Originally Posted By DAR Looking through this nobody saw the Huckabee surge coming. Not sure it's going to last though.
Originally Posted By JohnS1 My prediction: Obama will edge out Clinto for the dem nomination. McCain will continue to rise as Huck and Mitt fall. In the end it will be Obama versus McCain, and Obama will narrowly beat McCain.
Originally Posted By SuperDry Here's a question: what do you think the noise machine will do if McCain gets the Republican nomination? In particular, Drudge Report and Rush Limbaugh have had it out for McCain for years. They seem genuinely scared that McCain might get the nomination, as he doesn't support many of what "the base" thinks is important. But if McCain were to get the nomination, what would happen? Would someone like Huckabee put forth a third-party candidacy, even though it was almost certain to guarantee a Democratic victory? Or, would they more or less just "stay home" for the election, which might achieve the same goal?
Originally Posted By Dabob2 My guess if McCain is the nominee is that the noise machine would suddenly discover what they like about him, and pretend they never said all the nasty stuff they have said about them over the years. They're very good at rewriting their own history.
Originally Posted By Kar2oonMan >>My guess if McCain is the nominee is that the noise machine would suddenly discover what they like about him, and pretend they never said all the nasty stuff they have said about them over the years.<< Yep. In the end, they'll support whoever gets the nod and not mention whatever flaws they have been talking about prior. Limbaugh, in his own words, has been a "water carrier" for people he didn't truly buy into in the name of supporting the GOP. He'll do it again. Of course, same will happen on the other side, too. After all the talk about the importance of experience and so forth, should Obama get the nomination, no one on the Democratic side will mention it again. Looking at the GOP candidates, there's no one that's going to make them all happy. Each of the front runners has plenty of baggage and plenty of positions that could be seen as "too moderate" for the hard liners. I think a lot of GOP voters are going to be closing their eyes and telling themselves "it's the lesser of two evils" come next November as they pull that lever.
Originally Posted By SingleParkPassholder If Obama gets it (and I shudder at the prospect), you'd think the Dems have enough sense to add a seasoned VP candidate with the promise he'll have even more seasoned appointees, which of course would undercut his whole "change" theme.
Originally Posted By jmoore1966 I see Hillary getting the Democratic nomination. The Dems still love her, even if Oprah is on Obama's side. Can Obama count on the black vote? Last I heard not all blacks consider him black, or black enough. Maybe he can get some pointers from Clarence Thomas and Bill Cosby on how to cope with it. I see the Republican nod going to Guliani -- although he's not my favorite candiate and I don't know why people like him. The 9/11 appeal wore off long ago -- especially after nearly falling asleep at one of his speeches in person. McCain seems past his prime -- dang, too bad they didn't nominate him 8 years ago. Romney has too many obstacles to overcome -- Huckabee, same as Romney. I would prefer Romney over Guiliani, but I don't think its going to happen. Hillary vs. Guiliani -- probably Guiliani because for some reason people seem to like him and Hillary is only likable to hard-line Democrats.
Originally Posted By gadzuux The christian right bloc will not vote for guiliani. He may get the nomination, but not the white house. He's pro-abortion, he's got too many wives, too many 'morals' scandals, and he's perceived - rightly - as a northeast urban effete. I've predicted this in other threads, but we may actually see a brokered convention this year, with several candidates holding substantial numbers of delagates. I certainly hope so - can you imagine a political convention that was interesting to watch?
Originally Posted By EdisYoda My bold prediction: 47% of those eligible to vote will, and the remaining 53% will complain about who won.
Originally Posted By woody It's still an open field for Republican candidates, but in the long run, I think Romney might pull it off. It's Obama nomination to lose.
Originally Posted By Kar2oonMan >>My bold prediction: 47% of those eligible to vote will, and the remaining 53% will complain about who won.<< LOL!!! Hey, this is for BOLD prediction, not sure things, EdisYoda!
Originally Posted By vbdad55 I am actually hoping McCain will get the GOP nod because maybe, just maybe the more certist portion of the party can shut up and cut off the nut squad on the far right. If it is not McCain I am hoping that it is Hillary on the Dem side - because after that they all scare the huckabee out of me as far as running a country.
Originally Posted By BigJim89 ^Agree with you 100% on Mccain. He is a man of true convictions who has the ability to unite Americans and doesn't bow to the extremests on either sides. Mccain is the only one with a true understanding of war/national security. As a republican, I hope Mccain wins because he is the only one likely to defeat any of the top Democrats. He also is the only Republican who will actually compromise with the likely Dem majority in congress on issues of Social Security, the environment/energy while taking a strong stand on national security and pork spending.
