Al Lutz's opinion of WDW after recent visit

Discussion in 'Walt Disney World News, Rumors and General Disc' started by See Post, Nov 3, 2006.

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  1. See Post

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    Originally Posted By Spirit of 74


    <<There is no such thing as mainstream media reporting of DLR news. The people who buy mainstream newspapers and watch TV don't care. >>

    Not true at all. How often does the LA Times and OC Register write about DL? How often does national media? What about television and travel writers and business publications?

    <<These Disney fan sites appeal to a very narrow population. The hosts of these sites can report whatever they feel like -- there is no catering to a mainstream.>>

    That's very true. But part of that population includes mainstream media, top level Disney execs and many, many CMs from Imagineers to the busboy at the Plaza Inn.

    <<Al's site also likes to go into criticism of business decisions made by executives and middle managers, but it's pretty clear to me that there is absolutely zero understanding of basic economics or balance sheets by the commentators. It's one thing to criticize management when you have some knowledge of how to be a manager or have some successful business acumen to stand behind, but to be a 2-bit hack that points the finger to executive management all the time is a bit annoying.>>

    Your point certainly has some validity to it, no doubt.

    But it doesn't take a business mind, degree or background to know a bad business decision when you see it. And Disney has thrown billions of dolars down the drain over the past decade with decisions that looked stupid to 'simple fans' when they were made. You don't need a balance sheet to know Fox Family was bad business and Go.com and DRE and the Angels and Mighty Ducks and hiring Mike Ovitz and overbuilding in Florida etc ...

    <<I found it a little bit surprising that the MiceAge junket chose to stay at the Caribbean Beach Resort for their WDW visit -- and attributed in their article that the lodging decision was based on a need to stay within a fixed budget. It's interesting that the author of so many criticisms of DLR and WDW management for making budgetary decisions finds himself "cheaping out" and making the exact same sort of decisions in his own personal life. With all of the hot air that is blown around on the MiceAge site in criticism of executive management decisions, I had somewhat envisioned the author to be a relatively successful businessman himself, with a good financial track record that might speak to a personal knowledge of how businesses work. I guess I shouldn't be surprised to find out that the man behind the curtain is just an average joe staying at the moderate resorts like the rest of us and probably struggles to keep up his own household balance sheet at the same time he dictates how a multi-billion dollar company should manage its own.>>

    I kind of feel this is just a cheapshot. The average room rate at CBR is between $150-200 a night now. The average room rate in the USA is around $97. I don't even know why I just typed that because, again, I don't feel where Al stayed should make any difference other than in how he reviews the hotel.

    I doubt I'll ever stay there again. But I've had some really lousy experiences at the place.
     
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    Originally Posted By Spirit of 74

    <<ORDDU: By the way, Spiritof74, duckling. Your post was--on the other hand--very well put and you deserve more than a million dreams come true for your wise words.>>

    How about a couple of weeks in Aruba?

    (and not the one at the CBR!)
     
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    Originally Posted By Spirit of 74

    <<Hey, Spirit, you seem to have the inclination, the contacts and, if I may say so, the long-windedness to be the WDW version of Al Lutz. Why don’t you do the job?>>

    Oh Park Hopping one, this spirit may like to opine in a wordy fashion, but that's because he has a lot to say and he knows the power of his words.

    But a WDW version of Al?

    Nah. I've got a life that is very busy and very complicated.

    I've been made many a spirited offer to write about WDW in the past, but if I indeed do, it would likely take the form of a real book. And, yes, I have had casual discussions with literary agents regarding just such a thing. So you never know ;-)
     
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    Originally Posted By Spirit of 74

    <<Why would anyone waste their time listening to Rush Limbaugh??>>

    Mental illness.

    Misery.

    Stupidity.

    There's a start ...
     
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    Originally Posted By Spirit of 74

    <<ORDDU: Yes, Spirit of 74, duckling, Mr. Lutz told us he was aware that Disney executives have been reading his web-footed site for years. He said he was familiar with various email addresses and such and who it was that was behind them. The whole idea was quite facinating to him. >>

    I'm sure.

    If DL management hadn't become so godawful a decade ago, Al Lutz wouldn't be an online celeb.

    I actually was going to try and meet up with Al for the first time as I find him, and his un/popularity in very high Disney circles, absolutely amazing.

    I've actually had Disney execs ask for my help in outing his sources.

