Originally Posted By disneywatcher >> Marc-DL Traveler: ...the aging simply can't be allowed to become real. << Very interesting comments about DisneySea's development and maintenance issues, which the article above points out, at least in regards to Oriental Land having to import artisans from Europe. There's no question that the many boats used as props/backdrops will require extra attention from the maintenance department (wood rot, etc.). Attention, visitors to DisneySea! Please visit in large numbers and spend happily (and from the photos and descriptions I've seen so far, I think the park deserves it!) at the stores and restaurants, because DisneySea may need a bit more TLC over its lifetime than other Disney parks.
Originally Posted By jonvn "Pretty much everything at TDL is a duplicate of the same attraction here in the states." Oh, OK. That was what they wanted when they built TDL. They wanted duplicates of what was in America. They duplicated things so exactly, in fact, that many of the counters at restaurants were set too high for the average Japanese person. "In other words TDL should pale in comparison to TDS. I would imagine that with such a spectacular park next door TDL will probably loose a few guests, at least in the beginning." If it canabilizes customers from TDL, that will be bad, because TDL barely makes a profit as it is. On the other hand, Universal Studios in Japan just had the most people ever visit a new theme park ever. One million visitors in the first month. You have to wonder, though, how many people are going to have to go to sustain these two parks, TDL and TDS, and whether that is going to be possible. Given the expense of TDS, it seems that they would need to have about 20 million people a year visit, which is more than TDL gets. I don't know if that's really going to happen.
Originally Posted By woody >>TDL barely makes a profit as it is. This is false. It has a high P/E, but it is still profitable. <a href="http://profiles.wisi.com/profiles/scripts/corpinfo.asp?cusip=C39288370&B1=Load" target="_blank">http://profiles.wisi.com/profi les/scripts/corpinfo.asp?cusip=C39288370&B1=Load</a>+Profile >>Given the expense of TDS, it seems that they would need to have about 20 million people a year visit Also false, capacity restrictions prevent it from going higher than 18 million. Weather and the down season suggests they are forecasting lower attendance than TDL to remain profitable.
Originally Posted By OrlandoBoi "it seems that they would need to have about 20 million people a year visit, which is more than TDL gets." Or just the expected capacity of guests spending huge amounts of money on merchandise and food. Something that those in the know feel is not an entirely unreasonable expectation. THIS is the park afterall that is selling its quota of 50,000 tickets per day a month in advance, don't forget. As with another recent Disney park opening, we will just have to wait and see.
Originally Posted By jonvn Yes, it is profitable, but it almost wasn't, there is a lot of credit to the Pooh ride in bringing extra dollars to the place. "Also false, capacity restrictions prevent it from going higher than 18 million. Weather and the down season suggests they are forecasting lower attendance than TDL to remain profitable." Well, that's interesting. Pressler said that because of lower costs in Japan, they can make their money back more easily than for parks built in the US. This is probably the result of that. When TDL first opened, you had to make reservations to go there, because it was booked far in advance. This sounds like a similar situation at TDS.
Originally Posted By OrlandoBoi "Yes, it is profitable, but it almost wasn't, there is a lot of credit to the Pooh ride in bringing extra dollars to the place." As YOU yourself are saying jon-it seems the facts would support that building a major new attraction with no holds barred effects and no expense spared DOES bring in the people(which equals, most importantly CASH in the suits' minds). So what are they going to do in Anaheim? Cardboard flats and limited show effects.