Originally Posted By SingleParkPassholder <a href="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/3/3d/Vietcapturejm01.jpg" target="_blank">http://upload.wikimedia.org/wi kipedia/en/3/3d/Vietcapturejm01.jpg</a> "On October 26, 1967, McCain was flying as part of a 20-plane attack against a thermal power plant in central Hanoi, a heavily defended target area that had previously been off-limits to U.S. raids. McCain's A-4 Skyhawk was shot down during its approach run by a Soviet-made SA-2 anti-aircraft missile. McCain fractured both arms and a leg in being hit and ejecting from his plane. He nearly drowned after he parachuted into Truc Bach Lake in Hanoi. After he regained consciousness, a mob gathered around him, spat on him, kicked him and stripped him of his clothing. Others crushed his shoulder with the butt of a rifle and bayoneted him in his left foot and abdominal area; he was then transported to Hanoi's main prison. Although badly wounded, his captors refused to put him in the hospital, deciding he would soon die anyway; they beat and interrogated him, but McCain only offered his name, rank, serial number, and date of birth. Only when the North Vietnamese discovered that his father was a top admiral did they give him medical care and announce his capture; at this point, two days after it went down, McCain's plane going missing and his subsequent appearance as a POW made the front page of The New York Times. McCain spent six weeks in a hospital, receiving marginal care, was interviewed by a French television reporter whose report was carried on CBS, and was observed by a variety of North Vietnamese, including the famous General Vo Nguyen Giap, many of whom assumed that he must be part of America's political-military-economic elite. Now having lost 50 pounds, in a chest cast, and with his hair turned white, McCain was sent to a prisoner-of-war camp in Hanoi in December 1967, into a cell with two other Americans who did not expect him to live a week (one was Bud Day, a future Medal of Honor recipient); they nursed McCain and kept him alive. In March 1968, McCain was put into solitary confinement, where he would be for two years. In July 1968, McCain's father was named Commander-in-Chief, Pacific Command (CINCPAC), stationed in Honolulu and commander of all U.S. forces in the Vietnam theater. McCain was immediately offered a chance to return home early: the North Vietnamese wanted a mercy-showing propaganda coup for the outside world, and a message that only privilege mattered that they could use against the other POWs. McCain turned down the offer of repatriation due to the Code of Conduct of "first in, first out": he would only accept the offer if every man taken in before him was released as well. McCain's refusal to be released was even remarked upon by North Vietnamese officials to U.S. envoy Averell Harriman at the ongoing Paris Peace Talks." I love this part: "On one occasion when McCain was physically coerced to give the names of members of his squadron, he supplied them the names of the Green Bay Packers' offensive line." All the above and more is from <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_McCain" target="_blank">http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/J ohn_McCain</a> One reason I posted all that is on many occasions I have said I have reservations about his age and health. If he were to win, he's be 72 when he took office. Given all that he's been through, I just don't see him being able to overcome the concerns about his health and age.
Originally Posted By SingleParkPassholder Age issue aside and as much as I admire his war record, there's no way I vote for him.
Originally Posted By Dabob2 I agree with BigJim and McCain is probably the most electable Republican in a general election. No one's flawless, but the other GOP candidates just have at least one huge flaw apiece that is already being exploited by their rivals and are already somewhat "damaged goods" before the general election race even starts. Each alienates a certain slice of the GOP voter, with that slice possibly sitting home in November if he's the nominee. I suppose McCain does too, but I think it's a smaller slice and to a lesser degree. So I think he's the most electible in a general election. But I agree with SPP that age could become an issue for him. About every 4th time I see him on TV he just looks... old. Most of the time he doesn't, but for whatever reason (the exhausting schedule, or he doesn't realize the cameras are on him) some days he does look old and even a little feeble at times.
Originally Posted By gadzuux Yes - he's old. That presents a few problems - one issue is his overall health and stamina, but also that he's your grandfather's candidate. He represents the last of the "old school" who are fading from the scene. He would have made a fine president in 2000 but for the dirty tricks foisted on him by his own party. The GOP eat their own. But aside from his age, he's got at least two more pieces of heavy baggage - his hawkish stance on iraq, which is out of step with almost every american, and his unpopular position on immigration which would also alienate GOP loyalists. So 1) age, 2) iraq, 3) immigration. Nominating mccain in `08 would be like when they nominated bob dole. Being the GOP candidate for president shouldn't be used as an honorarium for a politician at the twilight of their career. Which is not to take away or downplay his lifetime of honor and integrity. Just that those traits don't get you very far in the republican party.
Originally Posted By BigJim89 <<But aside from his age, he's got at least two more pieces of heavy baggage - his hawkish stance on iraq, which is out of step with almost every american, and his unpopular position on immigration which would also alienate GOP loyalists.>> I'll agree with you on his age but on Iraq, he was the only candidate to question the original Bush/Rummy strategy suggesting the Petreas strategy from day one; a strategy that at leat appears to be an improvement. On immigration I somewhat disagree with him but here's some food for thought when Bush won in the general election in 04 he did so with 44 percent of the hispanic vote, anything less could have cost him the election. Just something to consider. Thus again I will repeat Mccain is the most electable Rep in the race