    <<ORWEN: And why would any executive bother to waste their time reading what Mr. Lutz had to say if his reports were considered 'useless' or 'untrue'. >>

    Well, suffice to say, when Al writes something it gets read by the high-level folks in Anaheim, Burbank and Glendale ... as well as any reporter who covers DL/OC/theme parks/entertainment.

    But I recently had a 'message' conveyed to me about my/others online activities from a Disney exec who called places like this 'insignificant fan sites.'

    Sure. I always waste my time telling insignificant people they are indeed insignificant. ;-)

    The real message was 'We're afraid and we don't know how to respond.'

    <<ORGOCH: Walt Dizzy Whirl needs an Al Lutz even more 'n Dizzyland does. Any volunteers????

    ORDDU: Apply in person. Padded expense accounts not necessary! >>

    Nah. I get the very large expense account, the Escalade and all the young CP flesh I can handle or I'm not taking the job ;-)
     
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    Originally Posted By Spirit of 74

    <<Wow! Lots of mudslinging around here.>>

    I prefer mudwrestling myself ... nude, preferably.

    <<Anybody going to deny there ARE problems at WDW that DO need to be addressed?>>

    Problems? At WDW?

    You must be crazy?

    Take two haldol and don't call me in thr morning because I like to sleep in.
     
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    Originally Posted By Spirit of 74

    <<Kevin Yee has absolutely no credibility in my eyes. Because of the ridiculous things he was writing, I stopped reading him years ago. But who knows. Maybe he’s changed.>>

    I am not sure about Kevin. I believe he means well, and tries hard to be fair and balanced. But he doesn't have the hard edge that Al has ... one that is part bulldog reporter, part Disney crusader/management basher.

    For someone who's written books about WDW, I find Kevin's knowledge to often be very lacking in some areas.

    And, rest assured, the folks at Team Disney don't cringe when Kevin posts a column like they do when Al does.

    Kevin finally got some pub when he 'broke' the Western Development Plan last week, even though the news wasn't really news. That area has been primed for development for almost a decade. And with the announcement of DAK Lodge DVC, it stands to reason that more infrastructure will be built in what some visitors seem to feel is a 'remote' part of property.

    Credibility is a tough thing ... for example when he wrote about his experience on the DCL, he really came off very ignorant ... like someone who expected a theme park at sea.

    <<Is he now writing AL Lutz style exposes naming names and taking no prisoners? If so then why are people on this board longing for an East coast Al Lutz. I’m guessing that Kevin Yee isn’t filling the bill. After all, Al did feel it necessary to do a WDW article himself…>>

    I'm guessing that Kevin couldn't even name the park VPs and their Senior bosses. Or the structure of management.
     
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    Originally Posted By Spirit of 74

    <<I don't think anyone would deny that there are problems at WDW.>>

    Hmm ... I could name a few ...

    <<However, the biggest problem of all is that the parks and resorts there are too expensive to operate as a business. If you stripped out the DVC time share sales and real estate transactions at Celebration that Disney has used to pad the bottom line for the past 10 years, you would find that Disney parks aren't all that profitable. On a park by park basis, most of them lose more money than they generate.>>

    I'd love to know where you get this information. Really. I've seen other folks toss this proposition out and it's really preposterous on many levels. The parks are cash cows for Disney and are in all but the worst economic downturns (1973-74, 1979, 1991-92 and 2001-03 are the years I know they have struggled).

    Numbers can be made to look/back up any proposition (studios do it all the time). But the parks, especially in this era of an almost slave workforce, deferred maintainance, stale entertainment and overall lack of reinvestment, are practically money-printing factories.

    DVC is a huge plus to the bottom line, but that is almost total profit. If you think Saratoga Springs sales are going to finance the next E-Ticket for the MK, you're wrong.

    <<Al Lutz likes to play a good vs. evil card with Disney executives, but never acknowledges that there are alternatives to some of the choices being made on the business front.>>

    No. He usually acknowledges that there are better alternatives for guest satisfaction and guest satisfaction ultimately drives profits. There's no spreadsheet available that can accurately show what Disney has LOST in terms of guests/revenue/profits due to all the BAD management choices that have been made over the past decade.

    <<No one wants to see budget-conscious decsions being made over decisions that are creatively driven. However, no one would pay $100 a day for admission to Disney parks either -- which is about what it would cost a guest if Disney actually had to cover their operating expenses with admission fees.>>

    Based upon what?