Originally Posted By karlg To a first approximation TDS only has to attract double the number of people that spend about 50% more money each to make the same revenue to expense ratio as DCA. Judging from the Discounts and the inability to attract higher paying guess, beating DCA on per guess spending should not be difficult (maybe by 2X or more). It is not just number of people, but how much gets spent. Lexus does not have to sell as many cars as Chevrolete to be more profitable. I'm not sure how the accounting works in Japan, but it is pretty spectacular that they are building TDS and staying in the black. I don't now how they are accounting for the investment in the park. The cost of capital is very different in Japan and that does have a significant effect. But Pressler's who great accomplishments in theme parks seems to have more to do with cost cutting and closing attractions and parades than BUILDING a great park. I think he is more spinning/justifying lackluster acceptance of Disney's recent parks (AK and DCA) and explaining away why Disney can’t do TDS like attractions in the US. It is funny how that one E-Ticket Pooh ride could have such an effect on the overall park's attendance and boost the profits of the company. Maybe there is a chance that E-Ticket rides are financially profitable, oh yeah, it has no lasting effect other than all the money it brings in and the fact that a very good attraction can last 20+ years (very sarcastic). I like TDL a lot, but it loses something without Main Street station and the awning over International/Main Street. Overall I like TDL better than WDW MK but not as much as DL. I found that the attraction seem to have the pick of the version of each US attraction and Splash Mountain was better than its US counterparts. I like the overall effect and layout of DL more. It does seem to be a tall order to fill both TDS and TDL but I expect that the revenue per guest will be a lot higher on the combined parks. I don't think Disney could have built all of TDS next to Disneyland, there is just not the space, but they certainly could have made a lot smarter BUSINESS decision than DCA. They need a park that generates MORE revenue PER guest. The real-estate is too valuable for a low capacity, low revenue per guest, park. Disney has been stilling on their laurels when it comes to theme parks in the US. They have lost their competitive edge. The vision of the current US Disney theme park executives seems to be so low that even if TDS is a big success, they will explain it away as something that can only happen in Japan. Karl
Originally Posted By jonvn "As YOU yourself are saying jon-it seems the facts would support that building a major new attraction with no holds barred effects and no expense spared DOES bring in the people(which equals, most importantly CASH in the suits' minds)." ME? I have never said it doesn't. There was a long discussion about this before. When a new attraction shows up, it generally does bump the attendance for a bit. The effect wanes almost completely after about 2 years. What are they going to do in Anaheim? If I knew, I'd tell you. "they certainly could have made a lot smarter BUSINESS decision than DCA. " Maybe yes, maybe no. Without the exact numbers, it's really impossible to tell, but it is interesting that it appears that those who like the park think it was a good business decision and those who don't see it as a bad one. I think there is just a bit of bias in these comments. So, unless we get to look at the balance sheets, which I reallyl don't think Disney will supply to us, we all have to simply speculate based on our own gut feelings.
Originally Posted By Marc -DL Traveler No time now but, karlg, I was basically with you until the end of your last sentence. An investment like the one made on DisneySea *can* only happen in Japan right now. It's really (and sadly) that simple. (I'm just going to keep driving it in...) And Jon wrote: "This is probably the result of that." Paul Pressler said much more than what you just attributed every difference to there. I feel he especially hit it on the head in mentioning the parks' much broader demographic in Japan and higher per guest spending. There's a lot more he could have said (and I'm saying it). The lower cost of money will only be a factor while there's still outstanding debt (which resulted from the park's construction). And Woody, keep those facts comin'! Marc p.s. The Pooh shop next to Hunny Hunt is now the second most profitable Disney branded retail location on earth (after the Confectionary, TDL's main omiyage store, located a 5 minute walk away). But there's virtually no Pooh at DisneySea... Now *that's* confidence!
Originally Posted By OrlandoBoi "But there's virtually no Pooh at DisneySea" You can say THAT again Marc!!! ; )
Originally Posted By jonvn "I feel he especially hit it on the head in mentioning the parks' much broader demographic in Japan and higher per guest spending. There's a lot more he could have said (and I'm saying it)." There are numerous reasons to feel that the park has a good chance of making money. The lower cost of money is, as you say, important while the park is still in debt. However, having a higher cost of money keeps the park in debt longer. Large amounts of high interest debt were a major cause for EDL's problems. Something like TDS is just not going to get built here. Even if it did make a profit, it would likely be decades (like EDL) before it finally got into the black. Somehow, and for whatever reason, they've got it figured that TDS can make some money. Some analysts in Japan don't agree, and I would assume they understand their market better than I do. No matter what, I am sure the place will be popular. Popularity, however, has not been quite enough for TDL. It's profitability is not that strong. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.
Originally Posted By Marc -DL Traveler Jon wrote: "Something like TDS is just not going to get built here. Even if it did make a profit, it would likely be decades (like EDL) before it finally got into the black." It's refreshing that you can see that, Jon. It's an unfortunate fact that a lot of people refuse to accept (or want to believe?). Of course, as I believe you're aware, EDL(DLP) was also a unique situation in which France's real estate market collapsed and the Company's plan of buying up excess land and then selling it to service the debt became unworkable (what a nightmare...). I've heard financial analysts say some pretty crazy things (Like people in Japan were tiring of TDL when it suffered a downturn due to bad weather). I'm curious, which analysts are you referring to? "Popularity, however, has not been quite enough for TDL. It's profitability is not that strong. It will be interesting to see how this plays out." By American standards - No. By Japanese (and OLC's) - Yes. It's another one of the big differences. Initially, it's what I thought Mr. Pressler was referring to in his interview here at LP, but he was talking about interest rates. Both differences have profound effects. So many things do... Marc
Originally Posted By woody >>>Jon wrote: "Something like TDS is just not going to get built here. Even if it did make a profit, it would likely be decades (like EDL) before it finally got into the black." >>It's refreshing that you can see that, Jon. It's an unfortunate fact that a lot of people refuse to accept (or want to believe?). What's so refreshing about an unfortunate truth? That DCA was the only alternative to the great park known as TDS. The contrast between TDS and DCA is so extreme, it makes DCA appear even worse. The good thing is we can expect the park to be "great" in 10 years with absolutely no assurance as to what that really means. If Disney/MGM is the model, then I'm very sad. Attack of the Clones.
