Al Lutz reports on DCA attendance

Discussion in 'Disneyland News, Rumors and General Discussion' started by See Post, Sep 19, 2012.

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  1. See Post

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    Originally Posted By DlandDug

    OK... I put together a few illustrations to explain what I'm about to post.

    First of all, the illustration shown in the article is, well, the wrong one. It shows the proposed Liberty Street and Edison Square-- two unrelated attractions that take up a sizable chunk of real estate. Here's an early concept piece showing the old "International Street."
    <a href="http://s325.photobucket.com/albums/k375/newdug/Main%20Street%20Alley/?action=view&current=SCN_0001_zps5d89ab75.jpg" target="_blank">http://s325.photobucket.com/al...ab75.jpg</a>#!oZZ1QQcurrentZZhttp%3A%2F%2Fs325.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Fk375%2Fnewdug%2FMain%2520Street%2520Alley%2F%3Faction%3Dview%26current%3DSCN_0001_zps5d89ab75.jpg

    This shows the existing east side of Main Street, along with the open area where the parade floats are kept on the south end of Main Street:
    <a href="http://s325.photobucket.com/albums/k375/newdug/Main%20Street%20Alley/?action=view&current=SCN_0001_zps5d89ab75.jpg" target="_blank">http://s325.photobucket.com/al...ab75.jpg</a>#!oZZ2QQcurrentZZhttp%3A%2F%2Fs325.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Fk375%2Fnewdug%2FMain%2520Street%2520Alley%2F%3Faction%3Dview%26current%3DMainStreet_zpscc8d1de6.jpg

    And here is the same view, with the new "alley" shown, along with the various buildings that will be impacted:
    <a href="http://s325.photobucket.com/albums/k375/newdug/Main%20Street%20Alley/?action=view&current=SCN_0001_zps5d89ab75.jpg" target="_blank">http://s325.photobucket.com/al...ab75.jpg</a>#!oZZ3QQcurrentZZhttp%3A%2F%2Fs325.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Fk375%2Fnewdug%2FMain%2520Street%2520Alley%2F%3Faction%3Dview%26current%3DDLAlley_zpsa91eb325.jpg

    As you can see, it does not encroach in any way into the parade float area. The aging storage structures along this side of the street could be better replaced with new buildings, or even basement storage.
     
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    Originally Posted By DlandDug

    Hmmm.

    I guess you will need to just choose "NEXT" for the second and third images...
     
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    Originally Posted By Manfried

    If it goes in the blue areas of picture #3, it makes sense.
     
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    Originally Posted By tonyanton

    It would be great if they could do this. I think there is not enough room on the west side of the street to do the same, though.

    This would be a nice option also at WDW. There is a similar dearth of theming between the Main Street "Plaza Restaurant" and the "Tomorrowland Terrace" to the west. Also, despite being wider and having essentially hollowed out the West Side shops into one large walk-through store, the crowds in WDW get just as bad at times.
     
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    Originally Posted By TP2000

    "If it goes in the blue areas of picture #3, it makes sense."

    With all due respect Manfried, that's EXACTLY what Mr. Lutz said it was going to do. I was honestly wondering if you and I had read the same Lutz column the way you were claiming it could never work and never be accomplished without ending all parades at Disneyland and canceling Christmas. ;-)

    Per Mr. Lutz, it would be a modest 20 foot wide alley built directly on the backside of existing Main Street buildings, while pushing existing backstage support buildings and customer service facilities slightly east via repositioned newly built structures built within the same basic footprint.

    Thank you Doug for those great photos!
     
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    Originally Posted By Manfried

    With all due respect TP2000, Al was not that clear. DlandDug was.
    The way Mr. Al wrote it was sloppy writing.
    It's amazing what a clear graphic can communicate.
     
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    Originally Posted By Dr Hans Reinhardt

    "We don't provide numbers to AECOM - the research firm behind the TEA report - they have to ensure they are comparing apples-with-apples - therefore their numbers aren't as accurate as you would possibly imagine."

    Pretty much what I've assumed. Thank you for posting this. It makes perfect sense.
     
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    Originally Posted By believe

    >>>>>>therefore their numbers aren't as accurate as you would possibly imagine<<<<<

    It doesn't really matter if they are accurate or not (ok, it does, but only to a certain point), it mainly matters that they are consistent. As long as they are counting the same way every year, we will get a good idea of what's going on.

    In the "old" days (the early/mid 80s), schedulers would get the projected total attendance estimate so that they would schedule CMs accordingly. Don't what they do now.
     
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    Originally Posted By Dr Hans Reinhardt

    "It doesn't really matter if they are accurate or not (ok, it does, but only to a certain point), it mainly matters that they are consistent."

    What?
     
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    Originally Posted By believe

    I didn't want to write a whole book on it.