    And even if your statement were true, which I know it isn't, many said people wouldn't pay $75 to enter a WDW park and yet they do. And the Disney quality experience they used to get for less than half that has been largely WalMarted down.

    <<You only have to look around at other park operators to know how difficult it is to run these sorts of businesses. Universal Studios hemorrages a lot of money for NBC Universal. General Electric is very interested in selling the Universal parks, but there aren't too many buyers interested in owning a money-losing business. Six Flags is on the ropes and doesn't have enough free cash flow to pay its debts or invest in its parks. Cedar Fair hangs on by the skin of its teeth, but doesn't generate any massive windfall.>>

    None of the examples you list I give much credence to because Disney is the only large media company to depend upon its parks for so much of its operating income. Let's not forget when the parks had to support ABC ... and the studios ... and consumer products.

    <<Is there a balanace between business and creative decisions? Absolutely! But there should also be some balance in reporting about these situation that exposes reality instead of always spinning the Fantasyland version where its heroic Mickey Mouse fighting off the evil businessman giant of the beanstalk. If only life were that simple . . .>>

    You're absolutely right. Things aren't always black and white.

    But some things are made a whole lot more complicated than need be. Why? Because it helps keep the status quo. For 10 years, Disney has been dumbing down its product, lowering quality across the board, cutting costs down to the bone, all under a very misguided premise that Disney had to be 'lean and mean' to compete. It's the same drivel Americans are told when we stop manufacturing jobs, when $70,000 jobs with REAL benefits get shipped to India to $8 an hour people who get limited or no benefits etc ...

    The Disney theme park model worked great for 40 years. Not only creatively, where the parks had no competition, but financially as well.

    But the MBAs and consultants told Disney to break the model and start doing things like every other company.

    Guess what? It didn't work.

    <<By the way, the Haunted Mansion in Florida does look horrible. I agree 100%. It needs immediate attention and has been in bad shape for over a decade. It would be nice to see this attraction refreshed and brought back to life -- well as much back to life as you can for a house full of ghosts. ;-)>>

    Why? Where is the financial incentive? The ride has looked like crap since the 1990s. People still love it ... they ride it. Who cares that if it's condition is an embarrassment.

    Big business today is all about getting away with as much as you can if you're management. Once upon a time, Disney didn't just go with the crowd. Not anymore.

    And I find that profoundly sad ... not to mention stupid.
     
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    Originally Posted By irishfan

    >>mrichmondj just wait until next fall. The MK's Haunted Mansion has some pretty cool new tricks being prepared by WDI for the show. It is about to get a new identity. Watch this space...<<

    So the rumoured refurb is true, great to hear.
     
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    Originally Posted By Spirit of 74

    <<Many on these boards say that the reason WDW parks are suffering is because of the money spent on building DVC units.>>

    Really? I don't recall reading many of those posts.

    <<The truth of the matter, as you have indicated, is that the profits from DVC have subsidized the WDW parks and provided a greater level of maintenance an d service than would otherwise be possible.

    Of course that would seem reasonable to any thinking person given the amount of construction that has gone on. If DVC were a cash or profit drain Disney would NOT be looking to create more of them. In fact it is the existence of DVC that keeps the Magic Kingdom afloat.>>


    Ah. Thanks for setting the record straight. I think your Minnesota brain has frozen over before winter.

    In 1991 when DVC started, the three Disney parks were well maintained, had a large full-time workforce with the majority having been with WDW for years, new attractions were constantly being added, new shows and seasonal offerings were more the norm and I don't recall seeing dirty parks or filthy resort rooms. I also recall my stock performing better than almost any company's.

    So, please Trippy, explain to me how DVC has kept the MK afloat because I just don't see it.

    As a matter of fact, what I see is that DVC has allowed Disney to keep things stale because they have folks like you who have prepaid for 43 years worth of vacations. If you don't like things at the parks and opt to travel elsewhere, the Mouse will just rent out your units for hundreds a night and add profit on top of more profit.

    For what DVC brings into the company, WDW should see one E-Ticket added to every park every 18 months or so.

    But that doesn't happen now does it?

    When did the last E-Ticket open at the MK? Oh yeah, the same year DVC started.