Originally Posted By jonvn "It's refreshing that you can see that, Jon. It's an unfortunate fact that a lot of people refuse to accept (or want to believe?)." I don't think a lot of people understand the costs involved and the potential for making that money back involved with theme parks. "Of course, as I believe you're aware, EDL(DLP) was also a unique situation in which France's real estate market collapsed and the Company's plan of buying up excess land and then selling it to service the debt became unworkable (what a nightmare...)." There were many, many problems with EDL. The real estate issue was a big one. Other issues revolved around them misjudging the sorts of souvenirs people would want to buy, cost of employees, and most important, overspending at the beginning of the project to such an extent that they had to borrow money at high interest rates to complete the park. The company tries to put out the idea that they "built too many hotels" but that's not entirely the whole story. If they built just a couple hotels too many, you'd think they wouldn't have gotten so skittish about building expansive and elaborate theme parks like EDL was. But what did they cut back? Certainly not hotel construction in WDW. They cut back on expenses incurred in building newer parks. They are now less elaborate and less expensive. "I'm curious, which analysts are you referring to?" You know, I've been trying to find that off and on for a few days, but haven't been able to find what I read. What I did read, though, was while everyone expects the place to be very crowded, that there is concern that so much was spent on it, that it will have difficulty in maintaining profitability. Not that it won't be popular, but that even with popularity, it still might not make enough money to sustain itself. "By American standards - No. By Japanese (and OLC's) - Yes" Last year, TDL was on the road to losing money, even with all its visitors. Even if the Japanese standards for profit are lower than Americans, I can't imagine they still find losses acceptable.
Originally Posted By marc -dl traveler Woody wrote: "What's so refreshing about an unfortunate truth? That DCA was the only alternative to the great park known as TDS." You said the word yourself, Woody - Truth. I feel as much frustration and sadness as anyone that economic realities don't allow for a park on the order of DisneySea in the U.S. (And yet again, I feel more should have been spent on DCA, but the figure could never begin to approach the investment made in DisneySea.) But, as a journalist and student of history, "the truth" is my priority. It's the elusive goal I strive to acquire and convey. Another word is "Fairness". I feel Michael Eisner, Paul Pressler, and others deserve a measure of criticism for some of their actions, particularly regarding the lowered maintenance standards at the American parks. (And the real way to effect that is level-headed letters to the Company and comments at City Hall (and the like). But the criticisms of "They were to cheap to give us DisneySea" don't take the real world into account and are blatantly unfair. Which leads to another word - Credibility. Each uneducated and/or bitter online attack on the Walt Disney Company (especially when directed at specific individuals) chips away at credibility the of the online community as a whole. That's not fair either... but it's another unfortunate reality. I see very many of the "comparisons" that have been made between DCA and DisneySea as sad violations of the three concepts I mentioned above. And here I am in this seemingly unusual position... I've closely watched both parks evolve from construction site to theme park and have gone out of my way to educate myself as much as I can about the creative, financial and social/economic factors have made them what they are. If there's one thing I've learned, and it came as no surprise, none of it is simple. By the way, I feel what makes my situation the most unusual is the fact that I'm in a position to talk about this subject online. There are many people within the Company and elsewhere who are far more educated than I am in this area, but they don't feel they can risk going online with it (and/or they see what an uphill battle it is and say "why bother?"). It was gratifying to see Doobie pose not one, but a series of questions to Paul Pressler on the subject of DisneySea. I give him real credit for it. I also give Mr. Pressler credit for, for the most part, directly addressing those questions. Obviously, with all the strong emotions coming from the fans, it's a delicate subject. I particularly appreciate his references to Japan's unique economic realities. For whatever it's worth to you, I know first hand that his responses were not excuses, but rather a frank explanation of some of the unfortunate reality. I gotta get back to work... which at least in this case means getting back out to the TDR. So right now I'll just say in response to Jon that, yeah it seems there were a lot of mistakes made there near Paris and it's interesting how much of it was based in arrogance. OLC's most recent fiscal year taught me a lot. Yes, they were on the road to losing money. It seemed unavoidable. A hellishly hot summer (it was bad) had cut deeply into the park's numbers. But when it cooled off they came back and they came back and they came back. They turned the year around, breaking the parks quarterly attendance records, a surprise to nearly everyone. The situation helped me to understand that many, many people need their TDL... They *need* it. Its escape has become a part of this high pressure society, and tough economic times only help it. Marc (phew... I'm drained
Originally Posted By jmcobery Dear Orlando BOI, Yes I have to agree that we American's are spoiled! "BUT" my comments about putting a Disney Sea park park in the #1 vacation capital of the WORLD, only reflect's from what we see coming from the Tokyo Seas pictures, that we would love to see that beauty of a park (Mate) here in the states. I would also tell you I would like to see a Disneyland down under, we would be there in a Australian minute. The Cobery Family
Originally Posted By woody >>>I see very many of the "comparisons" that have been made between DCA and DisneySea as sad violations of the three concepts I mentioned above. What is true in DCA is also true in the differences!!! I don't see how making "comparisons" is not truthful. It hurts when I see those side by side photos on MousePlanet. Truth - DCA in no way compares with TDS. Fairness - Let's assign accountability to those who deserve it. Okay? Any suggested names? Credibility - I think there's enough of the "shooting the messenger" thing going on here. Despite the nature of the perceived misunderstanding, I remain hopeful that TDS DESERVES MY HARD EARNED DOLLAR once I exchange it to YENs, of course. Peace be with you at TDR.
