Originally Posted By RoadTrip The Tea Party favorites are dropping like flies... first Bachmann, then Perry, now Cain. Even Republicans are starting to see that the Tea Party is all talk with nothing to back it up.
Originally Posted By DyGDisney But you're making an assumption based on what YOU would think, right? Have you actually asked any Tea Party followers what they think? The ones I know are die hard, they will back whoever the Tea Party backs. Even if it changes weekly.
Originally Posted By wahooskipper The Republicans will rally around their eventual nominee...and they always do. I don't think it is a cakewalk for President Obama by any stretch and as much as have no enthusiasm of the potential candidates on either side of the aisle I think the Republican will have pretty fair odds. Unless, by some miracle, the economy starts to turn around.
Originally Posted By RoadTrip It seems clear to me that the Tea Party will end up backing Gingrich, and that is OK with me. Even if you disagree with his political point of view, at least Gingrich has some DC experience and is not a blithering idiot. Did you see Cain try to answer the question about Libya recently? He seemed to have no idea as to where the hell Libya even was. I felt like yelling out to him "You know... North Africa, Gaddafi, NATO action... sound familiar?"
Originally Posted By Kar2oonMan >>The Republicans will rally around their eventual nominee...and they always do.<< But it is about moderates. They *might* go for Romney or Huntsman, but not with a lot of enthusiasm. The GOP has tried their damdest to paint Obama as an extremist, and he's looked quite moderate (too moderate to the left) on balance. And how well would some of the extreme candidates do against Obama in a debate? Only Romney and Huntsman as far as I can tell, would have the ability to look reasonable. Perry has been a washout, and Gingrich is moving up only because Cain is flopping. Gingrich has no chance of winning. I don't think it will be a cakewalk, but I think the standard rules of politics haven't applied for some time now. Obama would have to have one of those George Bush I moments, where he was amazed by grocery store checkout scanners, to lose the likeability factor.
Originally Posted By DDMAN26 I liked Huntsman and he was the only GOP candidate I would have voted for. As it stands, the part of the ballot that says POTUS will be left blank.
Originally Posted By mawnck It's a 4-way dead heat in Iowa. And one of the four is Ron Paul. <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-15/romney-two-way-race-is-now-four-way-republican-dead-heat-in-iowa-caucuses.html" target="_blank">http://www.bloomberg.com/news/...ses.html</a>
Originally Posted By wahooskipper I'm not sure Obama ever had the likeability factor with Moderates on either side. He has this pompous thing he just can't escape. But, better to be pompous and intelligent than pompous and not. Conservatives will rally...no matter if they are moderate or not...because beating Obama will be more important to them than the principle of who they select as their nominee. Sad situation to say the least...but the truth. And, Obama's concerns will be if he can energize that big group of typically non-voters who went out for him the first time. That remains to be seen. A lot of those folks are the very folks who have been unemployed for a couple of years now. I wouldn't be surprised if voter turnout is relatively low and, if that is the case, I think it could be anyone's game to win...or lose.
Originally Posted By Kar2oonMan >>Obama's concerns will be if he can energize that big group of typically non-voters who went out for him the first time.<< True. >>A lot of those folks are the very folks who have been unemployed for a couple of years now. << Also true. But then again, you have some of the GOP candidates telling them things like "those will will not work shall not eat." Or that they should blame themselves, not Wall Street, for their troubles. Not exactly a message designed to attract them.
Originally Posted By DDMAN26 <<The GOP has tried their damdest to paint Obama as an extremist, and he's looked quite moderate (too moderate to the left) on balance.>> Which why he will likely win because it's the Independents who decide elections in this country. Not the right nor the left and it's why I always say they're the same. But I've noticed something with this country And that is we have a generation of adults that promoted the idea that nobody loses and if you lose it's unfair. And you're seeing that in the past couple elections. Instead of sucking it up and accepting that you're party lost. You protest everything the President does, like giving the poor free health care. You don't like that the President wants to create some extra jobs. Or you try to recall a Governor because he required you to pay a little more on your health care(which you still have by the way)or you have to work an extra hour during the day. Or you get two extra kids in your class. So instead we protest everything an elected official does because we can't handle that we didn't win. Guess what you don't always win, so suck it up.