    <<If some of our intrepid reporters like the Spirit and TDLFAN do not understand this basic concept, how can they possibly be qualified to comment on any other aspect of the Disney operation?

    Long story short... they can't.>>

    Trippy, I know you're not really taking a personal shot. But even if you were, I know what my background is. I've been told by Disney high-level execs that 'You know more about the company than I do.' I've been approached by numerous online sites as well as literary agents about writing a book about WDW's history. When you can say some of the same things, I'll take your witty retorts more seriously.

    Until then ... how about dem Twins?
     
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    Originally Posted By Spirit of 74

    <<mrichmondj just wait until next fall. The MK's Haunted Mansion has some pretty cool new tricks being prepared by WDI for the show. It is about to get a new identity. Watch this space...>>

    I'll be very interested to see what WDI comes up with. An AA Eddie Murphy perhaps?

    I truly hope they can plus a classic like they seem to have no trouble doing in Anaheim.

    And has this been approved? Because I heard funds were headed to Space Mtn, Jungle Cruise and Pirates.
     
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    Originally Posted By fkurucz

    <<Why would anyone waste their time listening to Rush Limbaugh??>>

    For the same reason others listen to Al Franken: Rush and Al simply spew what their audiences want to hear.
     
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    Originally Posted By fkurucz

    >>However, the biggest problem of all is that the parks and resorts there are too expensive to operate as a business.<<

    And yet DLR seems to very profitable, even though it lacks WDW's portfolio of hotels and other amenities.
     
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    Originally Posted By leemac

    <<And has this been approved? Because I heard funds were headed to Space Mtn, Jungle Cruise and Pirates.>>

    Nope on all three counts but keep trying. WDI have been looking at pushing the boat out more at WDW's Pirates but nothing has been approved or is likely to be soon. Mansion is the closest thing to a given.
     
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    Originally Posted By Darkbeer

    >>You only have to look around at other park operators to know how difficult it is to run these sorts of businesses. Universal Studios hemorrages a lot of money for NBC Universal. General Electric is very interested in selling the Universal parks, but there aren't too many buyers interested in owning a money-losing business. Six Flags is on the ropes and doesn't have enough free cash flow to pay its debts or invest in its parks. Cedar Fair hangs on by the skin of its teeth, but doesn't generate any massive windfall.<<

    EXCUSE ME, come on...

    Cedar Fair, pays a quarterly dividend, and hasn't missed a payment, and they keep increasing. Yes, no massive windfall, just good steady profits. Is there a question due to the increased debt in buying the Paramount parks, yes, some folks are worried. But the numbers so far are right in line with expectations, and Cedar Fair Entertainment Compnay keeps making a good, steady profit.

    Universal Studios is making a profit also, the Orlando property is half owned by Blackstone, and all reports have it making a profit. Wold NBC Universal like a higher percentage, heck yes, but it is in the high single digits, which is better than most investments....

    Six Flags is the ONE company with some financial problems, but it basically comes from over extending and buying too many parks from other companies.

    You didn't mention Busch Entertainment (Basically SeaWorld and Busch Gardens), this group has brought steady profits to its parent company, Anheuser Busch.

    Here is one news story from less than a month ago (October 19th, 2006)

    <a href="http://blogs.orlandosentinel.com/business_tourism_aviation/2006/10/nbc_cuts_to_aff_1.html" target="_blank">http://blogs.orlandosentinel.c
    om/business_tourism_aviation/2006/10/nbc_cuts_to_aff_1.html</a>

    >>As NBC Universal struggles with how to deal with its struggling TV networks, talk of cuts aren't just focusing on TV programming, but possibly on the company's theme parks -- including Universal Orlando.

    The Wall Street Journal reported this morning that the company might trim off-season hours at the theme parks. The Journal also noted that last year NBC considered selling the theme parks.

    Universal Orlando posted an operating profit last year and might do so again this year. But is it going to take a hit for NBC?

    Not likely. NBC put out a statement THursday that said, essentially, that the theme parks should pursue business as usual.

    "Universal Parks & Resorts Group will continue to look for strategic growth opportunities and cost reductions at their properties in Los Angeles and Orlando," the 1,000-word statement read, in its only reference to Universal Orlando or Universal Studios-Hollywood.