Originally Posted By marc -dl traveler Sometimes I *also* say "why bother"... but this isn't one of them. I don't expect everyone to understand. I'll just keep plugging awaaay... "Fairness - Let's assign accountability to those who deserve it. Okay? Any suggested names?" Oh I just can't pass this one up! Ok, if you really need names, how about (in no particular order): Douglas MacArthur - China (mainly through Korea) - Perry - Nara Buddhism - the Charter Oath - San Francisco - Fukuzawa Yukichi - the Meiji Constitution - the Japan/United States Mutual Security Assistance Agreement - smart Japanese women... Ok, that's not a name, but this is fun! All these names and many more add up to DisneySea being nicer than DCA. Marc (a shot messenger , who's making his last post of the day... from Ikspiari)
Originally Posted By dlmusic I think that the best way to describe DCA to TDS as this: There is a really refined perfect recipe from an expert chef for apple pie. Using the complicated instructions and varied ingredients you come up with a spectacular pie with more layers of flavor than ever before. Than there's another pie, that's a simple recipe that you downloaded on somebody's personal website. Now obviously it won't turn out as wonderful as the pie above, but it still tastes pretty good and is not completely uncomparable. And than there's the frozen pie where you microwave it. Sure it may look like a pie, and smell like one but when you bite in you notice the taste is not there, and you are not satsified. Now DCA should be the pie in the middle, and TDS is the pie on the top. But DCA really is (for many fans) the pie on the bottom and that's why so many people compare the two. What's really sad as while there is a seemingly huge difference in price between the pie in the middle and the pie on the bottom, it's not that great at all. With just a little TLC and effort the person preparing the dish could have made the pie in the middle. Obviously I do not expect TDS in America. It's a ridiculous concept to think that they should build it here fiscally, and it's not smart for them to stretch out their company and hope that it works. However quality is not always expensive, sometimes it's just who's bringing it to you. I found Animal Kingdom to be a great park even though it was lacking "rides". It is close enough to TDS that I really don't feel bad that we got Animal Kingdom instead. But DCA is just so devoid of imagination and craftmanship in too many areas that it's too big of a difference not to be at least a little envious. If just one attraction at DCA could equal one of the headliner attractions at TDS, I would be less inclined to compare the two. As it stands right now, it shows me that Disney is only willing to spend money if they are absolutely guaranteed they will make X amount and no less. Gone are the days of swallowing a little profit for some quality. Sigh. Oh well, I am excited about visiting TDS, I'm just worried I won't want to come back.
Originally Posted By karlg I would not have built TDS in the US all at once due to the cost of capital. I would not have built it all in one place or one new park. I would have opened attractions and lands over a series of years at both DL and WDW. This would get return coming in sooner and with the continual upgrading would get people to keep coming back to see what was new. This what Disneyland did through the 1960’s. There are a lot of differences between Japan and the US. The cost of building things is generally lower in the US for example. In WDW Disney makes a lot of money from hotels where this is more of a limited opportunity in Japan with TDL about 20 minutes from downtown. I can’t believe the cost of reclaiming land is higher in Tokyo bay than in Florida. You can line up the excuses for why not and ignore the reasons why it would make sense. This is the “half truth” part of the argument. For 3X the capital outlay OLC in TDS has an asset and where the Disney Company has a problem with DCA. Even many of the people that like DCA say that it has to have more spent on it to make it a viable park. It is pretty sad that in all of WDW this year, all they added was a spinner to the MK and a giant shop under a hat to Disney/MGM. WDW next major attraction is not scheduled to open until 2003. That is the kind of question I would like to see Mr. Pressler answer. No amount of hand waving can change the fact that they are pumping the money out of the parks and not reinvesting it into them. Mr. Pressler is lining up his excuses for why he could not do great things in America. When you get into this line of thinking, then no significant expenditures make sense. I would suggest that the biggest problem is may be their lack of vision. Karl
