the possibility of two planes crashing in a given time-period, you have to consider all the possible outcomes, regardless if the roll of the dice has started yet. >>> Wahooskipper is planning on only going on one flight, the one he's about to take. He was not on the AF flight nor did he plan to. So the odds he has to worry about are the ones about his flight only. <<< >>>It's a very common statistics misunderstanding. Instead of plane crashes, consider the roll of the dice. Rolling a single die has a 1/6 chance of each of the particular outcomes. Let's say that by chance you roll three 6's in a row. What is the probability that the next roll is a 6? It would be a mistake to say that it's very low, since the chances of rolling four 6's in a row is very remote. In reality, the chances that the next roll is a 6 is the same as it always was: 1 in 6.<<< The odds of rolling four 6's in a row is actually 1 in 1,296. >>>> Of course, but that's not the question, nor is it in the case of someone considering the odds of a flight they're about to board.