    There's no question that Universal Parks & Resorts plans remain in flux, as the Journal reported. Rumor, which have circulated since NBC and Blackstone bought the parks in 2004, that NBC would turn around and sell them again, have never really subsided. One thing that was clear is that NBC still hasn't made any huge financial commitments to the parks yet. Earlier this month Universal Orlando President Bob Gault announced his retirement and at the same time Universal announced that Bill Davis would succeed him.

    But NBC's problems seem to have nothing to do with the theme parks. If anything, the theme parks are the company's revenue generator right now.<<
     
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    Originally Posted By mrichmondj

    ^^

    Apparently, you don't understand the balance sheet for the theme park business. Profits get the headline, but cash flow is the reason why Universal wants to get out of the business and why Six Flags is struggling.

    When you have to spend more money each year in capital expenditures than you make in profit, your business is cash flow negative. Unless you have another cash-rich business to steal from, you are driven into debt. Universal's profits aren't sufficient to fund the kind of expansions and upgrades necessary to keep guests coming back year after year. So, the company piles on more debt to pay for new attractions and upgrades.

    Disney was cash flow negative in theme parks throughout the late 80s and 90s. They paid for the park improvements with the mountains of cash generated by a very successful movie studio (remember the Lion King?). The negative cash flow was justified as long as the parks business kept expanding. The problem now is that the business isn't expanding at a rapid enough pace to justify dumping all the profits into new capital expenditures. For the past couple of years, Disney has significantly restrained the capital spending to remain within the cash available instead of running a cash flow negative business.

    All of this stuff is spelled out in annual reports for the publicly traded companies. It's not rocket science.
     
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    Originally Posted By mrichmondj

    << And yet DLR seems to very profitable, even though it lacks WDW's portfolio of hotels and other amenities. >>

    Where does this information come from? Though, not directly stated in the company's financial disclosures, there is occasionally fine print information in the annual report that indicates DLR doesn't pull its own weight.
     
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    Originally Posted By mrichmondj

    >>> DVC is a huge plus to the bottom line, but that is almost total profit. If you think Saratoga Springs sales are going to finance the next E-Ticket for the MK, you're wrong. <<<

    It's all in the annual reports, if you care to read them. Roughly a third of revenues is generated by admission tickets, a third by food/merchandise, and a third by hotels/resorts. That covers the revenues. So, where does the actual profit come from? Mostly from DVC sales and other activities that aren't identified. Since Disney finances all of their upgrades through operating profits, it is a very true statement to say that Saratoga Springs will pay for the next E-ticket.
     
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    Originally Posted By Inspector 57

    <<Trippy, I know you're not really taking a personal shot. But even if you were, I know what my background is. I've been told by Disney high-level execs that 'You know more about the company than I do.' I've been approached by numerous online sites as well as literary agents about writing a book about WDW's history. When you can say some of the same things, I'll take your witty retorts more seriously.>>

    Spirit, you seem VERY impressed with your own credentials and credibility. And you seem to expect us to be similarly impressed.

    Yet you don't provide us with the substantive information that would allow us to revere you as fervently as you revere yourself.

    Our loss, no doubt.
     
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    Originally Posted By Spirit of 74

    <<It's all in the annual reports, if you care to read them.>>

    I read them every year ... I'm a longtime shareholder and I like to try and comprehend the numbers.

    <<Roughly a third of revenues is generated by admission tickets, a third by food/merchandise, and a third by hotels/resorts. That covers the revenues. So, where does the actual profit come from? Mostly from DVC sales and other activities that aren't identified.>>

    So you're saying the hotels make no profit? Food and merchandise make no profit? Tix make no profit? Just revenue to cover operating expenses? So before DVC, WDW was about to close down because it never made any money ... let alone hundreds of millions in annual PROFIT?

    I want to make sure I understand your point before I call it crazy.

    Disney makes oodles of profit from the above segments.

    <<Since Disney finances all of their upgrades through operating profits, it is a very true statement to say that Saratoga Springs will pay for the next E-ticket.>>

    It's much more likely that the SS profits will be used to cover losses somewhere else be it cable TV, radio networks or consumer products.

    Although maybe I have it all wrong ... maybe those $400 hotel rooms, $73 tickets, $23 burgers, $7 slushies and $3 Cokes really have no profit in them at all to off-set all those CP and Casual CMs that make $6 an hour with no benefits.

    Nah ... try selling that to the CMs the next time you cut a benefit or the guests the next time you lower quality.
     

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