Originally Posted By Dabob2 <You protest everything the President does, like giving the poor free health care.> We've had that for decades. It's called Medicaid. The Affordable Care Act was something else entirely. With the economy where it is, Obama is nowhere near guaranteed re-election. But he's nowhere near guaranteed defeat either, because a). most people, even if they're frustrated with the slowness of the recovery, recognize that this mess was not of his making, and b). the weakness of the GOP field. Seriously, I don't think there's ever been a field this weak from either of the major parties in my lifetime. You've got a guy who should be sailing by now (Romney), with all the money he has and the GOP penchant for nominating the #2 guy from last time... but he's not. The base of the party can't stand him and has been flailing around looking for an alternative. Candidate after candidate has stepped up to be the anti-Romney, and candidate after candidate has proven to not be up to the task. I thought for weeks that the base was just punishing Perry for his remarks on immigration by telling pollsters they liked Cain, but that Perry was who they really wanted to love, and would come back to him, having delivered that message. But Perry has made that impossible with his embarrassing performances. So now they're on to Gingrich. Something tells me that after all this sturm und drang that the party will do the usual thing and choose Romney after all. And then you've got a guy who isn't very likable, comes off as a phony, changes his "heart-felt" positions like most people change socks, and whose primary claim to fame is making millions off of laying people off. So: will the GOP base be energized enough by their hatred of Obama to come out in big numbers to vote for a guy they don't like? Will the first-timers from 2008 be energized to come out for Obama again? Can the Democrats tap into the Occupy movement and resurgent union feeling (especially in the midwest)? Will moderates be upset enough at the economy to vote for Romney, or will they see him as having pandered too far to the right during the primaries? All questions I don't think are answerable yet. If you put a gun to my head and asked me "will Obama be re-elected?" I think I'd hem and haw more than Cain did on Libya.
Originally Posted By wahooskipper One thing that hasn't been mentioned, but I think is worth scrutiny, is the press role in keeping this entire process undecided. If Romney basically had it in the bag right now then what in the world would the media have to talk about? Am I jaded? Sure I am. But, I think there is some truthiness to it.
Originally Posted By Dabob2 Oh I think there's something to that, yes. The media loves a horserace. Having said that, if someone were just running away with it in the polls, they'd probably just be on to yakking about Romney (or whoever) vs. Obama incessantly. When no one can climb above 30 in the polls (usually more like 25), then it's legitimate to say that it's wide open.
Originally Posted By gadzuux >> It seems clear to me that the Tea Party will end up backing Gingrich, and that is OK with me. Even if you disagree with his political point of view, at least Gingrich has some DC experience and is not a blithering idiot. << Gingrich may be able to attract and handful of GOP moderates that are left, but he certainly cannot attract the teapartiers. Sure, this is the guy that called Obama a "Kenyan Colonialist" - they'll love that; but he also sat on a couch in front of the Capitol with Nancy Pelosi calling for more aggressive stance fighting climate change; he shut down the federal government in a snit about where his seat was on Air Force One; he said that banks that are too big to fail should be broken up; that maybe we should reinact the Glass-Steagall act that prevents banks from engaging in both retail banking and investment banking; and he famously denigrated Clinton for his dalliance with Monica while carrying on a full-blown affair while his wife lay dying - serving her divorce papers while she was in the hospital. His current (third) wife Calista was his mistress during the entire period. And finally, he was removed from the position of Speaker of the House and sent packing from DC - not by democrats, but by his fellow republicans for his corrosive and corrupting effects on internal GOP politics. In sum, he's got more baggage than Queen Elizabeth on tour. Not a winning combination for tea partiers.
Originally Posted By DyGDisney >>>he famously denigrated Clinton for his dalliance with Monica while carrying on a full-blown affair while his wife lay dying - serving her divorce papers while she was in the hospital. His current (third) wife Calista was his mistress during the entire period. <<< So you're saying he's been faithful to his mistress, right?
Originally Posted By DyGDisney >>And finally, he was removed from the position of Speaker of the House and sent packing from DC - not by democrats, but by his fellow republicans for his corrosive and corrupting effects on internal GOP politics. << The GOP suffers from short term memory loss, so don't be so sure.
Originally Posted By RoadTrip He was removed as speaker by Republicans? That is a GOOD thing!! His daughter says that her mother WANTED the divorce before becoming critically ill, and that Gingrich was not messing around without her knowledge or tacit consent. Besides, what politician in DC hasn't played "hide the wiener" in places other than home? The difference with Gingrich is that all his baggage is known in advance... it doesn't have the shock value of Cain's unique take on delivering sausage pizza.
Originally Posted By patrickegan Hey KOOL AID! Government doesn't create jobs... business does. If it did the POTUS wouldn't be staring 9%+ unemployment in the face. He can give a speech and deliver the sausage pizza to the american people(Solyndra) How many jobs where created there? What about Libya? Imagine the howl if it were Bush and Cheney?? That Bush was an idiot, he didn't sound anything like my prof at community college.