    So, for example, if they've been counting "first click" every year for the past 10 years, (whether or not that's the "accurate" thing to do), and they continue to do so, then that's the only numbers we can work with. So that's apples to apples.

    If they decide to change the way they count next year - ie only count the last click for the day, then it would be apples to oranges.
     
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    Originally Posted By Dr Hans Reinhardt

    Right, but we don't know what the first click numbers are. As someone else pointed out the numbers (from TEA) are not first click results, but estimates based on Lord knows what.
     
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    Originally Posted By TP2000

    I'm glad the graphic helped you Manfried. It's a fun concept that Al Lutz has broken the news on, and while I'm forever fascinated by folks who apparently can't stand it when he breaks new rumors like that, it's going to be interesting to see if it shows up in 2015 or not.

    Goodness knows Disneyland needs that safety valve for crowd control, and they needed it years ago. It should have been built for the 50th in '05, but if it shows up a decade late in '15 instead it will still be a very welcome change.

    As for attendance, on another board I threw out my own personal amateur estimate for what 2012 attendance will be like for Disneyland Resort. I'm predicting a slight decline in attendance for Disneyland, and a big jump for DCA. But combined the numbers for Disneyland Resort as a whole will see a healthy jump due to Cars Land and the revamped DCA.

    My predictions for 2012:

    Disneyland - 15 Million
    DCA - 10.5 Million
    Total 25.5 Million

    That would be a roughly 2.5 Million total increase over 2011.
     
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    Originally Posted By Dabob2

    Unless they create another egress point, it's not really a safety valve, though. Ultimately, the choke points are the same.

    As Al himself says, the primary value, aside from being potentially a nicely themed area in its own right, is to get people up the street more quickly during parades and fireworks if they're not interested in watching the parades or fireworks.
     
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    Originally Posted By FerretAfros

    The choke points at the turnstyles and tunnels will still be there, but I haven't seen those places be an issue in my experience. Perhaps with the additional parm capicity it will become an issue in the future, but with the park's current layout they dont seem to be he limiting factor. (Though the turnstyles can be quite crowded in the mornings, its never an issue at the end of the night)
     
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    Originally Posted By Dabob2

    It's not that it's a problem once you get to the turnstyles, it's that the limited number of them (and the two tunnels) means the masses on main street just can't move that quickly to get to them.

    It's like the bridges and tunnels here in NYC - once you get to the entrance/exit, you're fine... it's the backup in getting there that's the problem. That's really not alleviated with this potential new alleyway, as the bottlenecks are the same. It could help non-parade/fireworks viewers get UP the street to the hub more quickly, though.
     
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    Originally Posted By DlandDug

    The pinch point at the front of the park is Main Street. Once through the two blocks, crowds typically fan out in Town Square or the hub. The only time there is total shut down is immediately following fireworks or a major parade, when everyone tries to leave at the same time.

    A parallel walk through will not necessarily be safer, but it would give guests an alternative to fighting the crowds on Main Street or being that speedier-than-thou guy buzzing through the shops. (And yes, that's me.)

    It would also help the cast members who have the thankless task of directing guests to one side of Main Street or the other when it is set up for one-way traffic. It's very frustrating for tourists who often end up venting at cast members who are just doing their job. Not to mention certain regulars who are convinced they know better-- or deserve special privileges. (And no, that is NOT me!)
     
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    Originally Posted By Dabob2

    <The only time there is total shut down is immediately following fireworks or a major parade, when everyone tries to leave at the same time.>

    Yeah that's when the additional alley wouldn't really help - it would just be another lane feeding the same bottlenecks.

    <but it would give guests an alternative to fighting the crowds on Main Street or being that speedier-than-thou guy buzzing through the shops. >

    That's when it would help. I'm totally not a parade guy and fighting one's way up to the hub and beyond to get to the rest of the park via half a sidewalk or the shops is not ideal - it would help for that.
     
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    Originally Posted By TP2000

    I will watch a parade once when it is new, but then I don't need to see it ever again. I saw Soundsational once in '11, thought it was cute, and then never looked back. I haven't stopped to watch the Christmas parade in over a decade.

    Many people just don't go to amusement parks to watch the same parade over and over again. This alley thing will be great for me and those like me, or anyone who just needs to get the heck out of the park at a time that happens to coincide with the parade or fireworks.
     
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    Originally Posted By Dabob2

    If you want to leave while the parade or fireworks are going on, it will be a help. If you want to leave after they're over, it really won't be.
     
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    Originally Posted By Manfried

    Just watch the fireworks. How can you not watch fireworks. And yes, TP2000, when I'm wrong I admit it. More than I can say for Al. Anyone remember the one where he said there would be a new dark ride entered from Main Street Cinema? Oh, that post has completely disappeared.
    If Al knows, I would like to know when Disney is going to lay or let the contracts lapse of the remaining old time Imagineers.
     

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